Group 1 - The company aims to develop a super international hub, with potential primarily in international passenger flow [2] - With the recovery of passenger traffic, the company has introduced a batch of brand direct stores and airport hotels, which will drive future revenue growth [2] - The advertising and duty-free segments have potential for improvement, with recent surveys indicating that advertising has already shown signs of recovery in Q3 [2][3] Group 2 - The duty-free segment is highlighted as a key area, with expectations for increased competition among operators, which could lead to significant changes [2] - The current minimum guarantee does not reflect the commercial value of Pudong, and a more reasonable guarantee could enhance the motivation of duty-free operators [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a focus on the performance of its aviation and non-aviation businesses [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 6.353 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.044 billion yuan, up 28.14% [1]. - For 2Q25, revenue reached 3.181 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.84% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.28%. The net profit for the quarter was 525 million yuan, showing a year-on-year rise of 22.39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.19% [1]. - The aviation business generated revenue of 2.916 billion yuan in 1H25, marking an 8.35% increase year-on-year, driven by the recovery in airport traffic [1]. - Non-aviation business revenue grew by only 2% year-on-year in 1H24, with commercial catering and logistics services increasing by 2% and 1%, respectively [1]. Cost and Investment - Operating costs and expenses increased slightly by 1% in 1H25, with labor, amortization, and maintenance costs remaining stable compared to the previous year, indicating operational leverage [2]. - Investment income improved significantly, reaching 457 million yuan in 1H25, a 27% increase year-on-year, primarily due to better returns from investments in various companies [2]. Development Trends - The company is expected to focus on the progress of new duty-free contract negotiations, as the current contract with its duty-free partner is set to expire at the end of 2025 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at 2.261 billion yuan and 2.742 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.6 times for 2025 and 29.3 times for 2026 [4]. - The company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of 34.5 yuan, which implies a 7% upside potential from the current stock price [4].

2024年，中国中免交出了一份营收与净利润"双降"的成绩单。财报显示，公司全年实现营业收入564.74 亿元，同比下降16.38%；归母净利润42.67亿元，同比大幅缩水36.44%。这一下滑主要归因于核心市场 ——海南离岛免税业务的崩塌。 营收净利双降，海南市场成最大拖累 其一，海南市场"雪崩式"下滑。 海南地区营收从2023年的396.5亿元骤降至288.92亿元，同比降幅达27.13%，占总营收比例由58.71%降 至51.16%。海口海关数据显示，2024年海南离岛免税购物金额、购物人次、购物件数分别同比下降 29.3%、15.9%、35.5%。多重因素叠加导致这一结果： 出境游分流：国际航班恢复后，消费者转向日韩、东南亚等免税购物目的地； 消费降级与国货崛起：贝恩报告显示，2024年中国奢侈品市场出现15年来首次下滑，完美日记、花西子 等高性价比国货挤压进口美妆份额； 竞争加剧：海南免税经营主体增至6家，离岛免税店达12家，中免一家独大格局被打破。 其二，利润端压力凸显。 费用刚性：机场渠道租金随客流恢复上升，叠加存货跌价及合同履约成本减值损失7.4亿元，进一步压 缩利润空间； 四季度恶化：Q4归母 ...