Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of the zodiac water from Nongfu Spring highlights the market's fascination with scarcity, driving both demand and speculative trading [2][20]. Group 1: Product Overview - Nongfu Spring's zodiac water series began in 2016 with the "Monkey Year" bottle, and has since released a new design annually, culminating in 11 editions by 2026 [2]. - The water source is from Changbai Mountain's Moyan Spring, and the bottle design took three years to develop, with the company maintaining a policy of "giving away, not selling" [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - A small market has emerged on second-hand platforms and social e-commerce, with prices varying significantly based on the year and rarity of the bottles [4]. - For instance, the newly released "Horse Year" set is priced around 35 yuan, while the "Monkey Year" set can fetch between 300 to 800 yuan due to its limited availability [5]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Various participants in the market include collectors, resellers, and gift-givers, with motivations ranging from personal enjoyment to financial speculation [12][13]. - Some consumers view collecting as a challenge or a way to achieve a sense of accomplishment, while others hope for future appreciation in value [18][20]. Group 4: Psychological Factors - The strategy of "only giving away" creates a sense of scarcity, enhancing the desire for ownership of limited-edition items [18]. - The connection between zodiac culture and personal identity fosters emotional resonance, making the bottles appealing as gifts [18]. Group 5: Speculative Trends - The rising prices of earlier editions in the second-hand market stimulate a "low investment, high return" mentality among collectors [20]. - However, there are risks associated with market overheating, including potential changes in brand strategy or shifts in consumer interest that could lead to price volatility [20].