Core Insights - Lennar Corporation reported a significant decline in net earnings for Q3 2025, with net earnings of $591 million or $2.29 per diluted share, down from $1.2 billion or $4.26 per diluted share in Q3 2024 [2][4]. - The company delivered 21,584 homes and recorded 23,004 new orders, reflecting a 12% increase in new orders compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The average sales price of homes decreased to $383,000 in Q3 2025 from $422,000 in Q3 2024, primarily due to market weakness [6][7]. Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q3 2025 were $8.8 billion, down 9% from $9.4 billion in Q3 2024, mainly due to a decrease in home sales revenue [4][6]. - Homebuilding operating earnings were $760 million, with a gross margin of 17.5%, down from 22.5% in the prior year [4][7]. - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses increased to $676 million, representing 8.2% of revenues, up from 6.7% in Q3 2024 [8]. Operational Highlights - The company ended the quarter with a backlog of 16,953 homes valued at $6.6 billion [4][31]. - Inventory turns improved to 1.9 times, and cycle time decreased to 126 days, the shortest cycle time recorded [3]. - The company repurchased 4.1 million shares for $507 million at an average price of $122.97 [12]. Segment Performance - Financial Services segment operating earnings increased to $178 million, up from $144 million in Q3 2024, driven by higher profit per locked loan [9]. - The Multifamily segment reported an operating loss of $16 million, compared to operating earnings of $79 million in the prior year, impacted by a one-time gain in 2024 [10]. - Lennar Other segment operating earnings were $62 million, up from $20 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to mark-to-market gains on technology investments [10][22]. Guidance - For Q4 2025, the company expects new orders between 20,000 and 21,000 homes, deliveries of 22,000 to 23,000 homes, and a gross margin of approximately 17.5% [5][13]. - The average sales price for Q4 is projected to be between $380,000 and $390,000, with SG&A as a percentage of home sales expected to be between 7.8% and 8.0% [13]. Market Conditions - The company noted that elevated interest rates persisted throughout Q3 but showed signs of decline towards the end of the quarter, providing optimism for future performance [3]. - The long-term need for housing remains, and the company is focused on meeting affordability and sustaining production through efficiency and scale [5].

RT Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien)Wanted to share a few thoughts tonight...This is from the September 11th MIT publication that dropped on @RealVision:For starters, unemployment keeps grinding higher, exactly as our lead indicators and GMI/MIT work flagged back in Q1.That keeps the Fed engaged and is why, as I noted in last week’s video update, the market has started pricing in a higher probability of cuts at the September, October, and December meetings...US unemployment is now at 4.3%, right on the Fed ...

From the Desk of Anthony Pompliano0:00 The FED Can’t Make Up Its Mind On Interest Rates5:21 Trump Takes Victory Lap Over Inflation8:26 Eric Jackson Interview From The Independent Investor SummitEnjoy! https://t.co/HCjJLvIcBT ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions - Monetary accommodation is still influencing the euro area economy following rate cuts between June 2024 and June 2025 [1] - The recent US-EU trading agreement has alleviated pressure to lower rates, while the redirection of cheap goods due to higher US tariffs is expected to reduce prices in the short term [1] - The euro's appreciation against the dollar and other currencies is contributing to disinflation [1] Group 2: Inflation Dynamics - Inflationary pressures may increase in the medium term, with core and services-sector inflation and wage growth remaining above target despite being off their highs [2] - Tight labor markets and increased public spending in Germany and Europe are exerting inflationary pressure, alongside the new EU energy trading regime expected to raise prices [2] - Scope Ratings estimates inflation at 2.1% for this year and 1.9% in 2026, down from 2.4% last year and 5.4% in 2023 [2] Group 3: ECB Rate Outlook - The rating agency does not anticipate further ECB rate cuts this year, with a bias towards easing rather than tightening in the future [3] - The next change in the deposit rate, currently at 2%, will depend on inflation dynamics, US-EU trade relations, economic growth, and exchange rates [3] - The euro has strengthened by 13% against the dollar this year [3] Group 4: Currency and Competitiveness Concerns - A euro exchange rate significantly above 1.20 against the dollar could raise concerns about deflation risks and competitiveness [4] - The euro has gained from uncertainties surrounding US trade and fiscal policy, as well as a US strategy to devalue the dollar for trade rebalancing [4] Group 5: US Policy Impact - US rate cuts and market pressure for more Fed easing may increase pressure on the ECB if diverging rates sustain euro appreciation [5] - A stronger euro, if unchecked, could undermine inflation, potentially pushing it below target and prompting a response from the ECB [5] Group 6: Long-term Yields and Rate Expectations - Scope's baseline indicates higher rates for a longer duration, highlighted by the recent rise in long-term euro area yields, which is a concern for the central bank [7] - Further US rate reductions could de-anchor long-run inflation expectations, leading to increased long-term yields globally and steeper yield curves [7]

The Fed cut interest rates yesterday but there is pure chaos going on internally.Some people wanted to hike rates, while others wanted to cut rates 5 times this year.Insane! https://t.co/0PzYtIXbjU ...

The latest dot plot highlighting the growing division among FOMC members with one member seeing the Fed hiking rates this year. Another who we can probably guess seeing cuts of one and a quarter% over the next two meetings. Joining me now, Muhammad Alerian, Queens College Cambridge president. It's so good to have you here with us in the studio. Muhammad and so I noticed you retweet a comment from Jim Biano, another longtime Fed watcher and investor. and he basically said this meeting was a mess of this late ...

Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - 美联储主席承认面临稳定物价（2%的通胀目标）和充分就业的双重困境，通胀高于目标，就业市场疲软 [1] - 美联储降息 25 个基点，被视为风险管理措施，旨在刺激就业增长，但可能加剧通胀 [2][3] - 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）对未来利率走向存在分歧，部分委员预计年内不再降息，部分预计需要两次降息，年底利率预期约为 36% [4][5] - 就业市场在过去几个月明显疲软，核心通胀率仍接近 3%，高于美联储 2% 的目标 [7] - 经济存在衰退的可能性，可能由无法预见的“黑天鹅”事件引发 [9][10] Chip Manufacturing & AI - 美国必须成为芯片制造商，不能依赖其他国家，新冠疫情暴露了供应链的脆弱性 [14] - 美国政府鼓励国内芯片制造是件好事，芯片对于国家安全至关重要，例如导弹需要 300 多个芯片 [16][17] - 人工智能资本支出巨大，大量资金投入到数据中心建设中，预计未来 3-5 年内数据中心将陆续投入使用 [19] - 人工智能将走向企业级解决方案，各种人工智能程序将协同工作，需要更连贯的数据和数据库支持，这将引领量子革命，预计到本十年末，量子技术将成为重要组成部分 [20][21]

RT BSCN (@BSCNews)FED’S 0.25 RATE CUT AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR CRYPTO- The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on Sept. 17, its first cut since December, but crypto barely moved, as markets had already priced it in.- $BTC traded between $115K and $116K before the announcement. Hours later, it dipped under $115K, then bounced near $117K.- $ETH slipped from $4,600 to $4,430 before reclaiming $4,620. A quick swing, but nothing sustained. Analysts say the cut was “baked in” well before Powell ...

The confrontation comes as Trump seeks to reshape the Fed to be more amenable to his demands to lower interest rates. Here's what to know https://t.co/oDO9o8adzW ...

Hassett offers an endorsement of the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, even after Trump and his allies had pressed for a bigger reduction https://t.co/8Xs9silHQJ ...