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长端利率上行 债市或进入冷静期
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-08 07:28
Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced a rapid adjustment last week, alleviating concerns about prolonged high yields, but short-term volatility remains inevitable [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose to 2.20%, an increase of 8 basis points (BP), while the 30-year bond yield rose to 2.38%, up 4 BP [2] - The yields had previously reached historical lows of 2.08% and 2.29% for the 10-year and 30-year bonds, respectively, marking the lowest levels since 2003 and 2005 [2] - The average yield of medium to long-term pure bond funds was -0.0868%, with a median of -0.0867%, indicating a general decline in bond prices [4] Group 2: Fund Management Strategies - Fund managers have indicated a high duration allocation, reflecting a conservative strategy amidst the bond market's high yields [2] - Recommendations suggest that proprietary trading desks should gradually enter the market at higher levels, while asset management institutions should align their duration closely with market peers [3] - The analysis suggests maintaining existing positions in the bond market, as the adjustment space for long bond yields is expected to be limited [5] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The bond market's cautious sentiment is evident, with nearly 80% of medium to long-term bond funds reporting negative weekly returns [4] - The overall investment environment is characterized by a strong aversion to excessive speculation in interest rate bonds, emphasizing the need for disciplined investment practices [5]