伊核危机

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和美国唱反调?欧洲官员称伊朗铀库存完好无损,原油走高
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-26 17:41
Core Viewpoint - The assessment of the impact of the recent U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear capabilities differs significantly between European officials and the Trump administration, with Europe indicating that Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains largely intact [1][3][5]. Group 1: Intelligence Assessment - Preliminary intelligence provided to European governments suggests that Iran's stockpile of high-enriched uranium, totaling 408 kilograms, was not concentrated at the Fordow facility during the U.S. attack, but rather dispersed across multiple locations [1][3]. - The U.S. Defense Secretary stated that there is no known intelligence indicating that Iran has moved its enriched uranium, which contrasts with the European intelligence assessment [3][6]. - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not confirmed the location of any transferred enriched uranium and has not conducted on-site evaluations of the damage [4][10]. Group 2: Damage Assessment - The U.S. used bunker-buster bombs to target the Fordow and Natanz facilities, with reports indicating that while the Fordow facility suffered significant damage, it was not completely destroyed [6][9]. - Satellite imagery revealed that the entrances to the Fordow facility were blocked, and there were signs of damage consistent with the use of precision-guided munitions [9]. - A confidential U.S. intelligence report indicated that the military action only delayed Iran's nuclear program by a few months, with the potential for Iran to restart its nuclear activities within one to two months [6][9]. Group 3: Diplomatic Implications - The differing assessments of the damage to Iran's nuclear capabilities complicate the diplomatic resolution of the international nuclear crisis [5][13]. - The Trump administration has not provided clear intelligence to European nations regarding Iran's remaining nuclear capabilities post-attack, leading to uncertainty in diplomatic strategies [13]. - Trump indicated that the U.S. would engage in talks with Iran regarding a potential nuclear agreement, but he expressed skepticism about the necessity of such an agreement, maintaining that the U.S. has successfully diminished Iran's nuclear capabilities [13].