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如何看待近期土地市场“地王”频出的现象︱重阳问答
重阳投资· 2025-02-28 07:10
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in "land kings" in the real estate market is driven by a combination of policy changes, market supply and demand dynamics, and strategies adopted by real estate companies [1] Supply Side: Improved Land Quality and Policy Relaxation - Local governments are optimizing land supply structures to enhance market activity, focusing on core locations and low plot ratio land, such as in Shanghai and Beijing, which are attractive to developers due to their scarcity and high added value [2] - Cities like Nanjing and Chengdu are raising land prices by planning large luxury homes with lower plot ratios, while many regions have lifted new home price caps, allowing developers to achieve premiums through improved product quality [2] Demand Side: Release of Pent-Up Improvement Demand - Since 2017, price control policies have suppressed genuine improvement demand in core cities, leading to a decline in the quality of new homes delivered over the past six to seven years [3] - The relaxation of price controls has resulted in a concentrated release of improvement demand, providing developers focused on quality with a broader market space [3] Market Structure: Increasing Divergence in Land and Housing Markets - Since the fourth quarter of last year, high-premium land and "land kings" have been concentrated in a few core first- and second-tier cities, while third- and fourth-tier cities continue to see land transactions at base prices [4] - Developers view core city land as a "hard currency" to withstand economic downturns, creating a feedback loop of "limited supply + quality premium" [4] - The rapid improvement in new home quality in core cities has led to a divergence between new and second-hand housing markets, with high-quality new homes enjoying significant premiums while second-hand home prices remain weak [4]