Core Insights - The BDO industry in China is facing challenges such as market supply-demand imbalance, intensified competition, and continuous emergence of new production capacities, necessitating innovation, application expansion, and industry self-discipline to overcome these issues [2][3] Industry Overview - As of September 2025, there are 34 BDO enterprises in China with a total production capacity of 5.797 million tons, representing a 167% increase since 2020 [2] - The expected BDO production volume for 2025 is projected to reach 3 million tons, a 150% increase from 2020 [2] - BDO consumption is on a gradual rise, with a forecasted consumption of 2.62 million tons in 2024, marking a 16.4% year-on-year growth, but still lagging behind production capacity growth [2] Market Dynamics - The continuous increase in BDO production capacity is leading to market supply-demand imbalance and "involution" competition, resulting in declining BDO prices and reduced corporate profitability [3] - By 2025, the number of companies with idle assets and long-term shutdowns in the BDO industry is expected to rise significantly, with idle capacity exceeding 1 million tons and tied-up funds surpassing 33.3 billion yuan [3] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The newly revised Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China includes provisions to address "involution" competition, which is seen as a positive policy development for the BDO industry that requires self-regulation [3] Strategic Recommendations - The BDO industry should focus on application innovation to boost consumer demand and explore high-end consumption areas in emerging industries [3] - Strengthening the supply chain by establishing cooperative mechanisms with upstream and downstream industries like calcium carbide and PBAT is essential for enhancing competitiveness [3] - Implementing capacity warning systems and improving industry self-discipline are crucial for managing production capacity and responding to market changes [3] Market Orientation - The BDO industry must establish a virtuous cycle from responding to demand to guiding and cultivating demand, while creating new application scenarios to stimulate consumption [4] - Transitioning from homogeneous competition to differentiated and high-end development is necessary for BDO enterprises, particularly in expanding into biodegradable plastics and other downstream products [4]