中期选举魔咒
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打破百年魔咒?特朗普欲改写历史,阻止执政党中期选举必败定律
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-05 07:25
Core Points - Trump is actively pushing for redistricting in key states to break the historical trend of the ruling party losing in midterm elections [1][3] - The Republican Party currently holds a slim majority in the House of Representatives with 219 seats to the Democrats' 212, making the House crucial for Trump's policy agenda [3][5] - The strategy of redistricting, known as "gerrymandering," involves manipulating electoral district boundaries to favor one party over another [5][7] Group 1 - The concept of "gerrymandering" allows the ruling party to concentrate opposition voters into fewer districts while spreading their own supporters across multiple districts to secure wins [7][9] - Trump has targeted Texas for redistricting, aiming to gain five additional seats for the Republican Party [9][11] - The Democratic Party is also engaging in redistricting efforts in California, seeking to gain five seats in response to Republican actions [11][12] Group 2 - The ongoing "map war" reflects the polarization in American politics, with both parties using technical means to outmaneuver each other within the rules [14][15] - This strategic manipulation of electoral maps may lead to election outcomes that diverge from the actual public sentiment, pushing moderate representatives out of the political landscape [15][16] - If Trump successfully breaks the midterm election curse through this strategy, it may set a precedent for future political maneuvers following the decennial census [15][16]