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聚焦ETF市场 | 看空但做多:2025年ETF投资者的表现
彭博Bloomberg· 2025-05-06 11:11
Core Viewpoint - Despite a challenging market environment and the impact of new U.S. tariff policies, most ETF investors are expected to continue dollar-cost averaging into popular ETFs, even as their outlook becomes increasingly bearish. Some investors are hedging by increasing their allocations to gold or cash ETFs [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Investment Trends - ETF investors tend to hold their positions long-term, continuing to invest in low-cost beta funds like VOO and IVV, which accounted for 20% of the $300 billion inflow into U.S. listed ETFs this year [3]. - The increase in inflows to cash and gold ETFs indicates that investors are seeking some buffer against market volatility, suggesting a contradictory behavior of buying equities while hedging [3][6]. - Historical patterns show that ETF investors have previously bought during downturns, indicating a potential need for sustained market declines of 6-9 months to deter significant buying activity [6]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Performance - In the first quarter, U.S. equity ETFs saw record inflows of $140 billion, with 80% of this capital flowing into funds heavily invested in U.S. equities [9]. - Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) led the inflow rankings, attracting $34 billion, $21.4 billion, and $8.6 billion respectively [9]. - Conversely, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) experienced an outflow of $22.6 billion, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [9]. Group 3: Gold and Cash ETFs - The inflow into gold ETFs has increased significantly, with $12.2 billion added in the first quarter, driven by a 19% rise in gold prices and a growing interest in safe-haven assets [10]. - The performance of gold ETFs has improved, with a nearly 50% return since the beginning of 2024, reflecting a shift in investor focus towards protective assets [10].