人口老龄化的财政影响

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安道尔老龄化的财政影响:养老金和医疗保健系统改革(英)2025
IMF· 2025-05-19 10:30
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Andorra is experiencing one of the fastest aging populations in Europe, with significant fiscal implications for its pension and healthcare systems. Without reforms, public expenditures in these areas are projected to rise significantly by 2050, necessitating comprehensive reforms and proactive immigration policies to maintain macroeconomic stability [6][9][54]. Summary by Sections A. Population Trends in Andorra - Andorra's population is aging rapidly, with life expectancy reaching 84.6 years in 2023 and a fertility rate declining from 1.41 births per woman in 2010 to 0.79 in 2023. The share of the population aged 65 and older is projected to increase from 14 percent in 2020 to 44 percent by 2070, while the total population is expected to shrink by 13 percent [11][16][20]. B. Impact on the Pension System - The pension system operates on a pay-as-you-go basis, with the most recent reform setting the retirement age at 65. The pension fund is projected to run a deficit by 2027, with the reserve fund expected to be depleted by 2043 under a no-policy-change scenario. Pension expenditures are projected to rise from 4.7 percent of GDP in 2022 to about 11.3 percent by 2050 [24][29][31]. C. Impact on the Healthcare System - Andorra's healthcare system is comprehensive and primarily funded through mandatory contributions. Public healthcare expenditures are projected to increase from 5.6 percent of GDP in 2022 to between 7.6 and 7.8 percent by 2050 due to the aging population. The share of the population aged 80 and above is expected to rise significantly, leading to higher healthcare costs [33][42][49]. D. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations - The report emphasizes the urgent need for pension and healthcare reforms to address the fiscal impact of aging. Recommendations include adjusting pension system parameters, linking retirement age to life expectancy, and improving healthcare service efficiency. Active migration policies are also suggested to help maintain the working-age population [54][55][58][60].