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主题聚焦|外部扰动加大,聚焦三大主题
中信证券研究· 2025-03-31 00:06
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to focus on themes with high earnings certainty and low valuation levels amid increasing external disturbances and a cooling market environment [1][2]. Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a decline in theme performance, with previous popular themes retreating and dividend assets showing resilience [2]. - External factors such as the upcoming implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict are contributing to increased uncertainty [2][3]. - Internally, China's economy is characterized by fiscal stimulus and structural optimization pressures, with market liquidity and activity continuing to decline [2]. Catalytic Factors - The imminent implementation of U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2 is expected to heighten external uncertainties and impact global trade dynamics [3][7]. - The OFC 2025 conference will focus on three core areas: AI computing networks, 6G evolution, and quantum communication, which are anticipated to be significant for the integration of light communication and AI technologies [6]. - A technology salon hosted by Volcano Engine and Intel will explore various AI applications and solutions, highlighting trends in multi-modal AI and its market potential [6]. Recommended Themes - The article suggests focusing on three main themes: earnings surprises, rising chemical raw material prices, and U.S.-China geopolitical tensions [1][2][7]. - The chemical raw material price increase is expected to benefit from price hikes by international chemical giants and supply disruptions in specific sectors [7].