Turkey’s central bank said its monetary policy isn’t on a preset path, providing little indication on the size of future interest-rate cuts after it began lowering borrowing costs last month https://t.co/DT62Q7zr5G ...

I want to talk about these and comments in particular, Mark, to try to get a comment on on that person's not only commenting on how many rate cuts we should see in the United States. He's also talking about the yen as well. He's talking about the DOJ.How big a departure is this and how significant should this be. I think given the precedent set by this administration in other fields, we're probably much less shocked than if this had come in any prior year. Obviously, Bessant himself has not normally comment ...

Chile Policymakers Say Quarter-Point Cut Was Only Option in July https://t.co/1dpWCTgMCp ...

Fiscal & Monetary Policy - China's Ministry of Finance is implementing measures, including interest subsidies for personal consumer loans and loans to service sector businesses, to lower borrowing costs for residents and businesses [1] - The goal is to stimulate consumption and facilitate economic circulation while safeguarding and improving people's livelihoods [1]

Inflation & Monetary Policy - The industry views it as difficult to argue for lower rates currently due to uncertainty about future inflation [1] - The industry notes that the pass-through of tariffs into higher prices has been modest so far, but it is still in the early stages [1] - Inflation is a key concern [2] - The industry believes there are no overwhelming signs of weakening economic activity that would necessitate monetary policy stimulus [2] - Current monetary policy stance is not considered tight [2] - There is no obvious reason for lower rates [2]

And we've got actually more Fed headlines related to all of this just hitting. Steve Leeman here with that. Steve.>> Yeah. Another wrinkle in the conversation. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmidt kind of hawkish here says retaining a modestly restrictive policy stance remains appropriate for the time being.He supports a patient approach to changing policy. Schmidt is a voter this year from Kansas City. He says growth remains solid, inflation remains too high, and policy should remain modestly restricted. ...

Well, you heard us talk about it. Our next guest has reportedly uh been added to the short list, President Trump's short list on Fed Chair Pics, former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. He's now the dean of Purdue University Business School, longtime friend of the show, and I I when I heard the news, Jim, I said, "Well, I don't know if he's a hawk or dove. I just know he's really smart, and I've known you a long time, and I've been out to the St. was fed with you and everything else and I think you'd b ...

Norway’s housing starts reversed some of their recent gains in the second quarter ahead of the central bank’s pivot to easing, strengthening the case for more reductions in borrowing costs https://t.co/Y2bu2LQ4up ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Economy**: The conference focused on the global economic outlook, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic indicators in understanding economic trends [1][4]. Core Economic Insights - **GDP Growth Projections**: - The US and China are experiencing the sharpest growth slowdowns among the regions covered, with the US projected to grow at 1.0% in 2025 and China at 4.2% [5][8]. - Euro Area growth is expected to be 0.9% in 2025, while Japan is forecasted at 0.5% [8]. - Selected emerging markets like India are projected to grow at 6.5% [8]. - **Inflation Trends**: - A divergence in global disinflation is noted, with the US experiencing a short-term tariff boost to inflation, but a downward trend is expected to continue thereafter [9][11]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain a pause in interest rate changes through 2025, while other developed market central banks are expected to ease [11][14]. - **Tariff Impacts**: - A 30% tariff rate on imports from China is currently in effect, which is expected to boost inflation over the summer [20][25]. - The effective tax rate has decreased to 13% since "Liberation Day" [22]. Employment and Labor Market - **Job Market Pressures**: - The job market remains under pressure, with payroll breakevens expected to drop to 70,000 per month in 2025 and 2026 due to rising deportations [29][66]. - Manufacturing production declines have been accompanied by falling payrolls [50]. Regional Economic Insights - **China's Economic Conditions**: - Persistent deflation is expected, with entrenched PPI deflation and low CPI inflation continuing [60][64]. - Consumption improvements are likely to be driven by policy measures, and the housing supply-demand balance has improved significantly in tier-1 cities [69][64]. - **Japan's Economic Outlook**: - Japan's nominal GDP is on a gradual growth trajectory, with base wage payments trending around 3% [85][87]. - The economy is not expected to experience runaway inflation or a return to deflation [88]. - **Euro Area Challenges**: - The Euro Area is projected to see GDP slowing year-on-year until Q1 2026, influenced by various shocks [52]. - The ECB is expected to cut rates to 1.5% by the end of the year [44]. Additional Insights - **Global Supply Chain Dynamics**: - China remains central in the global supply chain, with a stable global export share despite a declining share in the US market [72][74]. - The diversification of China's supply chain with new export destinations is noted, particularly in green products [77]. - **Political Uncertainty**: - Political uncertainty in Japan is highlighted, particularly regarding the outcomes of the 2024 Lower House elections [88]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the global economic outlook, regional economic conditions, and the implications of tariffs and inflation on various markets.

The road to lower interest rates in the US is turning smoother, but some sizeable bumps remain https://t.co/8BMkoCFPj2 ...