Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Airport has officially introduced a new duty-free agreement with China Duty Free Group and Dufry, which is expected to enhance the competitiveness of its duty-free business and stabilize non-aeronautical revenue growth starting from 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: New Duty-Free Agreement - The new duty-free agreement features a revenue model of "fixed rent + sales commission + 49% joint venture dividends," which is anticipated to motivate operators and improve the long-term competitiveness of the duty-free business [1][2]. - Dufry has obtained the duty-free operating rights for the international areas of Terminal 1 and Satellite Hall S1 at Pudong Airport, while China Duty Free Group has secured rights for Terminal 2 and Satellite Hall S2, as well as the corresponding rights at Hongqiao Airport [1]. Group 2: Financial Projections - The fixed fee for the new agreement is estimated to be approximately 760 million yuan for the year 2026, with potential fluctuations of ±20% based on international and regional passenger traffic changes compared to 2024 [2]. - The new commission rates for sales at Pudong and Hongqiao airports range from 8% to 24% and 8% to 22%, respectively, which is a decrease from the previous rates of 18% to 36% [2]. - Under the new model, the airport's total duty-free revenue is projected to reach approximately 1.5 billion yuan, an increase of 290 million yuan and 250 million yuan compared to 2024 and 2025, respectively [2]. Group 3: Investment and Operational Strategy - The company plans to invest up to 98 million yuan to establish two joint venture companies with Dufry and China Duty Free Group, holding a 49% stake in each [3]. - Based on a projected annual revenue of 7.5 billion yuan and a net profit margin of approximately 5%, the company could achieve an investment return of about 180 million yuan, significantly higher than the previous investment returns from its partnership with Japan Duty Free [3]. - The introduction of differentiated operators and a new incentive mechanism is expected to enhance operational quality and competitiveness in the duty-free sector, leading to sustainable and elastic growth in non-aeronautical revenue for the airport [3]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing recovery of international travel demand and the implementation of the new duty-free agreement are expected to significantly enhance the company's non-aeronautical revenue elasticity [4]. - The projected net profits for the company are estimated to be 2.1 billion yuan, 2.6 billion yuan, and 2.9 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 39, 32, and 28 times [4]. - Shanghai Airport's strategic location as a key international hub is expected to unlock commercial potential and drive high-quality growth in non-aeronautical business, contributing to sustained profitability [4].