1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The change in the bond market's "macro - narrative" is a reaction to the over - trading of the "consensus expectation", and the adjustment is a trading opportunity. The probability of long - term yield decline has not decreased substantially, and the odds have increased during the adjustment [3][10]. - The current situation is at the "first step", while the market has already traded the "second step" and "third step". The basis for the "macro - narrative" of large - category assets is not solid [3][11]. - There are significant differences in policy expectations among bonds, equities, and commodities. The bond market has weak expectations for macro - policies, the equity market has expectations, and the commodity market has the strongest expectations [3][13]. - The money market has no risk, and short - term bonds are in a reasonable valuation range. The money market will remain stable and loose overall, and the risk of money price fluctuations is small [4][15]. - Maintain the view that bond adjustment is a trading opportunity, and appropriately layout for the policy expectation game opportunity of the end - of - month meeting. After the adjustment, the bond market becomes a better layout opportunity, and there is an expectation gap in the pricing of policy expectations among large - category assets [4][17]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Macro - Narrative and Policy Expectation Differences - The bond market's "macro - narrative" has changed from trading the lagging impact of external shocks to worrying about the impact of hedging policies on prices and demand. This change is a reaction to the over - trading of the "consensus expectation" [10]. - The real economy is still maintaining its prosperity due to previous policy support and the "strong export" at the middle of the year. The bond market has already traded the marginal weakening of the third - quarter economy and the policy expectations of "anti - involution" and demand - side stimulus [3][11]. - The bond market has not significantly priced in policy stimulus expectations, the equity market has expectations for macro - policies, and the commodity market has the strongest expectations for macro - policies. There is an expectation gap that can be exploited in the end - of - month important meeting [13]. 3.2. Money Market and Short - Term Bond Situation - Although there were fluctuations in the money market in mid - July, mainly due to the tax period, the money market will remain stable and loose overall. The risk of money price fluctuations is small [4][15]. - The pricing center of 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit of national joint - stock banks is around 1.6%, and 1.7% is the trading ceiling for the second half of the year. There is net financing pressure in the third quarter, but the risk of price increase is small [4][15]. - The repair of the liability side of large - scale banks continues, which is supported by the deposit growth in June [4][15]. 3.3. Bond Market Investment Strategy - The previous bond market adjustment is a reaction to the over - trading of the "consensus expectation". After the adjustment, the distribution of chips is no longer concentrated, which is a good layout opportunity [4][17]. - There is an expectation gap in the pricing of policy expectations among large - category assets. After the disturbance of risk sentiment, one can play the expectation gap before the important meeting at the end of July [4][17].