Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1021.45 tons of gold as of October 14, 2025, reflecting an increase of 2.57 tons from the previous trading day, amidst significant fluctuations in gold prices [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of October 14, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings reached 1021.45 tons, up by 2.57 tons from the prior day [5]. - The increase in gold ETF holdings over the past two trading days totals more than 4 tons [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On October 14, gold prices experienced volatility, dropping to a low of $4090.49 per ounce and peaking at $4179.47 per ounce, closing at $4142.01 per ounce, a rise of $31.56 or 0.77% [5]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged by 57%, surpassing the $4100 per ounce mark for the first time, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, economic unpredictability, expectations of interest rate cuts, strong central bank purchases, and inflows into ETFs [5]. Group 3: Market Analysis - The sharp fluctuations in gold prices on October 14 were attributed to sudden market sentiment changes, with analysts predicting increased volatility due to profit-taking and bottom-fishing activities [6]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing trade tensions are providing strong support for gold as a safe-haven asset [6]. - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on October 29 remain high at 96%, indicating sustained investor anticipation for accommodative monetary policy [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold maintains an upward trend, with the relative strength index indicating accumulating buying momentum, and prices above all moving averages suggesting bullish sentiment [7]. - A breakthrough above $4155 could open further upside potential, targeting historical highs near $4180, with subsequent resistance levels at $4200, $4250, and $4300 [7]. - Conversely, failure to break the upper boundary of the month-long upward channel (currently at $4162 per ounce) may lead to a corrective pullback, potentially testing the lower boundary at $4015 [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. small-business sentiment has declined slightly due to ongoing inflationary pressures and labor shortages, contributing to economic uncertainty [1][2] - The National Federation of Independent Business reported a 2.0-point drop in its optimism index for September, bringing it to 98.8, which is close to the long-term average of 98 points [2]

Core Insights - Economic uncertainty and tariffs are leading retailers to reduce or delay hiring seasonal workers for the crucial holiday selling season [1] Group 1: Hiring Trends - American Christmas LLC plans to hire 220 temporary workers, which is a decrease from 300 last year, and is starting recruitment nearly two months later than usual [2] - Job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas forecasts that holiday hiring could fall below 500,000 positions, marking the smallest seasonal gain since 2009 [3] - Radial plans to hire 6,500 workers, down from 7,000 last year, while Bath & Body Works intends to hire 32,000 workers, slightly lower than 32,700 a year ago [4] Group 2: Economic Factors - American Christmas LLC's CEO expects a tariff bill of $1.5 million this year, more than double last year's $600,000, influencing hiring decisions [3] - Challenger's senior vice president noted a cooling labor market and an increase in companies using AI to replace some workers, particularly in call centers [6] Group 3: Notable Exceptions - Amazon Inc. plans to hire 250,000 full-time, part-time, and seasonal workers, maintaining the same hiring level as the previous year [5]

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached a record high, with predictions suggesting it could rise to $5,000 an ounce within a year and potentially $10,000 by the end of the decade [1][4][6] Group 1: Price Predictions - Randy Smallwood, CEO of Wheaton Precious Metals, is confident that gold will exceed $5,000 within the next year and could reach $10,000 before the decade ends [2][6] - Spot gold surpassed $4,000 an ounce for the first time, marking a significant increase in value [4][10] Group 2: Market Drivers - The surge in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical uncertainty, limited physical supply, and a weaker US dollar, which has pushed investors towards gold as a safe haven [5][9] - Gold has increased approximately 50% in value so far in 2025, marking its best performance since 1979 [5][10] Group 3: Investor Behavior - Investors typically buy gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty due to its ability to retain value [8][12] - Central banks are expected to increase their gold reserves, with a survey indicating that 95% of central bankers anticipate a rise in global gold reserves this year [13] Group 4: Economic Context - Concerns over tariffs, high interest rates, and a slow labor market have contributed to the rising gold prices [9] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank predict that gold prices could exceed $4,000 by the end of the year, indicating a strong performance for the asset [14]

Core Viewpoint - Gold has surpassed $4,000 per ounce as of October 6, marking a significant increase from below $2,000 two years ago, which is unexpected given its historical underperformance compared to the S&P 500 during bull markets [1][3] Group 1: Gold's Performance - Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 year to date and over the last three years, despite the S&P 500's strong returns over the past 15 years [3][4] - Year-to-date returns for gold are 48.1%, while the S&P 500 has returned 15.3% [5] Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Currency risk is a major factor driving gold prices higher, with central banks in countries like China and India increasing gold's share in their reserves [5][6] - Countries are diversifying their reserve portfolios to hedge against economic instability and geopolitical tensions, reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar [6][8] - The U.S. dollar's value fell by 11% relative to a basket of currencies in the first half of 2025, prompting allies like Japan to increase gold reserves [8] Group 3: Central Bank Activity - Central banks are significantly increasing their gold reserves, with notable increases from China, India, Japan, Turkey, and Poland over the last five years [9] - The U.S. holds the largest gold reserves, but these have remained unchanged for years, contrasting with the increasing reserves in other countries [9]

The CNBC NRF retail report is out right now. Steve Leeman joins us with the numbers. And Steve, what's the news.Good morning, Becky. Consumers hit the pause button in September after two months of uh good gains. According to the CNBC NRF Retail Monitor, hopes are that it's a pause that refreshes ahead of this approaching holiday season.Never too early to start thinking about that. The monitor, which is powered by real credit card spending data from Affinity Solutions, dropping 0.7% for total retail sales XO ...

Core Insights - Alcohol sales in the U.S. are declining, with a Gallup survey indicating that only 54% of adults consume alcohol, the lowest in nearly 90 years [2] - The decline is attributed to health concerns, economic factors, and the rise of alternative beverages [3] Industry Overview - Economic factors such as inflation and rising living costs are making consumers more selective in discretionary spending [3] - The availability of alternatives like cannabis and nonalcoholic beverages is providing consumers with more choices [3] Company Performance - Constellation Brands reported better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter results but lowered its full-year guidance due to macroeconomic challenges [4] - The company noted significant volatility in sales, particularly in high Hispanic Zip Code areas, which are crucial for its Modelo brand [5] - 80% of surveyed consumers expressed concern about the socioeconomic environment, with 70% specifically worried about personal finances [6] Consumer Behavior - There is a noted increase in brand loyalty for Constellation's products, particularly for Corona and Modelo among Hispanic consumers [7] - The company has a higher share of Gen Z consumers compared to the industry average [8] Financial Outlook - Despite current headwinds, the company remains confident in its long-term growth trajectory [9] - The expected tariff impact on Constellation's beer business is about $70 million, with an additional $20 million on the wine business [9] - Constellation's stock has decreased by 35% this year and nearly 41% from the previous year [10] Competitor Insights - Boston Beer has also faced challenges, with its stock down nearly 27% this year [11] - The company sees long-term growth opportunities in nonbeer alcoholic beverages, which represent over 85% of its volume [12] - Anheuser-Busch InBev reported a decline in volumes, particularly in China, despite revenue and profit increases [13]

Gold hit $4,000 an ounce for the first time on Tuesday, extending its record run amid heightened economic uncertainty and surging interest from everyday investors. https://t.co/qhlxFZL0Rc ...

Core Insights - The Zacks Leisure and Recreation Products industry is experiencing growth due to increased health and fitness awareness, leading to solid demand for fitness products and outdoor recreation items [1][4]. Industry Overview - The industry includes companies that provide a range of recreational products and services, such as amusement products, swimming pools, marine products, and outdoor equipment [2]. - Economic growth is a key driver for the industry, with consumer demand influenced by a healthy labor market, rising wages, and increasing disposable income [2]. Trends Impacting the Industry - The golf sector is thriving, with rising demand for golf equipment driven by technological advancements and increased participation among younger demographics [3]. - There is robust demand for fitness-related products, particularly home workout equipment and digital fitness platforms, as consumers prioritize health and convenience [4]. Economic Context - The U.S. economy is facing mixed conditions in 2025, with resilient consumer spending but challenges from inflation and higher interest rates [5]. - Despite a strong labor market, there are signs of cooling in certain sectors, contributing to a cautious economic outlook [5]. Industry Performance - The Zacks Leisure and Recreation Products industry ranks 56, placing it in the top 23% of over 243 Zacks industries, indicating positive near-term prospects [6][7]. - The industry has underperformed the S&P 500, with a growth of 16% compared to the S&P 500's 19.5% increase over the past year [10]. Valuation Metrics - The industry trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 25.65X, higher than the S&P 500's 23.55X and the sector's 18.45X [13]. Notable Companies - **Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON)**: The company reported 552,000 paid app subscriptions and $607 million in total revenues, exceeding guidance. Fiscal 2026 earnings are expected to rise by 123.3% [16][17]. - **Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG)**: The company is benefiting from strong consumer demand in golf equipment and effective cost-saving initiatives, with a positive outlook for ongoing operations [22]. - **Acushnet Holdings Corp. (GOLF)**: The company continues to see steady demand for its Titleist golf equipment, with a projected 2% increase in earnings for 2025 [23][24].

Core Insights - Retirement is increasingly viewed as a time requiring financial prudence due to high inflation and economic uncertainty, prompting older adults to consider more frugal lifestyles and additional income sources [2] Cost-Cutting Strategies - Downsizing housing can lead to significant savings on property taxes, utilities, and maintenance costs, especially for empty nesters or singles [4] - Cooking at home instead of dining out can substantially reduce food expenses [6] - Meal planning helps minimize food waste, which the USDA estimates costs households around $1,500 annually [8] - Buying food in bulk from wholesalers can provide significant discounts and savings [9] - Growing personal vegetables can lower grocery bills while promoting healthier eating habits [10] Income Generation Strategies - Older adults are encouraged to explore side hustles or selling unused items to create additional income streams [2]