We want to turn to some breaking news. Our Steve Leeman joining us now with that breaking news. Steve, over to you, Frank.Thanks very much. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson has published a broad and sweeping criticism of the Federal Reserve in an issue which is now online and we've read the whole thing uh or most of the whole thing uh in the magazine called the International Economy. Uh in the article he calls for an internal Fed review of its policy and all of the things it does and even suggests that the r ...

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent blasted the Federal Reserve for putting its own independence at risk through “mission creep” and called for an independent review of the US central bank, including its monetary policy https://t.co/cCjOGbPjMa ...

Group 1 - Stephen Miran, nominated by President Trump for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, may be confirmed in time for the mid-September rate-setting meeting [1][5] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut rates in September following Chairman Jerome Powell's indication of a softer policy stance during his Jackson Hole address [1] - The FOMC consists of 12 voting members, including the seven governors of the Federal Reserve Board and the president of the New York Fed [2] Group 2 - Miran's nomination follows the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, which Trump described as a "pleasant surprise" allowing for a candidate more aligned with his economic agenda [6] - Trump has intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to 1% to stimulate economic growth, while Powell has maintained a key borrowing rate between 4.25% and 4.5% [9] - If Trump successfully removes Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, he would gain a majority of appointments on the Fed's board, enhancing his influence over U.S. monetary policy [10][11]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 FED RATE CUT ODDS IN SEPTEMBER JUMPS TO 99% 🚀 https://t.co/SxFUYZMCcw ...

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates sooner due to Trump's tariff policies potentially increasing inflation [1] - Concerns exist regarding potential inflation pressure and a weakening labor market, despite rising stock and bond markets [1] Investment Opportunities & Risks - The video promotes IBKR (Interactive Brokers) as a global investment platform with access to 150 markets, emphasizing low costs and flexible capital for diversified investments [1] - The content serves educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, highlighting the risks associated with all investments [1] Disclaimers - The channel explicitly states it is not a financial advisor and all investment decisions are the individual's responsibility [1] - The channel disclaims any guarantee of investment gains or losses, emphasizing the importance of individual research and due diligence [1]

President Trump’s sprint to take control of the Federal Reserve played out in a striking split-screen fashion on Thursday, just two weeks before the central bank’s next policy meeting https://t.co/NgvRUcLlFI ...

Economic Activity & Labor Market - Most of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reported little or no change in economic activity overall [1] - 11 of the 12 Federal Reserve districts describe little or no net change in overall employment levels [2] - Real wage growth seems dismal, weighing on consumer spending and activity [1][4][5] Inflation & Prices - Price growth is characterized as moderate or modest in ten of the 12 districts [3] - Strong input price growth is outpacing moderate selling prices, impacting the inflation landscape [3] - Tariffs are creating price pressures, but weakening real wages are causing demand to retract [4][5] Monetary Policy & Fed Decision - The market widely expects a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming Fed meeting [6] - Economic uncertainty and tariffs are frequently cited as negative factors [5][13] - Weak local conditions in Kansas City, presided over by a hawkish member, could influence voting for a rate cut [7][8][9][10] - A new Fed board member could advocate for a rate cut, potentially influencing discussions [16] - There is enough evidence to warrant a cut, but the timing (September vs later) is uncertain [14][15]

So let's start with the latest. We're hearing reports that the treasury secretary could begin in his Fed chair as soon as this week. Who, in your mind do you want to see taking over from Chairman Powell.I'm not I'm not going to comment on individual candidates, obviously. But Jay Powell term as chairman ends in May. And so it makes sense that they should start the interview process.I think the main thing for the leader, the next leader of the Fed, has to be somebody who has strong grounding in economics and ...

Global Economic Outlook - 全球经济分裂为通胀和通缩两个极端，给经济带来前所未有的挑战 [2] - G20 国家的通货膨胀率仍然维持在 3.8%，预计至少在 2026 年才能达到中央银行的目标 [4] - 中国面临需求驱动型通缩，房地产市场崩溃导致消费者信心下降 [22][23][24] Inflation Drivers - 疫情后的通货膨胀是由前所未有的财政刺激、供应链混乱和宽松的货币政策同时冲击造成的 [5][6] - 欧洲央行的分析表明，2022 年企业利润占欧元区通货膨胀的三分之二，而历史平均水平为三分之一 [10] - 乌克兰和俄罗斯合计供应全球 30% 的小麦、20% 的玉米和 80% 的葵花籽油，战争扰乱了这些资源流动，导致商品价格上涨 [10][11] - 美联储研究估计，乌克兰战争直接导致 2022 年全球通货膨胀增加 1.3 个百分点，相当于全球经济额外增加 1.3 万亿美元的成本 [12] Deflationary Pressures in China - 中国房地产市场占经济的 30%，占家庭财富的 70%，房地产价格下跌 15% 到 30% 不等 [23] - 中国现在生产了全球 70% 的太阳能电池板、60% 的电动汽车和 75% 的电池，国内需求疲软导致产能过剩，只能以极低的价格出口 [25][26] - 摩根大通估计，中国的通货紧缩可能会使全球核心商品通货膨胀率降低 70 个基点 [31] Central Bank Policies and Divergence - 美联储在 18 个月内将利率从 0% 提高到 5.5%，这是 40 年来最快的紧缩周期 [20] - 中国人民银行正在放松货币政策，但由于信心不足和债务负担沉重，效果不佳 [41] - 各国央行政策分化，美国和欧洲的债券可能因降息而上涨，而中国的债券收益率受到抑制，日本的收益率则在几十年后首次上升 [43] Structural Inflationary Forces - 气候变化导致干旱摧毁农作物，洪水破坏供应链，热浪屠杀牲畜，所有这些都导致食品价格上涨 [35][36] - 能源转型需要大量的铜、锂、钴和稀土，对这些材料的需求正在爆炸式增长，而供应仍然受限 [37] - 由于对石油和天然气的投资减少，传统能源供应变得更加紧张，任何地缘政治冲击都会导致价格飙升 [37] Crypto Market Implications - 持续的通货膨胀，但又不足以触发 20% 的利率，对加密货币来说是一个有利的环境 [45] - 中国经济面临通缩，促使富裕的中国人寻求在中国大陆以外的价值储存手段，加密货币提供了一个后门 [46] - 各国央行政策分化造成波动和不确定性，这正是加密货币作为一种非相关资产发光发热的时候 [46][47]

We think that investors should really be focused on where the cutting trough in this cycle is. That's still around 3%. The Fed thinks 3% is neutral.The market seems to believe that that's credible and that the Fed will head there. Increasingly, at least for our rate strategy team, we see 3% as almost a cutting ceiling. They're going to at least cut to there, we think.And we think that the market is not fully appreciating the potential range of outcomes below 3% that the Fed could take us to. And that range ...