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Affirm to Post Q4 Earnings: Buy, Hold or Sell the Stock Now?
ZACKS· 2025-08-25 15:11
Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. is expected to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on August 28, 2025, with an earnings estimate of 11 cents per share and revenues of $839.9 million [1][6] - The earnings estimate has improved by 2 cents over the past 60 days, indicating a year-over-year improvement of 178.6%, while quarterly revenues are projected to grow by 27.4% year-over-year [2] Financial Performance - For the current fiscal year, Affirm's revenue estimate stands at $3.19 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 37.2%, with EPS projected at 5 cents, indicating a 103% improvement [3] - Affirm has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 102.2% [3] Earnings Predictions - The company is predicted to beat earnings expectations this quarter, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +62.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4] - Key growth drivers for Q4 include expansion in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), an increase in active merchants and consumers, and higher virtual card usage [6] Growth Metrics - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GMV in Q4 suggests a growth of 32.3% year-over-year, with management anticipating GMV to be between $9.4 billion and $9.7 billion [8] - Active consumers are expected to grow by 20.9% year-over-year, with transactions per active consumer projected to rise by 18.4% [9] Revenue Breakdown - Merchant network revenues are estimated at $235 million, indicating a 29.8% increase from the prior year [7] - Card network revenues are expected to improve by 37.5% year-over-year, with interest income projected at $416.1 million, reflecting a 23.3% rise [10] Stock Performance - Affirm's stock has increased by 30.5% year-to-date, outperforming both its industry (19.3%) and the S&P 500 (9.8%) [12] - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/S ratio of 6.33, above its three-year median of 3.63 and the industry average of 5.72, indicating a stretched valuation [14] Strategic Positioning - Affirm is enhancing its BNPL market position by focusing on repeat usage and expanding its ecosystem, with partnerships with major retailers and a growing merchant network of nearly 360,000 [16] - The company is also expanding into essential spending categories and has collaborations that extend its reach into Europe and younger demographics [16] Competitive Landscape - The BNPL market remains competitive, with significant players like PayPal, Block, and Klarna increasing their offerings, posing risks to Affirm's market share [19] - Rising operating expenses and a premium valuation suggest that investors may consider waiting for a more favorable entry point [20]
The J.M. Smucker to Report Q1 Earnings: What Surprise Awaits Investors?
ZACKS· 2025-08-22 18:11
Core Insights - The J.M. Smucker Company is expected to experience a decline in both revenue and earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, with revenue estimated at $2.12 billion, reflecting a 0.2% decrease from the previous year [1] - The earnings consensus has increased by 4.3% over the past 30 days to $1.94 per share, indicating a 20.5% drop compared to the same quarter last year [2] Group 1: Factors Impacting Performance - The company's first-quarter results are anticipated to be negatively affected by a challenging consumer environment characterized by inflation and reduced discretionary spending, which are altering purchasing behaviors [3] - Categories such as sweet baked goods are facing slower recovery than expected, leading to anticipated softness in the sweet baked snacks segment due to category and channel challenges [4] - Concerns arise from potential increases in selling, distribution, and administrative (SD&A) costs, which may indicate higher marketing investments that could pose margin risks despite being essential for brand engagement [5] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Despite the challenges, the resilience of certain categories and effective execution of growth strategies are expected to provide some support to the company's performance in the upcoming quarter [6] - The company's strategic priorities include focusing on volume and net sales growth, operational excellence, and resource allocation to capitalize on the fastest growth opportunities [6] Group 3: Earnings Predictions - The current model suggests a likelihood of an earnings beat for The J.M. Smucker Company, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +1.77% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [7]
Will Dollar General (DG) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report?
ZACKS· 2025-08-22 17:11
Core Insights - Dollar General has consistently surpassed earnings estimates, averaging a 16.54% beat over the last two quarters [1][5] - The most recent earnings report showed Dollar General earning $1.78 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.47 per share by 21.09% [2] - The previous quarter also saw a positive surprise, with actual earnings of $1.68 per share against an estimate of $1.50, resulting in a 12.00% surprise [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Estimates for Dollar General have been trending higher due to its history of earnings surprises, indicating bullish sentiment among analysts [5] - The stock currently has a positive Earnings ESP of +0.06%, suggesting potential for another earnings beat in the upcoming report [8] - The next earnings report is anticipated to be released on August 28, 2025 [8] Zacks Rank and Earnings ESP - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggests a high likelihood of a positive surprise, with historical data indicating that nearly 70% of stocks with this combination beat consensus estimates [6][8] - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7]
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Should You Buy?
ZACKS· 2025-08-21 15:01
Core Viewpoint - Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ended July 2025, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Financial Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $4.97 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 6.2%, while revenues are projected to reach $2.64 billion, representing a 3.5% increase from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.34% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a slight positive adjustment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that Ulta has a positive Earnings ESP of +1.39%, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which, when combined with the positive Earnings ESP, indicates a strong potential for an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Ulta exceeded the expected earnings of $5.77 per share by delivering $6.70, resulting in a surprise of +16.12% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Ulta has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Industry Context - Another player in the retail sector, Five Below (FIVE), is expected to report earnings of $0.61 per share for the same quarter, indicating a year-over-year increase of 13%, with revenues projected at $997.33 million, up 20.2% from the previous year [18]. - Despite a significant downward revision of 130.8% in the consensus EPS estimate for Five Below over the last 30 days, a higher Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +13.35%, suggesting a likely earnings beat [19].
Canadian Imperial Bank (CM) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release
ZACKS· 2025-08-21 15:01
Core Viewpoint - Canadian Imperial Bank (CM) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended July 2025, with a consensus outlook indicating potential stock price movements based on actual results compared to estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus EPS estimate for Canadian Imperial Bank is $1.43 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +1.4% [3]. - Expected revenues for the quarter are $5.12 billion, which represents a 6.2% increase from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.71% higher, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Canadian Imperial Bank is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -0.87%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict deviations from consensus estimates, with a positive ESP being a strong predictor of an earnings beat [9][10]. - Canadian Imperial Bank's current Zacks Rank is 3 (Hold), which complicates predictions of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Canadian Imperial Bank exceeded the expected EPS of $1.34 by delivering $1.44, resulting in a surprise of +7.46% [13]. - The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters [14]. Industry Comparison - Royal Bank (RY), a peer in the banking industry, is expected to report an EPS of $2.36 for the same quarter, indicating a year-over-year change of -0.8% [18]. - Royal Bank's revenues are projected to be $11.59 billion, up 8.5% from the previous year, with a positive Earnings ESP of +1.06% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [19].
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth
ZACKS· 2025-08-21 15:01
Company Overview - Affirm Holdings (AFRM) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings due to higher revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with a consensus outlook indicating a positive earnings picture [1][2] - The earnings report is anticipated to be released on August 28, and the stock may rise if the reported numbers exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts quarterly earnings of $0.11 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +178.6% [3] - Revenues are projected to reach $839.88 million, which is a 27.4% increase from the same quarter last year [3] Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 22.64% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive reassessment by analysts [4] - The Most Accurate Estimate for Affirm Holdings is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +44.00% [12] Earnings Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, Affirm Holdings was expected to post a loss of $0.09 per share but instead reported earnings of $0.01, achieving a surprise of +111.11% [13] - Over the past four quarters, the company has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [14] Industry Context - In the Zacks Internet - Software industry, nCino (NCNO) is expected to report earnings of $0.14 per share for the same quarter, with revenues projected at $143 million, an 8% increase year-over-year [18] - nCino's consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged, but a higher Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +3.7%, indicating a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [19]
Kohl's to Report Q2 Earnings: Essential Insights Ahead of the Report
ZACKS· 2025-08-20 18:01
Core Viewpoint - Kohl's Corporation is expected to report declines in both revenue and earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2025, with sales estimated at $3.48 billion, reflecting a 6.9% decrease year-over-year, and earnings per share projected at 33 cents, down 44.1% from the previous year [1]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kohl's quarterly sales is currently pegged at $3.48 billion, indicating a 6.9% decrease from the year-ago quarter [1]. - The consensus mark for earnings for the fiscal second quarter has remained stable at 33 cents a share, reflecting a year-over-year plunge of 44.1% [1]. - Kohl's has delivered an average earnings surprise of 18.8% over the trailing four quarters, with a notable earnings surprise of 40.9% in the last reported fiscal quarter [2]. Group 2: Factors Impacting Performance - Ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and a cautious consumer environment are significant challenges for Kohl's, particularly affecting its digital business and home category sales [3]. - The company is facing external headwinds such as shifting consumer behavior and unpredictable tariff developments, leading to a projected comparable sales decline of 5.6% in the upcoming quarter [4]. - Despite these challenges, Kohl's has made progress in underpenetrated categories like home decor, gifting, and baby products, which may provide some cushion in the fiscal second quarter [5]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Kohl's is focusing on strategic growth initiatives, including enhancing customer experience, optimizing inventory, and effective cost management, which is expected to result in a 6.1% reduction in SG&A costs for the second quarter [6]. - The strategic partnership with Sephora is anticipated to have a positive impact on performance in the upcoming quarter [5]. Group 4: Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Kohl's, as it has an Earnings ESP of -20.17% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a neutral outlook [7].
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Can the Stock Move Higher?
ZACKS· 2025-08-20 15:00
Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Abercrombie & Fitch, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Abercrombie & Fitch is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.27 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 9.2% [3][19]. - Revenue is projected to be $1.19 billion, which is an increase of 4.8% compared to the same quarter last year [3][19]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.28% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4][19]. - Despite the downward revision, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +2.62% [12][19]. Earnings Surprise Potential - A positive Earnings ESP suggests a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate, especially given the company's Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [12][20]. - Historically, Abercrombie has beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, with a notable surprise of +17.78% in the last reported quarter [13][14]. Industry Context - Abercrombie & Fitch operates within the Zacks Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, where it is positioned as a compelling earnings-beat candidate [18][20].
Royal Bank (RY) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Can the Stock Move Higher?
ZACKS· 2025-08-20 15:00
Wall Street expects a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when Royal Bank (RY) reports results for the quarter ended July 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates. The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on August 27. On the ...
The Cooper Companies (COO) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release
ZACKS· 2025-08-20 15:00
Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for The Cooper Companies, driven by higher revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The Cooper Companies is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.06 per share, reflecting a +10.4% year-over-year change, with revenues projected at $1.07 billion, up 6.2% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating stability in analyst expectations [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model shows a positive Earnings ESP of +0.58% for The Cooper Companies, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - The Cooper Companies has beaten consensus EPS estimates in three out of the last four quarters, with a recent surprise of +3.23% [13][14]. Additional Considerations - While an earnings beat may influence stock movement, other factors can also play a significant role in stock performance post-earnings release [15][17].