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Netflix Stock Took a Nosedive Last Week. A Buy on the Dip, or a Sign to Shut Off the Screen?
The Motley Fool· 2025-10-26 08:50
Core Viewpoint - Investors may be underestimating Netflix's strengths despite recent stock declines following Q3 2025 financial results, which showed a significant drop in operating margin and concerns over growth deceleration [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Netflix reported a Q3 operating margin of 28%, below the expected 31.5%, leading to a stock price drop of approximately 10% [2] - Revenue growth for Q3 was 17.2%, slightly exceeding expectations, but management forecasts a slowdown to 16.7% for Q4, raising concerns about potential peak growth [3] Growth Opportunities - Netflix's recent challenges are attributed to a one-time expense of over $600 million related to a tax dispute in Brazil, which is not expected to recur [6] - The company is exploring new revenue streams, including merchandise licensing for its animated film "KPop Demon Hunters" with companies like Mattel and Hasbro, similar to strategies employed by Disney [9] - The advertising segment is seen as a significant growth driver, with Netflix on track to double its advertising revenue in 2025 compared to 2024, currently in the "walk" phase of its rollout strategy [10][11] Valuation and Investment Considerations - Despite strong free cash flow generation, Netflix's stock trades at 57 times its free cash flow, indicating potential valuation risk [14] - There are execution risks associated with new growth areas like merchandise and advertising, which could impact future performance and exacerbate valuation concerns [16] - The overall outlook suggests that while Netflix may continue to find growth, its current valuation could align future stock performance more closely with market averages, making it less attractive as a buy at present [17][18]