美联储偏好的通胀指标，7月核心个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数年率录得2.9%，符合市场预期，但依然 高于美联储长期2%的目标。尽管如此，市场普遍预计美联储将在9月会议后下调基准利率，以应对就业 市场放缓以及来自政治层面的压力。然而，降息本身也存在推高通胀的风险。 长期来看，广泛的股市投资(如指数基金)通常具备较好的抗通胀能力，因为企业最终会将成本压力转嫁 至消费者，利润水平也会随之调整。但在短期内，通胀可能造成显著扰动。根据Hartford Funds的一项 研究，能源和部分房地产投资信托基金(REITs)往往在通胀周期中表现最佳。 智通财经APP获悉，Hartford研究员Duncan Lamont指出："能源股的收入天然与能源价格挂钩，而能源 是通胀指数的重要组成部分，因此能源股通常能在通胀上升时期表现强劲。股权类REITs同样可能缓解 通胀带来的冲击。"目前，能源与地产板块同时具备较高分红收益，例如规模110亿美元的Alerian MLP ETF收益率达7.8%，而规模640亿美元的Vanguard Real Estate ETF年化派息率为3.9%。 债券方面，通胀往往会侵蚀固定票息的购买力，但当前环 ...

截至7月末，我国债券市场托管余额190.4万亿元。其中，银行间市场托管余额168.4万亿元，交易所市场 托管余额22.0万亿元。分券种来看，国债托管余额37.6万亿元，地方政府债券托管余额52.5万亿元，金 融债券托管余额43.4万亿元，公司信用类债券托管余额34.0万亿元，信贷资产支持证券托管余额1.0万亿 元，同业存单托管余额20.7万亿元。商业银行柜台债券托管余额2092.8亿元。 本报北京8月29日电（记者徐佩玉）中国人民银行发布的最新数据显示，7月份，我国债券市场共发行各 类债券77536.2亿元，其中国债发行12226.5亿元，地方政府债券发行12134.9亿元，金融债券发行13905.5 亿元，公司信用类债券发行13496.8亿元，信贷资产支持证券发行329.3亿元，同业存单发行24743.6亿 元。 (责编：胡永秋、杨光宇) 关注公众号：人民网财经 在债券市场对外开放方面，截至7月末，境外机构在中国债券市场的托管余额4.0万亿元，占中国债券市 场托管余额的比重为2.1%。其中，境外机构在银行间债券市场的债券托管余额3.9万亿元；分券种看， 境外机构持有国债2.0万亿元、占比51.4%，同业存单 ...

Core Insights - In July, China's bond market issued a total of 77,536.2 billion yuan in various types of bonds [1] - As of the end of July, the custody balance of China's bond market reached 190.4 trillion yuan [1] Bond Issuance Breakdown - In July, the issuance of government bonds amounted to 12,226.5 billion yuan [1] - Local government bonds issued totaled 12,134.9 billion yuan [1] - Financial bonds issued were 13,905.5 billion yuan [1] - Corporate credit bonds issued reached 13,496.8 billion yuan [1] - Asset-backed securities issued were 329.3 billion yuan [1] - Negotiable certificates of deposit issued totaled 24,743.6 billion yuan [1] Foreign Participation - As of the end of July, the custody balance of foreign institutions in China's bond market was 4 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.1% of the total custody balance [1] - The custody balance of foreign institutions in the interbank bond market was 3.9 trillion yuan [1]

截至7月末，债券市场托管余额190.4万亿元。其中,银行间市场托管余额168.4万亿元，交易所市场托管 余额22.0万亿元。分券种来看，国债托管余额37.6万亿元，地方政府债券托管余额52.5万亿元，金融债 券托管余额43.4万亿元，公司信用类债券托管余额34.0万亿元，信贷资产支持证券托管余额1.0万亿元， 同业存单托管余额20.7万亿元。商业银行柜台债券托管余额2092.8亿元。 北京商报讯（记者 刘四红）8月29日，人民银行官网发布2025年7月份金融市场运行情况。数据显示，7 月份，债券市场共发行各类债券77536.2亿元。国债发行12226.5亿元，地方政府债券发行12134.9亿元， 金融债券发行13905.5亿元，公司信用类债券发行13496.8亿元，信贷资产支持证券发行329.3亿元，同业 存单发行24743.6亿元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current stock - bond state may be what the authorities desire, namely "a slow - bull in stocks and no continuous sharp decline in bonds." The monetary authorities maintain liquidity but avoid rapid policy rate cuts, using more structural tools and supporting the real estate market. This encourages the transfer of funds from real estate and bonds to equities, achieving a slow - bull in stocks and preventing continuous sharp declines in bonds and real estate to ensure financial stability [1][88]. - In September, the stock - bond state is likely to remain unchanged, and the headwind period for the bond market may not be over. The 10 - year Treasury yield has two pressure levels: 1.80% and 1.90%. Currently, it hovers around 1.78%. Short - term bond market operations may require patience, with more focus on band - trading during pullbacks. After two major macro - events in September (domestic military parade and Fed's decision on interest rate cuts), the bond market may enter a favorable period in late September and the fourth quarter [2][91]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Current Open Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Environment**: The economic fundamentals are still "weak." In July, CPI was flat year - on - year, with core CPI rising to 0.8%. PPI's year - on - year decline remained at 3.6%, but the month - on - month decline narrowed. Financial data showed a seasonal decline in social financing, a contraction in credit financing, and a negative increase in new RMB loans for the first time in 20 years. Some economic indicators were divided, and domestic economic recovery was restricted by multiple factors [7][8]. - **Policy Environment**: The Fed's dovish stance is conducive to the implementation of domestic aggregate monetary policy in the fourth quarter. The central bank mainly uses structural policies and guides funds through a two - step allocation: in asset allocation, it guides funds from bonds to stocks; in economic development, it focuses on consumption, infrastructure, and real estate in sequence. If three of the four conditions are met, the probability of a domestic central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is high, and currently, three conditions are gradually being met [24][27]. - **Bank Funding**: The bank funding situation has been relatively loose since July, with a slight reduction in net central bank money injection in July compared to June. As of August 14, the central bank's money withdrawal was 43,530 billion yuan, and the injection was 17,265 billion yuan. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate remained stable at 1.40%, and market interest rates such as DR007 and FR007 showed a downward trend [28][31]. - **Corporate Profit and Financing Environment**: From January to July 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size continued to decline year - on - year, but the decline narrowed. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, below the boom - bust line. In July, corporate short - term and long - term loans decreased, and only bill financing increased year - on - year. Overall, industrial profits are still suppressed by price factors, and the financing structure is tilting towards bonds [37]. 3.2 Interest Rate Market Analysis - **Primary Market**: In July, the total issuance of interest - rate bonds was 3.2 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 1.53 trillion yuan. As of August 14, the total issuance was 1.9 trillion yuan. The issuance interest rates of four types of interest - rate bonds (Treasury bonds, local government bonds, policy - bank bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit) have shown a trend of convergence since January 2025, with the Treasury bond rate rising by more than 15BP [43]. - **Secondary Market**: From July to August 2025, the short - end interest rates of Treasury bonds remained stable, while the medium - and long - end rates generally increased, making the yield curve steeper. In July, the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 1.65% to 1.70%, and in August, it fluctuated between 1.70% - 1.79%. The trend of China Development Bank bonds was different from that of Treasury bonds, and the spread between them widened [48][53]. 3.3 Credit Market Analysis - **Primary Market**: In July, the net financing of credit bonds was strong, with a net financing of 3,519 billion yuan. As of August 14, the issuance scale was 6,364.05 billion yuan, and the repayment amount increased to 8,742 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance interest rate of credit bonds in July was 1.91%, down 30BP year - on - year [67]. - **Secondary Market**: As of August 14, the yields of AAA - rated corporate bonds of various maturities declined, with the long - end decline being greater. Credit spreads continued to converge, and the spreads between AA and AAA - rated corporate bonds also narrowed [73]. - **Real Estate Bonds**: In July, the net financing of real estate bonds turned positive, with a net financing of 44 billion yuan. As of August 14, the net financing was negative. The transaction volume of commercial housing has been at a low level in the past five years, and as of August 9, the average weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 13.31% year - on - year [78][81]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In July 2025, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 423 billion yuan, remaining at a historical low. This reflects the pressure on the financing environment of urban investment platforms and the acceleration of their transformation process [85]. 3.4 September Bond Market Strategy - The current stock - bond state is expected to continue in September. The bond market may still face headwinds, with 1.80% and 1.90% as two pressure levels for the 10 - year Treasury yield. Short - term bond market operations should focus on band - trading during pullbacks, and the bond market may improve after two major macro - events in September [2][91].

人民财讯8月29日电，央行发布2025年7月份金融市场运行情况，7月份，债券市场共发行各类债券 77536.2亿元。国债发行12226.5亿元，地方政府债券发行12134.9亿元，金融债券发行13905.5亿元，公司 信用类债券发行13496.8亿元，信贷资产支持证券发行329.3亿元，同业存单发行24743.6亿元。 截至7月末，债券市场托管余额190.4万亿元。其中,银行间市场托管余额168.4万亿元，交易所市场托管 余额22.0万亿元。分券种来看，国债托管余额37.6万亿元，地方政府债券托管余额52.5万亿元，金融债 券托管余额43.4万亿元，公司信用类债券托管余额34.0万亿元，信贷资产支持证券托管余额1.0万亿元， 同业存单托管余额20.7万亿元。商业银行柜台债券托管余额2092.8亿元。 ...

截至 8 月 22 日，近一个月内中短端二永债重仓策略有一定防御属性。具体来看，近四周城投短端下沉、商金债子弹 型及银行永续债下沉策略组合的累计超额收益分别达到 13.3bp、7.2bp、6.6bp。近期城投重仓策略整体弱于二永重仓 策略，城投久期、哑铃型组合累计收益较基准偏离分别下滑至-10bp、-30bp 附近，而二永债子弹型、下沉策略反而有 5bp 左右的超额收益。 品种久期跟踪 票息资产成交久期全面缩短。截至 8 月 24 日，城投债、产业债成交期限分别加权于 2.01 年、2.60 年，商业银行债 中，二级资本债、银行永续债以及一般商金债加权平均成交期限分别为 4.30 年、3.77 年、2.75 年，其中银行永续债 处于较低历史水平；从其余金融债来看，证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司债、租赁公司债久期分别为 1.55 年、 2.18 年、3.29 年、1.34 年，其余金融债久期均有小幅拉长，其中证券公司债、证券次级债位于较低历史分位。 票息资产热度图谱 截至 2025 年 8 月 25 日，存量信用债中，民企产业债和地产债估值收益率及利差整体高于其他品种。与上周相比，非 金融非地产类产业债收益率 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the launch of the pilot green foreign - debt business in 16 provinces and cities, there may be a window period for the issuance of urban investment overseas bonds. In 2025, the issuance of urban investment dim - sum bonds decreased significantly, while the issuance of US - dollar bonds increased slightly. The net financing of overseas bonds varies by region, and some regions face large future maturity scales. For overseas bonds maturing before 2027, investors can consider moderately lowering the regional selection criteria, and for high - quality credit entities, they can consider moderately extending the bond duration. Additionally, investors should focus on bond liquidity and credit enhancement [3][10][37]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Issuance Situation - **Dim - sum Bonds**: In 2025, the issuance volume of dim - sum bonds decreased significantly. From January to August, only about 70 billion yuan was issued, much lower than the same period in 2023 and 2024. Henan had a relatively large increase in issuance this year, and the issuers were mainly medium - to high - rated entities. The issuance term was mainly 2 - 3 years, and the issuance volume in the 6% - 7% coupon rate range increased significantly, with the overall issuance cost rising [11][12][15]. - **US - dollar Bonds**: In 2025, Fujian had a relatively large increase in issuance. AA+ and AAA entities were the main issuers, indicating that investors had higher requirements for the qualifications of the issuer or guarantor. The issuance term was also mainly 2 - 3 years, and the issuance cost decreased, as the issuance volume in the 4% - 5% coupon rate range increased this year, while that in the 5% - 7% range decreased year - on - year [19][21][22]. 3.2 Maturity Situation - **Net Financing**: The net financing of urban investment overseas bonds varies by region. From January to July 2025, Shandong, Jiangsu and other provinces had relatively large net financing, while Zhejiang had a large net repayment. This difference may be the result of different regions balancing short - term debt - servicing pressure and medium - to long - term debt resolution tasks [25][28]. - **Future Maturity**: Shandong, Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Jiangsu have relatively large future maturity scales of urban investment overseas bonds. For dim - sum bonds, after September 2025, the maturity debt is mainly concentrated in November and December, and from 2026 onwards, it is concentrated in 2026 - 2027. For US - dollar bonds, after September 2025, the maturity debt is evenly distributed in the remaining months, and from 2026 onwards, it is concentrated in 2026 - 2028 [29][32]. 3.3 Future Outlook - **Regional and Duration Strategy**: For overseas bonds maturing before 2027, investors can moderately lower the regional selection criteria; for high - quality credit entities, they can moderately extend the bond duration. This is due to the successful attempt of domestic bond replacement of overseas bonds in Kunming and the ongoing attempt in Chongqing, the "asset shortage" faced by overseas investors, and the expected easing of overseas liquidity with the Fed's expected interest - rate cuts [37]. - **Focus on Liquidity and Credit Enhancement**: Investors with high safety requirements should choose bonds with better liquidity. In terms of credit enhancement, a filing letter of credit has the highest guarantee effectiveness, followed by parent - company guarantee and then a keep - well agreement. Bonds guaranteed by AAA entities can strike a balance between safety and return. For investors seeking higher returns, they can further lower the credit rating and administrative level of the guaranteeing entity [40][41].

研究中心宏观团队 2025/08/29 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/08/28 | 4.205 | 4.699 | 3.477 | 2.693 | 3.536 | 3.294 | 0.263 | 3.369 | | 最新变化 | -0.030 | -0.036 | -0.040 | -0.006 | -0.036 | -0.025 | 0.016 | -0.035 | | 一周变化 | -0.124 | -0.029 | 0.016 | -0.063 | -0.044 | -0.049 | -0.040 | -0.053 | | 一月变化 | -0.171 | 0.131 | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.029 | 0.021 | -0.068 | 0.021 | | 一年变 ...

每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，当地时间8月28日，欧债收益率普遍下行，英国10年期国债收益率下行3.5个基点报 4.698%，法国10年期国债收益率下行4.1个基点报3.475%，德国10年期国债收益率下行0.7个基点报 2.691%，意大利10年期国债收益率下行3.6个基点报3.535%，西班牙10年期国债收益率下行2.5个基点报 3.292%。 ...