互惠税率政策

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摩根大通:美国_关于关税税率的更新
摩根· 2025-07-14 00:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the industry, projecting average effective tariff rates to settle in the mid- to high-teens, which is expected to weigh on growth and boost inflation in the second half of the year [1][2]. Core Insights - The new tariff rates announced are mostly similar to or slightly lower than those from April 2, with the effective tariff rate rising to 13.4% following the Vietnam framework [2][9]. - The report anticipates that the effective tariff rate could increase by approximately 1.2% due to new reciprocal tariffs for 14 countries, with an additional potential increase of 1.7% if other countries revert to their April 2 levels [9]. - Future tariffs on specific sectors, such as a proposed 50% tariff on copper and a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, could significantly impact the overall effective tariff rate [9]. Summary by Sections Tariff Rate Updates - President Trump delayed the tariff rate reset until August 1, with new rates for 14 countries to take effect on that date [1]. - The average effective tariff rate is expected to settle in the mid- to high-teens, impacting growth and inflation [1][2]. Sector-Specific Tariffs - The report highlights potential tariffs of 50% on copper and 200% on pharmaceuticals, which could significantly raise the overall effective tariff rate [9]. - The BRICS countries may face an additional 10% tariff, which could further increase the effective tariff rate by 1.8% [9]. Future Outlook - The outlook for tariff rates remains uncertain, with the possibility of country-specific carve-outs and trade deals being negotiated before the August 1 deadline [7]. - The report outlines a static estimate of effective tariff rates using 2024 trade weights, indicating various potential changes based on different scenarios [8].