Export Performance Overview - In September 2025, China's export growth rate was 8.3%, up from 4.4% in the previous month, while import growth rose to 7.4% from 1.3%[5][8]. - The trade surplus has slightly decreased, indicating a shift in focus towards domestic demand[5][8]. Structural Changes in Exports - The export structure shows a continued strength in machinery and electrical equipment, while labor-intensive products remain weak[18][25]. - Exports to the US have improved to -27.0% from -33.1%, while exports to ASEAN have cooled to +15.6% from +22.5%[13][25]. Impact of Trade Barriers - The impact of traditional US trade barriers on Chinese exports is diminishing, suggesting a potential stabilization in US-China trade relations[4][25]. - China's proactive tightening of export controls has a minimal direct impact on its exports but significantly affects other countries' industries[26][25]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term forecasts indicate a potential decline in export growth in October, with Q4 expected to see a slight decrease in momentum and a lower growth baseline[26][25]. - Long-term trends show a continued "de-Americanization" of exports, with growth rates to the US and transshipment areas declining, while exports to other regions remain robust[28][25]. Risks and Considerations - Economic fluctuations in non-US and non-transshipment regions may have an unexpectedly large impact on exports[32][25].