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关节置换方兴未艾,翻修存在刚性需求
Changjiang Securities· 2025-04-09 13:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the healthcare equipment industry [10]. Core Insights - The first round of national procurement for artificial joints has ended, leading to a moderate drop in prices and a stabilization in the initial replacement market. The average price for selected hip joint products decreased from 35,000 yuan to 7,000 yuan, and knee joint products from 32,000 yuan to 5,000 yuan, reflecting an average price drop of 82% [7][53]. - The lifespan of artificial joints is estimated to be 15-20 years, creating a rigid clinical demand for revision surgeries due to aseptic loosening, which is the most common cause for revisions [8][25]. - The peak period for revision surgeries in China is expected to begin in 2027, driven by increased penetration of initial replacement surgeries and the release of revision demand, indicating a rapid growth phase for the domestic joint replacement market [4][47]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The domestic joint replacement market is experiencing rapid growth, with the number of orthopedic hospitals increasing from 603 in 2016 to 662 in 2021, and the number of practicing orthopedic doctors rising from 10,316 to 15,535 during the same period, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 8.53% [9][45]. - In 2019, approximately 952,000 joint replacement surgeries were performed in China, with a penetration rate of about 0.44%, compared to 2.15% in the United States [9][46]. Revision Demand - The report estimates that by 2025, the number of joint replacement surgeries will reach approximately 1.1 million, with a market size of 9.3 billion yuan, and by 2031, it will grow to about 3.3 million surgeries and a market size of 27.5 billion yuan, with revision surgeries accounting for 34% of the revenue [47]. Technological Advancements - The application of 3D printing technology in joint replacement is expected to enhance surgical precision and allow for personalized prosthetics, improving clinical outcomes [41][44]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that domestic leading manufacturers have significantly increased their market share post-procurement, with companies like Aikang Medical increasing their market share from 9.2% in 2019 to 15.0% in 2024 [7][53].