It would have taken a surprising surge of inflation in September to deter the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in October—and that didn't happen. https://t.co/tZZXTh4b8h ...

Core Insights - The recent inflation reading stands at 3%, indicating moderate price growth, which is above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% but significantly lower than the elevated rates observed in 2022 and early 2023 [1] Inflation Analysis - Current inflation rate of 3% reflects a shift from the higher rates experienced previously, suggesting a potential stabilization in the economy [1] - The inflation rate is still above the Federal Reserve's target, indicating ongoing monitoring and potential policy implications [1]

So for more, let's bring in Barry Napp. He's director of research at Iron Science Macroeconomics. Uh Barry, love to get your read on the CPI number.Of course, one of the few data prints that we've been able to get, albeit, you know, delayed and guess sounds like the government had to pull some extra strings to get it to us, but uh 3% initially earlier on the show, we had Krishna Guha saying that's pretty benign, at least from a market perspective. the two um issues that I haven't heard discussed um over all ...

So for more, let's bring in Barry Napp. He's director of research at Iron Science Macroeconomics. Uh Barry, love to get your read on the CPI number.Of course, one of the few data prints that we've been able to get, albeit, you know, delayed and guess sounds like the government had to pull some extra strings to get it to us, but uh 3% initially earlier on the show, we had Krishna Guha saying that's pretty benign, at least from a market perspective. the two um issues that I haven't heard discussed um over all ...

Inflation Analysis - Inflation is described as benign for markets, with the latest print coming in cooler than expected at 3%, although it remains above the Fed's target rate [1][2] - There is no indication of a surge in goods prices due to tariffs, with goods price inflation lower than the previous month [2] - Housing services inflation is reported to be soft, while other services show slightly elevated inflation, but overall, there are no significant concerns [3] Labor Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring labor softness and risks, with recent layoffs, such as Target's 8% corporate staff reduction, being the first in a decade [4][5] - The Fed is cautious about interpreting single company layoffs, focusing instead on aggregate data, particularly initial unemployment claims, which have remained stable [6] - The ongoing government shutdown is affecting federal employment, with potential furloughs and paychecks being delayed, which could impact the labor market and demand side [7][9] Government Employment Impact - The labor market is influenced by federal and state employment dynamics, with anticipated effects from previous layoffs and furloughs expected to create noise in unemployment data [8][10] - The Fed and economists are prioritizing the analysis of private sector payrolls to understand the underlying labor market trends amidst government employment issues [10][11]

Inflation Analysis - Evercore ISI认为，对于市场而言，通货膨胀是良性的，因为CPI数据低于预期，且未观察到关税转嫁到商品价格上的迹象[2] - 商品价格通胀低于8月份，住房服务通胀疲软，其他服务通胀略有上升，但总体而言无需担忧[2][3] Federal Reserve Policy - 由于通胀方面没有坏消息，美联储可以自由地通过降息来应对劳动力市场的疲软和风险[4] - 美联储将密切关注总体裁员情况，因为如果裁员人数增加且招聘仍然非常低迷，可能会导致失业率迅速恶化[6] Labor Market Dynamics - 初请失业金人数保持平稳，未发出失业方面的红色警报，但裁员公告仍需跟踪，以判断初请失业金人数是否会增加[6] - 需要密切关注联邦、州和地方政府的就业情况，包括Doge裁员的滞后效应和政府停摆的影响[8][9] - 政府停摆可能对需求侧产生宏观经济影响，经济学界将关注潜在的私营部门工资单和劳动力市场动态[9][10] Government Shutdown Impact - 政府雇员可能会因为停摆而错过工资，这可能会对需求产生轻微的宏观经济影响[7][9] - 除了潜在的私营部门劳动力市场动态外，政府部门的就业情况也需要密切关注[8]

The segment of the US Treasury market that offers investors protection against rising consumer prices is headed for uncharted waters as the government said Friday it probably won’t release inflation data for October. https://t.co/EkoPQN1es3 ...

>> FROM NEW YORK CITY FOR OUR VIEWERS WORLDWIDE, BLOOMBERG REAL YIELD STARTS RIGHT NOW. SCARLET: COMING UP, THE LONG-AWAITED AND LONG DELAYED TO SEPTEMBER CPI REPORT WAS BENIGN, SHOWING INFLATION AT THE SLOWEST PACE IN THREE MONTHS. OFFERING A PATH FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE TO CUT INTEREST RATES BEYOND NEXT WEEK'S MEETINGS.SOME OF THE BIGGEST VOICES ON THE STREET WEIGHING IN ON POSSIBLE CRACKS IN THE CREDIT MARKET. WE BEGIN WITH A BIG ISSUE, A SOFTER THAN EXPECTED CPI PRINT. >> IT IS GENERALLY A BETTER-THAN-E ...

Group 1 - The recent CPI report indicates inflation is at its slowest pace in three months, which may lead the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts beyond the upcoming meetings [1][4][7] - Traders are now expecting nearly four quarter-point cuts by June 2026, reflecting a shift in market sentiment following the CPI data [4][5] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, showed a gain of 0.20%, which is better than expected, reinforcing the case for potential rate cuts [4][10] Group 2 - Concerns are raised about the credit market, with some analysts noting potential cracks due to recent economic data and consumer sentiment [2][31] - The bond market is facing a dilemma as inflation remains elevated above the Fed's 2% target, complicating the rationale for rate cuts [8][10] - The sovereign debt market is expected to crowd out corporate debt due to increased global spending, particularly in developed markets [21][22] Group 3 - The high-yield credit spread is starting to widen, which some view as an opportunity to add selective exposure in certain sectors [31][36] - There is a notable divide in the economic landscape, with larger companies managing better through economic changes compared to small and medium-sized businesses [18][19] - The current economic environment is characterized by a K-shaped recovery, where certain sectors are thriving while others, particularly lower-income segments, are struggling [15][20]

Very big week looming. Let's show you what's going on. Uh we have the busiest week of earning season coming up.You know about the mega caps. Five of the seven are reporting. Jensen Wong gives a keynote on Tuesday.The Fed decision is on Wednesday. The meeting between the presidents, she and uh President Trump, of course, on Thursday. So, we got a lot to look forward to.Weiss. I think it's interesting that this market looks at CPI cooler. It's convinced the Fed's going to be engaged and highly so.Uh it has a ...