1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 10, the coke main contract closed at 1,349 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.48%. The coke market has little change in fundamentals, and the off - season suppresses the industry atmosphere. However, factors such as coking coal supply disturbances and the easing of Sino - US frictions drive the price to rebound slightly at a low level, and the main contract maintains a low - level shock pattern [5][34]. - On June 10, the coking coal main contract closed at 785 points, with an intraday increase of 0.51%. The uncertainty on the coking coal supply side increases, and the Sino - US trade friction eases, driving the short - term rebound of coking coal futures. But the long - term supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and the sustainability of this rebound remains to be seen [6][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - On June 9, the Sino - US economic and trade delegations held the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London, following the high - level economic and trade talks in Geneva in May [8]. - On June 10, Mongolia's small TT company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price was 65 US dollars/ton, and all 51,200 tons on offer failed to sell. Since the beginning of the year, all 10 auctions have failed, with a total of 486,400 tons unsold [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Coke: The latest quoted price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke for flat - position delivery is 1,270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.22%, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts is about 1,401 yuan/ton. The price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke for ex - warehouse delivery also decreased [13]. - Coking coal: The latest quoted price of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The prices of Australian and Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port also showed different degrees of decline [13]. 3.3 Futures Market - Coke: The main contract closed at 1,349 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.48%, a trading volume of 31,312 lots, and an open interest of 54,018 lots, with an increase of 255 lots compared to the previous trading day [14]. - Coking coal: The main contract closed at 785 points, with an intraday increase of 0.51%, a trading volume of 1,417,228 lots, and an open interest of 567,843 lots, with an increase of 10,312 lots compared to the previous trading day [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to coke and coking coal inventory, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [15][22][29] 3.5 Future Outlook - Coke: The fundamentals of the coke market change little. The off - season suppresses the industry, but factors like coking coal supply disturbances and the easing of Sino - US frictions drive a slight low - level rebound, and the main contract maintains a low - level shock pattern [5][34]. - Coking coal: The uncertainty on the coking coal supply side increases, and the short - term rebound is driven by the easing of Sino - US trade frictions. However, the long - term supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and the sustainability of the rebound remains to be observed [6][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector is experiencing fluctuations at the bottom of the PMI index, with expectations for a gradual recovery in demand driven by government policies and market dynamics [4][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the home decoration materials segment, particularly with the implementation of "old-for-new" subsidies and service consumption stimulus policies [4][16] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The construction materials sector has shown a slight increase of 0.18% in the past week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index, which decreased by -1.08% and -0.02% respectively [4] - The report highlights that the cement market price is currently at 367.8 RMB/ton, down by 3.0 RMB/ton from the previous week and down by 6.3 RMB/ton compared to the same period last year [20][21] 2. Cement Market - The average cement inventory ratio is reported at 65.7%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous week, but down by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [25] - The average daily cement shipment rate is 47.8%, up by 1.4 percentage points from the previous week but down by 5.3 percentage points compared to last year [25] - The report notes that the cement price is expected to stabilize or slightly rebound in the coming months due to supply-side adjustments and demand recovery [12][19] 3. Glass Fiber Market - The report indicates that the profitability of the glass fiber sector remains low, with many second and third-tier companies operating at breakeven or loss [13] - The demand for high-end products in wind power and thermoplastics is expected to continue growing, which may support profitability for leading companies [13] - The report recommends companies like China Jushi and suggests monitoring others such as Zhongcai Technology and Shandong Fiberglass [13] 4. Glass Market - The glass sector is facing weak terminal demand, with inventory levels remaining high and price pressures expected to increase as the market enters a seasonal downturn [14][15] - The report recommends Qibin Group as a leading player in the glass market, with a focus on its cost advantages and growth potential in photovoltaic glass [14] 5. Home Decoration Materials - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to enhance the demand for home decoration materials [16] - Companies such as Beixin Building Materials and Arrow Home are recommended for their strong growth potential and market positioning [16]

Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: May 30, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Tariff easing and a continuous small increase in mid - June quotes have led to the stabilization and recovery of the index. The June quotes are relatively firm. Maersk's mid - June quote increased to $2319, indicating decent demand. Most other airlines' quotes remained stable in the $2500 - $3300 range. The decline in US - line trade data may be due to the time - lag effect of the Sino - US trade friction easing on May 12. The peak - season rush for exports may not be falsified. The June contract will follow the delivery logic, and if shipping companies are determined to hold prices, there may be a small increase. The far - month 08 and 10 contracts are mainly based on the logic of the US - line rush exacerbating the supply - demand contradiction in the peak season, and are more affected by sentiment. If the June prices are strong, the central price of the far - month peak - season contracts should also rise [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market on the day: Due to tariff easing and rising mid - June quotes, the index stabilized. Maersk's mid - June quote rose to $2319, while most other airlines' quotes were stable. The decline in US - line trade data may be due to a time - lag. The June contract will follow the delivery logic, and far - month contracts are affected by sentiment [8] 2. Industry News - From May 19th to 23rd, the China export container shipping market continued to improve, with most long - haul routes' freight rates rising. In April, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year. On May 23rd, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index rose 7.2% to 1586.12 points. In the European route, the eurozone's economic recovery faces challenges. The freight rates of European and Mediterranean routes increased significantly, while those of North American routes also rose. In the near - ocean routes, the freight rates to Japan remained stable, the rate to Southeast Asia increased, and the rate to South Korea decreased. Due to tariff policy uncertainty and inventory shortages in US retailers, shipping companies plan to increase freight rates. Future four weeks will see 75,000 TEU of overtime ships on the US - line. The EU's new draft policy may impact the European small - package market [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index shows that from May 19th to May 26th, the European route's index decreased by 1.4%, while the US - West route's index increased by 18.9% [12] 3.2 Futures Market of Container Shipping Index (European Route) - Not elaborated in text, but figures of the main and secondary - main contracts' trends are provided [16] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Figures of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates are provided [17][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to fluctuate in a large range of 19,000 - 21,000. Next week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level, with an estimated range of 19,800 - 20,500. The market is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and the expected weakening of demand reduces the upward momentum of aluminum prices. Although the positive impact of the easing of Sino - US trade frictions still exists, the boosting effect of macro - sentiment may gradually weaken. The supply of electrolytic aluminum has reached its upper limit, and the focus should be on the demand side. Overall, the aluminum market is expected to be in a large - range shock, with a relatively strong shock in late May [5][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: In mid - to late May, due to the alternation of peak and off - peak seasons, the end of PV rush installation, and the decline in export orders, the market still expects weakening demand, which reduces the upward momentum of aluminum prices. The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level next week, with an estimated range of 19,800 - 20,500 [5]. - **Mid - line Strategy**: Suggest to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was expected that the aluminum price would continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level, and the Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract was temporarily seen in the range of 19,500 - 20,000. It was advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level, with an estimated range of 19,800 - 20,500. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading. For spot enterprises, it is advisable to purchase and stock up as needed [8][9]. 3.3 Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: The cost of mines in Guinea varies greatly. If the CIF price of standard - grade ore in Guinea falls below $70 per dry ton and remains at this level for some time, some mines may choose to reduce production. Currently, the supply of imported ore is relatively loose, and low - cost mines have a certain ability to resist price declines. There may be a further decline in the price of imported ore, but it is expected to gradually bottom out below $70 per dry ton. If there are policy disturbances, there may be a rebound [10]. - **Alumina Market**: As of mid - May, the national alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons (the increase in production capacity mainly came from Hebei), the operating capacity was 86.75 million tons, a decrease of 550,000 tons compared with before the holiday, and the operating rate was 78.2%. Recently, the supply side of alumina has changed frequently, the scale of production reduction has expanded, and the output has decreased periodically. Coupled with the relatively strong purchasing and replenishment意愿 of some downstream aluminum plants, the demand has increased slightly, which alleviates the oversupply situation and supports the price increase [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of the week of May 15, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased steadily to 843,000 tons. The profit of electrolytic aluminum plants is at a high level, and the production in Sichuan Province continues to rise. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling of 45 million tons, the resumption of production in Yunnan, Sichuan and other places is nearly completed, and the new production capacity is difficult to release due to environmental protection policies and energy - consumption dual - control. Overseas markets are restricted by high energy costs. Although the production is increasing, the overall capacity utilization rate is already high, and the room for further production increase this year is limited. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9% [10]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,600 yuan/ton, compared with about 1,500 yuan/ton last week. The phased easing of Sino - US tariff confrontation, but its boosting effect on exports remains to be seen [10]. - **Demand**: - **Aluminum Profiles**: The national profile operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 56.5% this week. Benefiting from the support of real - estate policies, the policy benefits are gradually transmitted to the industry, but the new industrial orders are still weak [12]. - **Aluminum Plates, Strips and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 67.2%. The cancellation of reciprocal tariffs has limited impact on the export of aluminum plates and strips. The recovery of terminal demand has been gradually transmitted to the upstream aluminum processing industry, providing certain support for the operation of the aluminum plate and strip sector. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 71.6%. The cancellation of Sino - US trade reciprocal tariffs may lead to a short - term rebound in exports in the household appliances and electronics sectors, driving the export - related operation of domestic aluminum foil enterprises [12]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of leading domestic aluminum cable enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 65.2% this week. Considering the enterprise's production schedule and order prospects, the industry operating rate is expected to remain stable [12]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of leading domestic primary aluminum alloy enterprises decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 54.6% this week. Enterprises reported that orders and operating conditions were slightly weaker than those in early May. The industry operating rate may still maintain a stable and weak trend next week. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 55.0%. The current industry cost pressure is still prominent. The continuous increase in the price of primary aluminum drives up the price of scrap aluminum, while the increase in the price of alloy ingot products is limited, resulting in a further expansion of the theoretical loss of the industry [12]. - **Inventory**: - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 580,000 tons, a decrease of about 6% compared with last week and about 22% lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level since 2017. The easing of Sino - US tariffs has led to a significant increase in the price of European routes recently. There may be a situation of rush - exporting during the window period of tariff confrontation. May and June may not be the off - peak season. The inventory of aluminum rods is 129,500 tons, a decrease of about 14% compared with last week and about 28% lower than the same period last year. The inventory - reduction speed has accelerated again, and it is at the mid - axis level since 2016. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been continuously declining slightly since May 2024 and is currently at a low level since 1990 [12][17]. - **Profit**: - **Alumina Profit**: The current average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 450 yuan/ton, compared with about 300 yuan/ton last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,200 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,900 yuan/ton, compared with a profit of 2,500 yuan/ton last week. The profit is at a relatively high level [13]. - **Market Expectation**: The positive impact of the easing of Sino - US trade frictions still exists, but the boosting effect of macro - sentiment may gradually weaken over time. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there are further policies to support the aluminum price. Fundamentally, more attention should be paid to the demand side. The supply of electrolytic aluminum has reached its upper limit, and the negative impact is limited. On the demand side, the downstream demand is gradually entering the off - peak season, and the overall demand growth momentum is insufficient. However, due to the delivery of power - transmission and transformation orders and the start of the second - batch tender in the aluminum cable industry, the demand is still guaranteed in the short term, and the回调 space is limited. Therefore, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate around the 20,000 mark next week to accumulate energy for an upward attack [13]. - **Key Concerns**: - Whether the mining process of Guinea mines will have a major impact on imported ores after June. - Whether there will be a rush - exporting situation during the window period of the easing of Sino - US tariff confrontation [13]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - This week, the bauxite price changed from falling to stable. In the market situation of oversupply, sellers are in a passive position. However, the price of $70 per dry ton is approaching the cost price of some high - cost mines, and mines have the intention to support the price. Recently, the price of thermal coal has been running weakly. Due to high inventory and low demand in the off - peak season, most traders are still pessimistic about the subsequent price trend. The price of alumina has risen significantly. The previous loss - induced production reduction has indeed been reflected in the supply - demand level. At the same time, it is rumored that Guinea has tightened mining licenses, and the alumina price was炒作 again near the weekend. The Sino - US tariff easing measures are being gradually implemented, and with the rebound of the alumina end, the electrolytic aluminum price has reached the 20,000 - yuan mark; the performance of alloys is relatively weak, and the weak actual orders and the expected increase in scrap supply suppress the disk [14][15]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - This week, the domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for the fifth consecutive week, mainly due to the increase in imported ore arrivals and the cautious procurement of domestic alumina plants. However, the production rate of alumina is rising rapidly. Considering the shipping rhythm of Guinea, the supply of aluminum ore may turn tight again after June and July. The alumina inventory continues to decline slightly. The overseas LME aluminum inventory continues to decline slightly. Since the end of May 2024, it has been continuously declining slightly. The room for production increase of overseas electrolytic aluminum plants this year is limited. With the easing of Sino - US - EU tariffs, the inventory may continue to decline [16][17]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit of Key Links in the Domestic Aluminum Industry**: This week, the average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is expected to be about 2,580 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 450 yuan/ton, compared with a profit of about 300 yuan/ton last week; the production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,200 yuan/ton, compared with about 17,100 yuan/ton last week, and the theoretical profit is about 2,900 yuan/ton (compared with 2,500 yuan/ton last week); the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,600 yuan/ton, compared with a loss of about 1,500 yuan/ton last week [19]. - **Operating Rate of Downstream Processing Enterprises**: This week, the operating rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.6%, showing a differentiated pattern. In the off - peak season, the operating rate is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [21][22]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure is slightly bullish. Under the situation of low inventory and the possibility of another rush - exporting in China, the spot price provides certain upward support for the futures price [28]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) is at a premium of $5.79 per ton (compared with a discount of $9.4 per ton last week). Since mid - to late May 2024, the LME inventory has been continuously declining slightly. Currently, the LME aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level since 1990. With the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the market focus has returned to the low inventory. The spot quotation of A00 aluminum ingots is at a premium of 80 yuan/ton, compared with a discount of 0 yuan/ton last week. As Sino - US gradually implement the measures to ease tariffs and the domestic social inventory is relatively low, the phenomenon of spot traders adding prices to pick up goods has increased. This week, the spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,790 yuan/ton, compared with - 3,190 yuan/ton last week. Currently, the spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a low level in recent years, which provides obvious support for the electrolytic aluminum price [31][36][37]. 3.9 Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum Variety Fund Trend**: In the past two weeks, the net long position has continued to rise slightly. After the short - sellers significantly increased their positions in mid - March, they have slightly reduced their positions, but the long - sellers have continued to reduce their positions since mid - March. The short - term market may continue a narrow - range rebound [39]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum Variety Fund Trend**: This week, the net long position remained stable, and both the long and short sides mainly reduced their positions slightly. The net long position of funds with a financial speculation background continued to remain stable and is still at a high level since the end of 2024. The net short position of funds with a background of mid - and downstream enterprises has slightly narrowed. From the performance of the current main funds, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the week of May 16, 2025, the prices of US soybean futures first rose and then fell. The prices rose due to the substantial progress in the China - US economic and trade talks in Geneva, Switzerland, and the release of the "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks", as well as the bullish May USDA report. The prices fell because of concerns about biodiesel policies. The main 07 contract of US soybeans had a weekly decline of 0.12%, and the main 07 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decline of 0.75% [2]. - In the same week, domestic soybean meal futures prices showed mixed trends, and soybean No. 1 futures prices fluctuated horizontally. Under the background of the easing of China - US trade frictions, soybean meal futures prices were generally weak, but recently the market was mainly in a volatile state. For soybean No. 1, the spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures had no clear guidance and mainly fluctuated following other soybean varieties. The main m2509 contract of soybean meal had a weekly decline of 0.00%, and the main a2507 contract of soybean No. 1 had a weekly increase of 0.36% [3]. - In the coming week (May 19 - 23, 2025), it is expected that the futures prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No. 1 will fluctuate. The easing of China - US trade frictions is bullish for the US soybean futures prices and bearish for domestic soybean meal. It is expected that the market will shift to fundamental trading, and more attention should be paid to the weather, planting, and early growth in the US soybean - producing areas. For domestic soybean No. 1, due to the small amount of remaining grain in the market, strong spot prices, and the market waiting for state - reserve soybean sales, the prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Soybean Market Fundamentals - **US soybean net sales**: In the week of May 8, 2025, for the 2024/25 US soybean exports, the weekly export shipments were about 430,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 66%; the cumulative export shipments were about 43.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The current - year (2024/25) weekly net sales were about 280,000 tons, and the next - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 490,000 tons, with a total of about 770,000 tons, in line with expectations (550,000 - 1,000,000 tons). The weekly net sales to China in the current and next crop years were both 0 [3]. - **US soybean planting progress**: As of the week of May 12, 2025, the US soybean planting progress was 48% (market expectation was 47%), compared with 35% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 37%, which was on the fast side and had a slightly bearish impact [3]. - **May USDA report**: The report was slightly bullish. It first estimated the global soybean supply - demand balance for 2025/26, showing an increase in production, a higher increase in consumption than production, a slight increase in ending stocks, and a decrease in the stock - to - use ratio, indicating a tightening of the global soybean supply - demand situation. It also lowered the ending stocks and stock - to - use ratios of US soybeans in 2024/25 and 2025/26, directly benefiting US soybeans [3]. - **Brazilian soybean CNF premiums, import costs, and crushing margins**: As of the week of May 16, 2025, the average CNF premiums of Brazilian soybeans from June to August decreased week - on - week, the average import costs increased week - on - week, and the average crushing margins decreased week - on - week [3]. - **Weather forecast in US soybean - producing areas**: According to the May 17, 2025, weather forecast, in the next two weeks (May 17 - June 1, 2025), there would be more precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas (more precipitation on May 19 - 20 and less in other periods), and the temperature would first be low and then high, with a neutral impact [3]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - **Trading volume**: As of the week of May 16, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 80,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease from about 260,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - **Pick - up volume**: The average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 157,000 tons, a week - on - week increase from about 150,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - **Basis**: The weekly average basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 168 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease from about 287 yuan/ton in the previous week and compared with about - 94 yuan/ton in the same period last year [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of May 9, 2025, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 70,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 6% and a year - on - year decrease of about 86% [5]. - **Soybean crushing volume**: As of the week of May 16, 2025, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 1.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase from 1.85 million tons in the previous week. The next week (May 17 - 23, 2025), the expected crushing volume was about 2.24 million tons [5]. - **Imported soybean auctions**: On May 13, 2025, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction about 42,800 tons of imported soybeans, with an actual transaction of about 150,000 tons and a transaction rate of about 35%. On May 21, 2025, it planned to auction 267,000 tons of imported soybeans [5]. Domestic Soybean No. 1 Spot Market - **Soybean prices**: In the week of May 16, 2025, the net - grain purchase prices of soybeans in some parts of Northeast China increased by 20 yuan/ton to 4,180 - 4,280 yuan/ton; in some parts of the Inner Pass region, they increased by 20 yuan/ton to 5,100 - 5,240 yuan/ton; the sales prices of Northeast edible soybeans in the sales areas remained the same as the previous week at 4,520 - 4,720 yuan/ton [6]. - **New - season soybean planting in the Northeast**: In the new - season crop sowing period in the Northeast, in some areas with sufficient accumulated temperature and suitable soil conditions, dry - land sowing was completed and entered the field management stage. Due to wet or dry soil in other areas, farmers were waiting for a better sowing time. The purchase volume of trade entities was slow, and the purchase prices were slightly increased [6]. - **State - reserve soybean sales**: The sporadic sales of local regulatory reserves in Heilongjiang were in the final stage, and the market was still waiting for subsequent state - reserve soybean sales [6]. - **Market demand in sales areas**: Due to high temperatures and sufficient vegetable supplies in many domestic areas, the demand for soybean products was suppressed, with slow overall transactions, difficulty in price increases, and cautious procurement from the origin [6].

Group 1 - The easing of US-China trade tensions has led to a decrease in expectations for aggressive monetary easing by central banks in export-dependent economies in emerging Asia [1][4] - Swap traders now anticipate a 9 basis point rate cut from the Bank of Thailand in the next three months, down from nearly 20 basis points in late April [1][4] - Similar trends are observed in Malaysia and South Korea, where the expected monetary easing has also decreased [4][7] Group 2 - The optimism surrounding economic growth is reflected in the reduced pressure for significant rate cuts across most Asian countries due to the latest signs of easing in the global tariff war [4][9] - Countries with lower export dependency, such as the Philippines and India, show little change in their monetary policy expectations, indicating a divergence in economic outlooks [7][8] - The trade-to-GDP ratios for 2023 highlight the export reliance of Malaysia (132%), Thailand (129%), and South Korea (88%), compared to India (46%) [7][8] Group 3 - The potential for a US-China trade agreement could positively impact the region, but each country must negotiate separately with the US [4][9] - Japan, heavily reliant on exports, may see a boost in economic growth from the easing trade tensions, with expectations for continued interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan [8][9] - The recent trade consensus suggests a significant reduction in tariffs, with US tariffs on China dropping from 145% to 30% for most goods, providing a bullish signal for global stock markets [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The easing of trade tensions between China and the United States is expected to positively impact the company's North American business, with ongoing measures to build overseas capacity and increase terminal prices [1][2] - The company has a significant exposure to the U.S. market, with an estimated risk exposure of approximately $1 billion, and is actively working on capacity transfer and global layout to mitigate tariff impacts [3] - The company is recognized as a leading exporter of tools from China, focusing on product innovation and global operations, which positions it well for long-term market share growth [4] Summary by Sections Trade Relations and Tariff Changes - The recent U.S.-China trade talks resulted in a substantial reduction of tariffs from 125% to 34%, with a temporary pause on some tariffs, which is expected to benefit the company's tool segment [2] - The effective tax rate for exports to the U.S. has decreased significantly, allowing for potential price adjustments in the North American market [2] Capacity Expansion and Pricing Strategy - The company has accelerated the establishment of overseas production capacity, particularly in Southeast Asia, to counteract tariff pressures, with 23 production bases globally as of 2024 [3] - The company has begun to implement price increases to pass on tariff costs to downstream customers, starting in Q2 2025 [3] Market Position and Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 2.635 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 11.91x, indicating strong growth potential [4][6] - The global market share for hand tools is expected to reach 6.1% in 2024, with a long-term outlook for further increases as global supply chains are restructured [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The easing of trade tensions between China and the United States is expected to positively impact the company's North American business, with ongoing measures to build overseas capacity and increase terminal prices [1][2] - The company has a significant exposure to the U.S. market, with an estimated risk exposure of approximately $1 billion, and is actively working on capacity transfer and global layout to mitigate tariff impacts [3] - The company is recognized as a leading exporter of tools from China, focusing on product innovation and global operations, which positions it well for long-term market share growth [4] Summary by Sections Trade Relations and Tariff Changes - The recent U.S.-China trade talks resulted in a substantial reduction in tariff levels from 125% to 34%, with a temporary pause on some tariffs [2] - The effective tax rate for tool exports from China to the U.S. has decreased to approximately 55% during the 90-day grace period [2] Capacity Expansion and Pricing Strategy - The company has accelerated the establishment of overseas production capacity, particularly in Southeast Asia, to counter tariff impacts, with 23 production bases globally by 2024 [3] - The company has begun to increase terminal prices to pass on tariff pressures, starting in Q2 2025 [3] Market Position and Financial Projections - The company aims to enhance its market share in the global tool market, with projected global market shares of 6.1% for hand tools and 2.1% for tools overall by 2024 [4] - Financial forecasts indicate a net profit of 2.635 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 11.9X [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent commitment from both China and the U.S. to take measures by May 14, 2025, to modify or cancel tariffs and non-tariff countermeasures has eased concerns over escalating trade tensions, leading to a slight rebound in aluminum prices due to improved demand expectations [1] Industry Summary - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises increased by 0.3 percentage points week-on-week to 61.9%, with a mixed performance across different sectors [1] - The operating rate for aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 67.2%, attributed to a lack of new orders [1] - The operating rate for aluminum wire and cable increased by 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%, driven by the commencement of power transmission and transformation orders and the execution of previous orders [1] - The operating rate for national profiles slightly decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 57.5%, with some enterprises reporting a minor decline in operations [1] - Some photovoltaic sample enterprises maintained high operating rates, while others reported a decline in photovoltaic output to address weakening future demand [1] - Construction material enterprises reported weak order growth, focusing on maintaining current production levels [1] Inventory and Price Outlook - As of May 12, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 601,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous Thursday and a decrease of 35,000 tons from the previous Tuesday [1] - It is expected that domestic aluminum ingot inventory may break below the 600,000-ton mark this week [1] - Short-term macroeconomic improvements are expected to support prices, but there remains pressure above key price levels, with expectations of price fluctuations within a range as consumption enters a low season and inventory pressures accumulate [1] - The industry outlook suggests a focus on macroeconomic sentiment and downstream operating rates in the short term, with attention to potential risks from macro expectations, geopolitical developments, mining recovery, and consumption release [1]

Core Insights - The logic behind the steepening of the government bond yield curve may change following the recent Sino-US Geneva joint statement, suggesting that short-term adjustments could further open up long-term bond betting opportunities. Investors are advised to remain patient and focus on mid-to-short duration bonds during this phase [1][2][17]. Understanding the Sino-US Joint Statement - On May 12, the Ministry of Commerce released the Sino-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement, which indicates a significant reduction in tariffs beyond market expectations. The US will split its 34% reciprocal tariff into two parts, maintaining a 10% baseline tariff while suspending the remaining 24% for 90 days. This results in a substantial decrease from the peak tariff rate of 145% during previous negotiations [1][9][10]. - The establishment of a bilateral consultation mechanism is aimed at facilitating ongoing discussions regarding economic and trade relations, which could help manage trade friction and pave the way for further tariff reductions [10][11]. Changes in Bond Yield Curve Logic - The overall direction of the steepening of the bond yield curve remains unchanged, but the internal logic may experience some shifts. Following the central bank's "double reduction" policy, short-term interest rates have significantly decreased, positively impacting the short-term bond market [2][15][17]. - For long-term bonds, the easing of trade tensions may shift market sentiment from profit-taking to increased risk appetite, as evidenced by a 6.25 basis point rise in the 30-year bond yield to 1.905% on May 12 [2][16][17]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to maintain a concentrated position in mid-to-short duration bonds during this adjustment period, utilizing a "reverse triangle" strategy for building positions [2][17].