Core Insights - Export has been a significant driver of China's economic growth in recent years, but data from the WTO indicates that from 2022 to the first three quarters of 2025, China's export growth in USD terms is below the global average [1] - The share of China's exports in the global market has declined from a peak of 14.9% in 2021 [1] - Chief Economist Li Xunlei from Zhongtai International highlights that the divergence between intuition and data is due to the drag from export prices and exchange rates [1] Group 1 - Excluding the effects of export prices and exchange rates, China's export volume share in the global market has been steadily increasing, rising from 13.2% in 2019 to 17.0% in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - This increase is attributed to industrial transformation and upgrading, a decline in export product prices, and the Belt and Road Initiative opening new markets [1] - Li Xunlei anticipates that China's export volume share will continue to rise, supported by the 20th Central Committee's focus on technology and industrial upgrades [1] Group 2 - The short-term export price advantage is expected to remain intact, and improvements in the external environment are anticipated [1] - The negative impact of price factors is expected to diminish, with the RMB exchange rate likely to stabilize or appreciate [1] - Li Xunlei estimates that by 2026, China's export share in the global market will rebound, stabilizing around 17% by 2030, which represents an increase of over 2 percentage points from current levels, indicating resilience in year-on-year export growth [1]