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中国银河证券:社融信贷增长超预期 企业融资需求改善
智通财经网· 2025-07-16 01:42
Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates a significant increase in social financing (社融) in June, with new social financing amounting to 4.2 trillion yuan, which is 900.8 billion yuan more than the same period last year, reflecting a continued low base effect and improved liquidity in the financial system [1] Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Growth - In June, new social financing reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan; as of the end of June, the stock of social financing grew by 8.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.2 percentage points [1] - The increase in credit exceeded expectations, with RMB loans rising by 2.36 trillion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 171 billion yuan, contributing positively to social financing growth [2] - The issuance of government bonds in June was approximately 2.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 818 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, continuing to be a major source of social financing growth [2] Group 2: Demand Recovery in Credit - By the end of June, the balance of RMB loans from financial institutions grew by 7.1% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month; new RMB loans in June amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110 billion yuan [3] - Household loans increased by 597.6 billion yuan, with short-term loans rising by 262.1 billion yuan, driven by consumption demand during promotional events [3] - Corporate loans increased by 1.77 trillion yuan, with short-term loans rising significantly, indicating a recovery in credit demand from the corporate sector [3] Group 3: Monetary Aggregates and Liquidity - In June, M1 and M2 growth rates were 4.6% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, with month-on-month increases of 2.3 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points, indicating improved liquidity [4] - The difference between M1 and M2 narrowed to -3.7%, reflecting a significant increase in the activation of funds [4] - Financial institutions' RMB deposits increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth rate improvement of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a positive trend in deposit growth [4]