Group 1 - The easing of US-China trade tensions has led to a decrease in expectations for aggressive monetary easing by central banks in export-dependent economies in emerging Asia [1][4] - Swap traders now anticipate a 9 basis point rate cut from the Bank of Thailand in the next three months, down from nearly 20 basis points in late April [1][4] - Similar trends are observed in Malaysia and South Korea, where the expected monetary easing has also decreased [4][7] Group 2 - The optimism surrounding economic growth is reflected in the reduced pressure for significant rate cuts across most Asian countries due to the latest signs of easing in the global tariff war [4][9] - Countries with lower export dependency, such as the Philippines and India, show little change in their monetary policy expectations, indicating a divergence in economic outlooks [7][8] - The trade-to-GDP ratios for 2023 highlight the export reliance of Malaysia (132%), Thailand (129%), and South Korea (88%), compared to India (46%) [7][8] Group 3 - The potential for a US-China trade agreement could positively impact the region, but each country must negotiate separately with the US [4][9] - Japan, heavily reliant on exports, may see a boost in economic growth from the easing trade tensions, with expectations for continued interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan [8][9] - The recent trade consensus suggests a significant reduction in tariffs, with US tariffs on China dropping from 145% to 30% for most goods, providing a bullish signal for global stock markets [9]