Group 1 - The core point of the article is the simultaneous executive changes at two major brokerages, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) and China Galaxy Securities, both part of the "Hui Jin" system, indicating a trend of talent exchange between the two firms [2][3] - CICC appointed Liang Shipeng and Guo Jimin, both from China Galaxy, to its management committee, with Liang taking over as compliance director [3][5] - China Galaxy filled the vacancies left by Liang's departure by appointing two female executives, Guo Chen and Sun Jing, as vice presidents, with Guo also taking on the role of chief risk officer [3][8] Group 2 - Both brokerages reported strong financial performance for the year 2025, with CICC achieving revenue of 28.481 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.50%, and a net profit of 9.791 billion yuan, up 71.93% [5] - China Galaxy reported revenue of 28.302 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.34%, and a net profit of 12.52 billion yuan, up 24.81% [5] - The talent exchange between CICC and China Galaxy is not a new phenomenon, with previous instances of executive transfers occurring as early as July 2022 [6][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of secondary and perpetual bonds (二永债) is expected to moderately increase in April, breaking the issuance silence since the beginning of the year. The supply is driven by banks' capital - supplementing needs, the demand to meet the Total Loss - Absorbing Capacity (TLAC) gap, and the renewal of expiring bonds. The urgency for state - owned banks to issue secondary and perpetual bonds to supplement capital has been structurally alleviated, and the net supply of state - owned banks' secondary and perpetual bonds in 2026 is expected to remain at a low level [1][19]. - In March, the yields of credit bonds decreased overall. The long - end performance was weaker than the short - end, and the credit spreads widened passively. In April, the credit bond market is expected to show a pattern of "warming demand and moderately increasing supply", which is beneficial for credit bond performance, and the spreads are expected to compress [2]. - For investment strategies, short - term credit bonds can be used as a coupon base, and the duration can be appropriately extended to 4 - 5 years. Institutions with stable liabilities can appropriately allocate ultra - long - term credit bonds of about 7 years. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of excess spread compression of 3 - 5Y medium - and high - grade bank secondary and perpetual bonds [2][40]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 How to View the Subsequent Supply of Secondary and Perpetual Bonds? 3.1.1 Bank Capital Tool Regulatory Approval Feature Summary - The regulatory approval quota is mainly for national and joint - stock banks, with 2023 being the peak year. Since 2024, the approval quota for secondary and perpetual bonds has declined. The proportion of approval quotas for state - owned banks has decreased in the past two years, while that of joint - stock banks and city commercial banks has increased [11]. - The regulatory approval time has seasonal characteristics. In the past two years, it has been concentrated in Q2 and Q4. Q1 is the off - season for approvals, and the quota proportion is mostly less than 10% [13]. - State - owned banks have a fast first - issuance rhythm after approval but issue in multiple batches. Small and medium - sized banks tend to use most of the approved quota at once [18]. 3.1.2 Outlook for the Subsequent Supply of Secondary and Perpetual Bonds - As of the end of March 2026, the effective approval quota for commercial bank capital tools is 189.79 billion yuan, with 71.41 billion yuan already used. State - owned banks have the most remaining quota [19]. - In April, the supply of secondary and perpetual bonds is expected to moderately increase. On one hand, the capital - supplementing urgency of state - owned banks has been alleviated. On the other hand, the redemption and renewal demand for secondary and perpetual bonds in Q2 is nearly 30 billion yuan, with state - owned and joint - stock banks accounting for 79% [19][20]. 3.2 Review and Outlook of the Credit Bond Market in March - In March, the yields of credit bonds decreased overall. The long - end performance was weaker than the short - end, and the credit spreads widened passively. The yields of most credit bonds decreased, with short - term bonds having a larger decline [24][27]. - The scale of wealth management products decreased, and the net - breaking rate increased. As of the end of March, the full - caliber wealth management scale decreased to 31.14 trillion yuan, and the net - breaking rates of all bank wealth management products and wealth management subsidiaries increased [30]. - In April, the credit bond market is expected to show a pattern of "warming demand and moderately increasing supply", which is beneficial for credit bond performance, and the spreads are expected to compress. Short - term credit bonds can be used as a coupon base, and the duration can be appropriately extended to 4 - 5 years [37][40]. 3.3 Primary Market 3.3.1 Issuance Volume - In March 2026, the issuance scale and net financing scale of credit bonds increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The issuance scale was 1.6271 trillion yuan, and the net financing was 349.6 billion yuan. The net financing of urban investment bonds was 50.3 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds and financial bonds was 374.8 billion yuan and - 75.5 billion yuan respectively [44]. 3.3.2 Issuance Term - The average issuance term of credit bonds lengthened month - on - month. From March 1st to March 27th, the average issuance term was 3 years, an increase of 0.23 years compared with February. The average issuance terms of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds all increased [46]. 3.3.3 Issuance Cost - The average issuance cost of credit bonds decreased month - on - month. From March 1st to March 27th, the average issuance interest rate was 2.07%, a decrease of 2bp compared with February. The average issuance interest rate of urban investment bonds decreased by 5bp, that of industrial bonds remained flat, and that of financial bonds increased by 2bp [49]. 3.3.4 Cancellation of Issuance - In March, the number and scale of cancelled credit bond issuances increased month - on - month. A total of 40 credit bonds were cancelled, with a total scale of 2.1985 billion yuan [52]. 3.4 Secondary Market 3.4.1 Trading Volume - In March, the trading volumes of all types of credit bonds increased month - on - month. Urban investment bonds had the largest increase in trading volume, followed by industrial bonds. The trading terms and implicit ratings of different types of bonds also changed [58]. 3.4.2 Trading Liquidity - In March, the turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds all increased. The turnover rates of all terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds increased, and for financial bonds, the turnover rate of the 5 - 7 - year term increased the most [60]. 3.4.3 Spread Tracking - In March, the spreads of urban investment bonds showed different trends. Only the spreads of 3 - year AA(2) - rated, 7 - year all - rated, and 10 - year medium - and low - rated bonds narrowed, while the spreads of other terms widened. The spreads of most AAA - rated and AA - rated industrial bonds widened. The spreads of most bank secondary and perpetual bonds, as well as those of securities and insurance sub - bonds, widened, with the ultra - long - end performing better [66][71][73]. 3.5 Hot Bonds in March - According to the bond liquidity scores, the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores are selected for investors' reference [77]. 3.6 Credit Rating Adjustment Review - In March, the bond ratings of 4 bonds were upgraded, and there was no downgrade [83].

- The report highlights the performance of selection factors in the broker gold stock pool, with factors such as single-quarter revenue growth rate, SUE, and single-quarter ROE performing well recently, while factors like total market capitalization, BP, and expected dividend yield performed poorly[3][29][30] - Year-to-date, factors such as analyst net upward revision, total market capitalization, and SUE showed strong performance, whereas EPTTM, expected dividend yield, and post-earnings announcement gap excess return performed poorly[3][29][30] - The broker gold stock pool exhibits characteristics of mid-market capitalization, high valuation, and strong momentum style exposure based on Barra factor analysis[4][32][35] - The broker gold stock performance enhancement portfolio is constructed using multi-factor optimization, aiming to control deviations in individual stocks and styles from the broker gold stock pool, while aligning industry allocation with the overall public fund industry distribution[45][40][44] - Historical performance of the broker gold stock enhancement portfolio from 2018 to 2025 shows an annualized return of 21.71%, with an annualized excess return of 14.18% relative to the equity-biased mixed fund index, consistently ranking in the top 30% of active equity funds each year[46][49][47] - In March 2026, the broker gold stock enhancement portfolio achieved an absolute return of -6.52% and an excess return of 2.10% relative to the equity-biased mixed fund index[44][40][45] - Year-to-date in 2026, the broker gold stock enhancement portfolio achieved an absolute return of 6.62% and an excess return of 7.53% relative to the equity-biased mixed fund index, ranking in the 10.35% percentile among active equity funds[44][40][45]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing economic adjustments and the impact of geopolitical tensions on various sectors, particularly in energy and consumer goods [3][5][9] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation and commodity prices, especially in light of recent conflicts affecting oil prices and supply chains [7][8][9] Economic News - The People's Bank of China announced measures to regulate credit market operations and reduce financing costs to promote stable economic growth [3] - The U.S. President indicated a potential end to military actions in Iran within two to three weeks, which could influence global oil prices [3] - The report notes a significant increase in housing transactions in Shenzhen, with a 117% month-on-month rise in March 2026 [3] Company Insights - Haier Smart Home reported a record revenue exceeding 300 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 19.55 billion yuan, and announced a share buyback plan [4] - China Pacific Insurance increased its stake in China Life by acquiring 3.1 million shares, raising its holding to 12.08% [4] - Huawei's 2025 annual report showed a revenue of 880.9 billion yuan and a net profit of 68 billion yuan, with R&D investment reaching 192.3 billion yuan [4] Sector Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks based on their growth potential and market conditions, including Jiangfeng Electronics, Dayun Technology, and Zhongmin Resources, highlighting their expected performance in 2026 [5][6] - The food and beverage sector is noted for its resilience, particularly in the snack and casual dining segments, with companies like Ganyuan Foods expected to benefit from new channels and products [11][12] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector is transitioning towards active suspension systems, with significant growth in air suspension systems expected, projected to reach a market size of 121 billion yuan by 2026 [14][16] - Companies like Baolong Technology and Top Group are identified as key players benefiting from this trend [17] Chemical Industry - Huafeng Chemical reported a revenue of 24.198 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 1.858 billion yuan, facing short-term pressure due to product price declines [18][20] - The company is expanding its production capacity, particularly in polyurethane, to strengthen its market position [21] Metal and Mining Sector - Western Mining's revenue for 2025 was 61.687 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.643 billion yuan, driven by increased multi-metal reserves and production [24][25] - The company is enhancing its resource potential through acquisitions and exploration, with significant increases in copper and gold reserves reported [25] Agriculture and Livestock - Muyuan Foods achieved a revenue of 144.145 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 15.487 billion yuan, benefiting from a stable increase in pig sales [29][31] - The company is focusing on cost control and expanding its slaughtering business, which has become a new profit growth point [30]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share capital market in China maintained a positive trend in Q1 2026, with significant growth in equity financing driven by favorable regulatory policies and an active market environment [2]. Group 1: Overview of Equity Financing Market - In Q1 2026, there were 96 equity financing events in the A-share market, an increase of 26 events year-on-year, raising a total of 230.22 billion yuan, which is a 106.88% increase compared to the same period last year [4][10]. - The number of IPOs reached 35, up by 8 from the previous year, with a total fundraising of 29.78 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 79.58% [20][4]. - The private placement (增发) projects accounted for 49 events, increasing by 14 year-on-year, with a total fundraising of 191.23 billion yuan, marking a 136.02% increase [36][4]. Group 2: Distribution of Financing Methods - In Q1 2026, the distribution of financing methods showed that IPOs raised 29.78 billion yuan (12.93% of total), private placements raised 191.23 billion yuan (83.06%), and convertible bonds raised 9.22 billion yuan (4%) [7][10]. Group 3: Industry Distribution of Financing Entities - The non-ferrous metals industry led the fundraising with 71.13 billion yuan, followed by the coal and chemical industries with 60.08 billion yuan and 19.71 billion yuan, respectively [11]. Group 4: Regional Distribution of Financing Entities - Beijing topped the regional fundraising with 79.56 billion yuan from 11 projects, largely due to China Shenhua's private placement. Shandong followed with 65.28 billion yuan from 5 projects, primarily from Hongqiao Group's private placement [14][17]. Group 5: IPO Trends - The IPO market saw 35 issuances in Q1 2026, raising 29.78 billion yuan, a 79.58% increase year-on-year [20]. - The innovation and entrepreneurship board led the fundraising with a total of 51.38% of the total IPO amount, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen main boards followed [22]. Group 6: Top IPO Financing Projects - The highest IPO financing in Q1 2026 was by Zhen Shi Co., Ltd., raising 2.92 billion yuan, followed by Shiya Technology and Hongming Electronics with 2.27 billion yuan and 2.12 billion yuan, respectively [34]. Group 7: Private Placement Trends - In Q1 2026, private placements had 49 projects, raising 191.23 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous year [36]. - Private enterprises led the fundraising with 80.76 billion yuan, followed by central and local state-owned enterprises with a total of 103.26 billion yuan [39]. Group 8: Top Private Placement Projects - The largest private placement project was by Hongqiao Group, raising 63.52 billion yuan for asset acquisition, followed by China Shenhua with two projects totaling 60.08 billion yuan [50]. Group 9: Underwriting Rankings - CITIC Securities ranked first in underwriting amount with 61.95 billion yuan, followed by CITIC Construction Investment with 51.39 billion yuan and Huatai Securities with 45.01 billion yuan [54]. - In terms of the number of underwritings, CITIC Securities led with 15, followed by Huatai Securities with 13 [56].

Group 1: Dividend Statistics of Broad-based Index Constituents - In 2026, the dividend progress for broad-based index constituents shows that among the CSI 300 constituents, 1 company is in the implementation stage, while the SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 each have 1 company in the implementation or proposal stage [11][12]. - The total dividends for the year 2026 for the CSI 300 and SSE 50 are both 1.251 billion, while the CSI 500 has 0.13 billion, and the CSI 1000 is still in the proposal stage [12][11]. - The dividend yield for 2026 has been compared to 2025, indicating a slight increase in yields across the indices [13][14]. Group 2: Dividend Statistics of Industry Index Constituents - The dividend progress for industry index constituents shows that in the pharmaceutical sector, 2 companies are in the implementation stage, while the utilities, machinery, coal, and oil sectors each have 1 company in the implementation stage [15][17]. - The total dividends for the pharmaceutical sector amount to 0.066 billion, utilities 1.251 billion, machinery 0.063 billion, coal 0.13 billion, and oil 0.014 billion [17][15]. - The comparison of dividend yields for 2026 against 2025 shows variations across different sectors, with some sectors experiencing increases [18][19]. Group 3: Index Futures Basis - The annualized basis rates for index futures considering dividends are as follows: CSI 300 near-month 7.15%, far-month 5.10%, near-quarter 3.95%, and far-quarter 3.73%; SSE 50 near-month 1.24%, far-month 0.51%, near-quarter -0.59%, and far-quarter 0.03%; CSI 500 near-month 10.25%, far-month 8.74%, near-quarter 5.96%, and far-quarter 6.66%; CSI 1000 near-month 12.25%, far-month 12.21%, near-quarter 10.95%, and far-quarter 10.81% [6][25]. - The basis data reflects the impact of dividends on the futures contracts, with specific figures for each contract's closing price and basis [25][21]. - Historical basis data for various contracts shows trends in the basis rates over time, indicating fluctuations influenced by dividend announcements [30][31][32][33][36][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [10] Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong performance in 2025, achieving a revenue of 28.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.8 billion, up 72% year-on-year, exceeding the midpoint of the pre-announcement [1] - The company's return on equity (ROE) reached 9.39%, an increase of 3.88 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant operational leverage of 5.31 times, indicating a strong ability to utilize its balance sheet [1] - The company is leading in international business, with international revenue and net profit for 2025 reaching 15.2 billion and 5.1 billion HKD, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 41% and 78% [10] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 285 billion, with a quarterly revenue of 77 billion, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the quarter was 32 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 44% [1] Business Segments - Brokerage income for 2025 was 6.2 billion, up 45% year-on-year, while investment banking income surged to 5 billion, a 63% increase year-on-year [2] - Asset management revenue reached 1.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31%, with total assets under management (AUM) at 596.9 billion, up 8% year-on-year [2] Market Position and Growth - The company has a strong market position, with a credit market share of 2.59%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, and a significant increase in lending to 65.9 billion, up 51% year-on-year [3] - The report anticipates continued growth in net profit, projecting 11.3 billion for 2026, 12.7 billion for 2027, and 13.6 billion for 2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 13%, and 7%, respectively [10]

Macro Strategy - The market style may adjust based on the supply-demand pattern brought by the oil price central [1] - The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has not shown effective signs of easing, maintaining high volatility in global assets, with US stocks declining significantly and oil prices remaining elevated [1] - Analysts have raised the Q1 2026 growth expectations for the US while significantly lowering the Q2 growth expectations, alongside an increase in inflation expectations for the upcoming quarters [1] Financial Products - The macro monthly timing model for March 2026 scored -2, indicating a 30.77% probability of the A-share index rising in the following month, suggesting a potential adjustment in the A-share market [2] - The trading volume in the A-share market decreased from 2.30 trillion yuan to 1.86 trillion yuan, reflecting increased volatility influenced by overseas factors [2] - The WTI crude oil price rose by 7.09% on March 31, while the Nasdaq index fell by 2.15%, indicating potential future market shocks [2] Fiscal Policy - The growth rate of narrow fiscal expenditure in 2026 is expected to reach 4.6%, an increase of approximately 0.9 percentage points from the previous year [4] - The growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure is projected to be 5.3%, up by about 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The growth rate of real broad fiscal expenditure is anticipated to be 4.8%, marking a significant increase of approximately 4.2 percentage points from the previous year, the highest in nearly four years [4] Industry Analysis - The solid waste sector is experiencing strong growth, with a positive cash flow and increased dividends, driven by the revaluation of oil and gas assets [18] - The company "海螺创业" reported a revenue of 6.548 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 2.245 billion yuan, reflecting a 4% and 11% year-on-year increase, respectively [18] - "绿色动力" achieved a revenue of 3.534 billion yuan, with a net profit of 618 million yuan, indicating a 4% and 6% year-on-year increase, respectively [18] Precious Metals - The gold market is under pressure due to the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, with COMEX gold closing at 4489.70 USD/oz, a slight decrease of 0.05% [19] - The Turkish central bank's sale of gold has intensified market volatility, with gold prices facing continued pressure [19] - The geopolitical uncertainty has led to a simultaneous rise in gold and oil prices, marking a significant shift in market dynamics [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the company's stock price will outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% [11]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the company is in line with expectations, with significant growth in derivative products being the highlight. In 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 35.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and a net profit of 16.3 billion, up 80% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from its strategic positioning, technological investments, and a strong high-net-worth client base, enhancing its digital wealth management services and investment profitability [11]. - The company’s total assets reached 1.1 trillion, a 32% increase from the beginning of the year, with a return on equity (ROE) of 9.2%, slightly down year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2025, the company reported total operating revenue of 35.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7%. Excluding the impact of Assetmark, the revenue growth was 28% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 16.3 billion, reflecting an 80% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue breakdown shows that self-operated, brokerage, credit, investment banking, asset management, and other segments contributed 38%, 25%, 12%, 10%, 9%, and 5% to the main revenue, respectively [1]. Brokerage and Investment Banking - Brokerage income for 2025 was 9.1 billion, a 42% increase year-on-year, with a quarterly income of 2.5 billion, up 2% year-on-year. The company’s brokerage fee rates are under pressure due to market conditions, but it has leveraged its strengths in ETF trading [2]. - Investment banking revenue reached 3.1 billion, a 48% increase year-on-year, with a quarterly income of 1.1 billion, up 56% year-on-year. The company led the industry in the number of projects approved for independent financial advisory [2]. Asset Management - Asset management revenue was 1.8 billion, down 57% year-on-year, primarily due to the sale of Assetmark. The company’s assets under management (AUM) reached 708.5 billion, a 27% increase year-on-year, driven by collective asset management plans and public funds [3]. Derivatives and Funding - Derivative products saw significant growth, with self-operated income at 13.8 billion, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year, but a 56% increase when excluding the impact of Assetmark. The company’s leverage ratio increased to 4.13 times, indicating a strong performance in non-directional trading [4]. - Interest income for 2025 was 4.4 billion, a 63% increase year-on-year, with the company’s lending amounting to 186 billion, a 40% increase year-on-year [8]. International Business - The company’s international assets reached 205.4 billion HKD, a 38% increase year-on-year, contributing 18% to the overall net profit. The issuance of 10 billion HKD in convertible bonds is expected to enhance revenue and ROE performance [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market in the second quarter may continue to oscillate and recover. The term spread is expected to gradually decline, and the credit spread may fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to continue leveraging, selecting rides, and appropriately extending the duration. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fall to around 1.6% - 1.7% around the middle of the year [5][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 March Bond Market: Oscillation, Widened Term Spread, and Narrowed Credit Spread - In March, the long - term bonds oscillated and adjusted. The term spread widened, and the credit spread narrowed. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds increased by 4.2bps and 7.9bps respectively to 1.82% and 2.35%. The current 30 - year and 1 - year Treasury bond spread is as high as 113.1bps, and the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year bonds is 53.5bps, almost the highest level since 2023. Except for 3 - year and 5 - year Tier 2 capital bonds, the spreads between other credit bonds and the same - term China Development Bank bonds are basically around or within the 20th percentile since 2023 [1][9]. - The current bond market differentiation and the weak long - term bond situation are the result of multiple factors. Rising prices have led to market concerns about inflation pressure pushing up interest rates, which is more evident in long - term bonds. The short - end is relatively stable due to loose funds. The instability of long - term bonds has led institutions to shorten the duration, and the decrease in inter - bank deposit rates has made wealth management and money market funds increase bond allocation, reducing short - term credit rates [1][9]. 3.2 Fundamentals: Continued Stability with Increased K - shaped Differentiation - The Spring Festival factor has boosted the economic data from January to February to some extent, and the economy has basically remained stable. After excluding the Spring Festival factor, the real recovery momentum of the economic fundamentals has not significantly strengthened. The Spring Festival in 2026 was late, driving up data such as industrial added value and exports. The Spring Festival factor increased exports by 6.1 percentage points. In March, affected by the delayed resumption of work after the festival, relevant economic data may decline [2][13]. - In March, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.4%, returning above the boom - bust line. There is a certain seasonality in the rebound, and the current level is comparable to the seasonal average. The service and construction industry PMIs also rebounded, but their absolute levels are low. Overall, the economy shows a stable trend [17]. - The rise in prices has not effectively translated into investment and financing demand and interest rate - rising pressure. PPI is likely to turn positive in March, but the rise has significant structural characteristics. The PPI of industries related to non - ferrous metals and crude oil has rebounded significantly, while the PPI of mid - and downstream industries is still under pressure. The rebound in PPI has not led to a comprehensive improvement in corporate profits. There is a significant K - shaped differentiation in corporate profits, with only a few industries seeing large profit increases, while the profit growth rates of other industries are still low, resulting in low financing demand [21]. - In April, the financing demand may decline seasonally, which will further widen the bank's asset gap and increase the bond - allocation demand. The issuance of government bonds in April is usually the lowest in a year, and the social financing scale remains low, resulting in insufficient asset supply. On the demand side, the gap between bank deposit growth and loan growth is still large, and the weak loan trend may continue, which will drive banks to increase bond - allocation [23]. 3.3 Short - term Factors Drive the Intensification of Long - Short - end Differentiation, which May Not Last in the Long Run - The recent long - short - end differentiation is mainly due to short - term factors such as inflation sentiment and end - of - quarter bank institutional behavior adjustments, rather than fundamental and capital factors. Inflation itself should not trend - wise push up long - term interest rates. The current long - term bond's greater reaction to prices is inconsistent with historical experience. The current price increase is mainly due to imported factors, which will not increase corporate investment and financing demand and has no trend - wise impact on interest rates [33]. - After the end of the quarter, the bank's bond - allocation power will recover, and combined with loose funds, the market may continue to recover. The previous bond market adjustment before the end of the quarter was mainly related to bank institutional behavior. Banks may sell bonds to realize floating profits at the end of the quarter and adjust their bond - holding structures due to end - of - quarter indicator assessments. After the end of the quarter, the bank's bond - allocation demand is expected to recover, and the short positions of trading institutions will be closed, driving the market to recover [34].