价值成长性
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【兴证非银&金融科技】新华保险深度报告:兼具价值成长性与业绩高弹性的纯寿险标的
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-29 15:07
Core Viewpoint - The company is positioned for high-quality development through channel transformation and asset optimization, leading to a significant enhancement in profitability and operational quality, which drives a comprehensive revaluation of its value [1] Group 1: Performance and Growth - The company has a high operational leverage of 21.3 times as of mid-2025, compared to 9-13 times for listed peers, indicating strong performance elasticity [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 201% year-on-year to 26.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a 33.5% year-on-year growth to 14.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1] - The company’s new business value (NBV) has shown robust growth, with increases of 65.1%, 106.8%, and 58.4% year-on-year for 2023 and the first half of 2025, maintaining a leading position among peers [2] Group 2: Channel and Product Optimization - The company has transitioned its agent channel from a "mass strategy" to a "professional elite" model, reducing the number of agents from 606,000 in 2020 to 136,000 by 2025, while increasing monthly per capita productivity from 2,617 yuan to 16,700 yuan [2] - The silver insurance channel has become a new growth driver, with the new business value rate improving by 3 percentage points compared to the end of 2024, reaching 52.8% of total new business value [2] Group 3: Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy - As of mid-2025, the total investment assets have increased to 1.71 trillion yuan, a 5.1% growth from the beginning of the year, with a significant shift in asset allocation towards bonds and equities [3] - The company has increased its bond allocation from 42.7% to 50.6% and equity allocation from 7.9% to 11.6% from the end of 2020 to mid-2025, enhancing its investment performance elasticity [3] - The annualized total investment return rate is 5.9% as of mid-2025, leading among listed peers, reflecting strong equity allocation and market timing capabilities [3] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to exhibit high performance elasticity in the short term, particularly in a bullish equity market, with projected net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 estimated between 29.99 billion and 34.12 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [4] - The new management has initiated a comprehensive strategic overhaul, enhancing operational vitality and driving robust internal growth momentum, with a focus on shareholder returns and stable dividend rates [4]