他提炼了四种用来判断哪些公司会蓬勃发展的可靠特质——商业模式、假设、战略和管理（简称BASM）。他认为，BASM对于挑选蓝筹股和成长股都很 重要，对于挑选成长股更为重要。此外，他还提出七步走法则来教读者管理自己的投资组合。 本文摘录自书籍第三章《持有与耐心，创造财富之道》部分内容（内容有删减），我们经授权转载。 文丨弗雷德里克·R.科布里克 编辑丨林伟萍 编者按 弗雷德里克·R.科布里克（Frederick R. Kobrick）是美国著名的成长股基金经理，有30多年的基金管理经验。他管理的"道富研究资本基金"被《今日美国》 评为 15年中最优秀的5只基金之一；管理的"资本增值基金"被《金钱》杂志列入"10年六大基金"之一。 著名投资家彼得•林奇称赞弗雷德里克"是我见过的最棒的选股专家之一！"彼得林奇认为，弗雷德里克的新书《大钱——如何选择成长股》中给投资 人，"展示了如何简单发现牛股，为投资者开辟了一片新天地。" 在本书中，弗雷德里克提出，找到卓越公司并耐心地长期持有其股票，将获得巨大的财富！要实现目标涉及两个非常关键的问题：第一，如何选股，也就 是如何找到最优秀的公司；第二，如何持股，也就是如何才能真正做 ...

Core Investment Philosophy - The core investment philosophy of Frederick R. Kobrick emphasizes long-term holding of exceptional companies, as illustrated by the story of Anne Johnson discovering her father's investments in Walmart, Home Depot, and Microsoft, which grew to over $2.8 million from an initial investment of $3,000 [4][5]. Identifying Potential Growth Companies - Kobrick argues that investors often chase flashy stories while overlooking true opportunities hidden in the ordinary, highlighting the example of Starbucks, which turned a $10,000 investment in 1975 into over $15 million [6][7]. Business Model Analysis - The focus should be on the business model rather than just the product, with Kobrick using McDonald's as a prime example of a successful business model that ensures consistency across locations [8][9]. Leadership Evaluation - Exceptional companies are often led by outstanding leaders, and Kobrick places significant importance on assessing management quality, as it can differentiate between mediocre investments and extraordinary returns [10][11]. Strategic Vision and Assumptions - Investors must cultivate the ability to foresee a company's strategic trajectory over the long term, as demonstrated by Kodak's failure due to incorrect assumptions about its market position [13][14]. Long-Term Holding Strategy - The key to wealth creation lies in identifying and holding onto companies with replicable success models, as illustrated by the contrasting fates of technology companies over the past decades [18][19]. Market Volatility and Understanding - Market volatility is not the real risk; rather, the true risk stems from a lack of understanding of the invested companies, as evidenced by the contrasting responses to Apple's stock during the 2008 financial crisis [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The company is conducting a transaction to acquire all shares of Hangzhou Bicheng Digital Technology Co., Ltd. and has engaged Shanghai Zhonghua Asset Appraisal Co., Ltd. as the evaluation agency to assess the market value of the target assets [1][2]. Group 1: Independence and Reasonableness of the Evaluation - The evaluation agency, Shanghai Zhonghua, has no related party relationships with the company or the transaction counterpart, ensuring its independence [1]. - The assumptions made in the evaluation report comply with national laws and regulations, and are reasonable according to market practices and asset appraisal standards [1][2]. Group 2: Evaluation Methodology and Purpose - The purpose of the evaluation is to determine the market value of the target assets as of the evaluation benchmark date, providing a reference for the transaction [2]. - The evaluation methods used are appropriate, and the conclusions drawn are reasonable, reflecting the actual situation of the evaluated assets [2]. Group 3: Fairness of the Transaction Price - The transaction price will be based on the evaluation report, adjusted for cash dividends during the transition period, ensuring fairness and reasonableness without harming the interests of the company and minority shareholders [2].

Group 1: Historical Consumption Trends in the U.S. - From 1960 to 1990, the Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) effectively explained consumer behavior, but its validity diminished post-2000 due to financial innovations and external shocks[2] - The average consumption propensity in the U.S. has fluctuated between 85% and 96%, indicating a consumption-driven economy[27] - The financial crisis of 2008 led to a significant drop in consumption propensity, which only began to recover in 2013 but remained below pre-crisis levels[30] Group 2: Factors Influencing Consumption - Tax cuts and financial innovations have historically boosted U.S. consumer propensity, suggesting similar strategies could benefit China amid its aging population[2] - The wealth effect, particularly from real estate, has a dual impact on consumption, with rising home values increasing spending capacity while high mortgage burdens suppress it[61] - Rising rental costs have increased the share of disposable income spent on housing, from under 22% in 2001 to nearly 30% in 2023, further constraining consumer spending[64] Group 3: Policy Implications - U.S. consumption policies, including tax reductions and unemployment benefits, have been crucial in stimulating economic growth during downturns[36] - The expansion of social security and healthcare spending has a positive correlation with consumption propensity, although recent stagnation in these areas may limit future growth[69] - The shift in monetary policy frameworks has led to a greater reliance on current income rather than long-term expectations, affecting consumer behavior[54]

Group 1 - The acquisition plan of Three Squirrels to acquire Love Snacks has been terminated after 8 months, with a deal value of 200 million yuan [1] - The announcement indicated that the parties could not reach an agreement on core terms, leading to the decision to terminate the acquisition [1][2] - Following the termination, Three Squirrels signed a deep strategic cooperation agreement with Snack Selection [1] Group 2 - The termination of acquisitions is common in the A-share market, often due to disagreements on terms or conditions [2][3] - The decision to terminate the acquisition can be seen as a responsible choice for both parties, allowing them to seek better opportunities [4][20] Group 3 - For Love Snacks, being acquired could have been a favorable outcome given the competitive industry landscape, providing opportunities for shareholders [7] - For Three Squirrels, the termination is also a "optimal solution," potentially due to disagreements on valuation, market changes, or strategic shifts [8][19] - Love Snacks' valuation has been a point of contention, with significant disagreements reported during negotiations [9][12] Group 4 - The snack industry is entering a new phase of operational growth, moving beyond the initial rapid expansion and consolidation [21][22] - The focus is shifting towards operational efficiency and profitability, as seen in other industries like tea beverages [25][27] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with leading brands solidifying their positions while second-tier brands may face challenges [27][30] Group 5 - The future growth of the snack industry will depend on effectively managing supply chains and understanding consumer demographics [30][33] - Successful businesses in the snack sector will need to prioritize high-quality products and customer retention strategies to thrive in a saturated market [33][34]

Group 1 - The article discusses the normalization of shocking news in the current world, highlighting a sense of desensitization to events that would have previously caused outrage [1][4][7] - It mentions the recent military actions taken by the U.S. against Iran, specifically Trump's announcement of bombings on Iranian nuclear facilities, which has drawn global attention [2][3] - The piece reflects on the changing nature of human behavior and societal norms, suggesting that there was once a time when people were more cautious and adhered to certain rules, which has since diminished [6][8][9] Group 2 - The author presents a hypothetical scenario where the world may have ended three years ago, and humanity is now living in a digital simulation or alternate reality, raising questions about identity and existence [10][11][21] - The narrative includes a surreal dream about a virus causing collective amnesia, leading to a bleak existence where people struggle to remember their identities and lives [14][15][16] - It concludes with a philosophical reflection on the nature of reality and the importance of maintaining a sense of self amidst chaos, referencing the thoughts of Su Dongpo on the transient nature of life [18][19][20]

空头吉姆·查诺斯（Jim Chanos）：市场从来就不相信会发生最糟糕的关税假设场景。 ...

（总统特朗普所支持的）税收草案并不会推高赤字。 白宫新闻秘书Leavitt：税收立法草案中，美国国会预算管理办公室（CBO）所提供的财政预期是一种恶 劣的假设。 CBO所给预测给出了空洞的（美国经济）增长假设。 ...

导语："投资大家谈"是点拾投资的公益内容栏目，希望通过每周日不定期的推送，让更多人看到 基金经理对投资和市场的思考。"投资大家谈"栏目内容以公益类的分享为主，不带有基金产品的 代码和信息，也必须来自基金经理的内容创作。 以下文章来源于市值女魔头V老板 ，作者市值女魔头 市值女魔头V老板 . V总港股全球策略，左手pbroe，右手AI科技。驾驭从传统到新锐，古典底蕴到时代肩膀上做投资。资 本界脑洞创意，被称为市值女魔头，罕见的跨一二级资本市场买方市值洞察。杀伐果断，观点超前，战 斗值满分，关注就知道… 同样是在《证券分析》一书中，他表示，面对市场巨大的诱惑，(投资者)如果对很多问题一知半 解，是一件很危险的事情，A little knowledge is a dangerous thing。费雪先生，则更加直言不 讳。 在《如何选择成长股》一书开篇不久，他就直言，股市具有一种欺骗人的气质。巴菲特先生多年 来一直在尖锐批评华尔街一些不正确的理念，就是对格雷厄姆和费雪两位先生所说过的话最好的 印证。 他认为，面临巨大的利益诱惑，华尔街时不时地创造出一些理论话术，误导市场。 在他的各种批评之言论中，其中以对EMH（有 ...

英国央行副行长Clare Lombardelli：在决策过程中，那些假设场景发挥有价值的作用。 ...