Workflow
中国资本市场投资逻辑
icon
Search documents
野村东方国际证券资产管理部总经理兼投资总监肖令君:解码中美关税调整后的中国资本市场投资逻辑
Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have exceeded market expectations, alleviating concerns about China's exports and economic growth, and marking the beginning of a longer market cycle [3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The underlying logic for being bullish on the Chinese market since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" is based on China's strong competitiveness in manufacturing, which remains evident despite tariff challenges [3]. - China's manufacturing global competitiveness is rooted in a complete industrial chain and efficient supply capabilities, with flexible responses such as transshipment trade and price adjustment strategies potentially mitigating the actual impact of tariffs [3]. - A quantitative analysis conducted during the market downturn on April 7 indicated that the market was oversold, a viewpoint that has been validated by subsequent market performance [3]. Group 2: A-Share Market Drivers - Valuation-wise, A-shares are at low levels compared to major global markets and their historical averages, with the CSI 300 PB at 1.31 times, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 5 times [4]. - From an economic fundamentals and corporate earnings perspective, the Chinese economy is showing signs of recovery, with corporate earnings rebounding and positive revenue and profit data from listed companies [4]. - On the risk appetite and sentiment front, government policies aimed at stabilizing capital markets are promoting a shift in A-shares towards shareholder returns and addressing issues that harm minority shareholders [4]. - The internationalization of A-shares presents significant growth potential, with foreign ownership still having considerable room for increase [4].