周期论剑｜解读重要会议对周期的方向指引 20251214 很多投资者对跨周期调控存在误解，认为政策不够积极。然而，从去年（2024 年）的经济工作会议可以看到，当时由于尾部风险暴露，需要超常规政策，例 如 10 万亿化债举措。而今年（2025 年）则不同，在尾部风险得到基本管控后， 需要进一步巩固和拓展经济稳中向好的势头。因此，本次会议明确提出要巩固 和拓展经济稳中向好的势头，并强调财政政策更加积极，同时提出内需主导和 推动投资止跌回稳等新概念。 对于明年的财政政策有哪些具体预期？ 摘要 中国市场有望迎来转型牛市，预计春节前达到新高，市场流动性将因再 配置和机构资金回流而改善，中证 800 代表的大盘风格预计在春节前占 优。 预计明年财政赤字率维持在 4%左右，总规模约 5.9 万亿人民币，地方 政府专项债券预计 4.6-4.8 万亿，超长期特别国债增加至 1.5-1.6 万亿， 以旧换新计划扩围至 3,500 亿，刺激耐用消费品消费。 预计明年初中国央行可能降息，以应对经济活动转淡和房地产销售下滑， 推动经济回稳和价格合理回升。 年初具有较强景气度并可能推动估值切换的行业包括出口、制造业全球 扩张和人工智能 ...

机场免税专题会议：上海机场免税招标启动，竞争将助力 价值体现 20251126 摘要 上海机场新一轮免税招标引入分标段、双运营商、外资准入和两阶段考 核机制，旨在通过竞争提升免税业务价值，解决此前合同中保底销售额 过低的问题，激发运营商经营积极性。 2023 年国家调整免税政策，下放地方口岸免税店管理权限，支持网上 预定和提货，并要求至少四分之一面积销售国产品，旨在促进消费回流， 提升国内市场竞争力。 公司收购免税商股权后，可从机场免税店、市内店及北京相关免税业务 中获得投资收益，但需关注机场渠道盈利能力提升，以确保投资回报。 上海机场流量增长虽受限，但作为长三角经济中心和国际枢纽，未来前 景乐观，国际航线仍有增长空间，东航的国际枢纽战略有望提升其国际 中转潜力。 新招标通过引入竞争，有望恢复并提升免税销售额，合理定价和保底机 制将激发经营积极性，使机场渠道在多渠道竞争中保持优势。 新一轮上海机场免税店项目招标对未来盈利弹性有何影响？ 新一轮上海机场免税店项目招标通过引入良性竞争、多家运营商参与以及外资 准入等措施，有望提升整体经营效率和服务质量，从而更好地满足消费者需求。 这将有助于提高非航业务收入，对冲航 ...

Group 1 - The company aims to develop a super international hub, with potential primarily in international passenger flow [2] - With the recovery of passenger traffic, the company has introduced a batch of brand direct stores and airport hotels, which will drive future revenue growth [2] - The advertising and duty-free segments have potential for improvement, with recent surveys indicating that advertising has already shown signs of recovery in Q3 [2][3] Group 2 - The duty-free segment is highlighted as a key area, with expectations for increased competition among operators, which could lead to significant changes [2] - The current minimum guarantee does not reflect the commercial value of Pudong, and a more reasonable guarantee could enhance the motivation of duty-free operators [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a focus on the performance of its aviation and non-aviation businesses [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 6.353 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.044 billion yuan, up 28.14% [1]. - For 2Q25, revenue reached 3.181 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.84% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.28%. The net profit for the quarter was 525 million yuan, showing a year-on-year rise of 22.39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.19% [1]. - The aviation business generated revenue of 2.916 billion yuan in 1H25, marking an 8.35% increase year-on-year, driven by the recovery in airport traffic [1]. - Non-aviation business revenue grew by only 2% year-on-year in 1H24, with commercial catering and logistics services increasing by 2% and 1%, respectively [1]. Cost and Investment - Operating costs and expenses increased slightly by 1% in 1H25, with labor, amortization, and maintenance costs remaining stable compared to the previous year, indicating operational leverage [2]. - Investment income improved significantly, reaching 457 million yuan in 1H25, a 27% increase year-on-year, primarily due to better returns from investments in various companies [2]. Development Trends - The company is expected to focus on the progress of new duty-free contract negotiations, as the current contract with its duty-free partner is set to expire at the end of 2025 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at 2.261 billion yuan and 2.742 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.6 times for 2025 and 29.3 times for 2026 [4]. - The company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of 34.5 yuan, which implies a 7% upside potential from the current stock price [4].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, China Duty Free Group reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit, primarily due to the collapse of its core market, the Hainan offshore duty-free business [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Decline - The company achieved a total revenue of 56.474 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.267 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-on-year [1]. - The Hainan market experienced a drastic revenue drop from 39.65 billion yuan in 2023 to 28.892 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a decline of 27.13% and reducing its contribution to total revenue from 58.71% to 51.16% [2]. Market Challenges - The decline in Hainan's performance is attributed to several factors: - Outbound tourism diversion as international flights resumed, leading consumers to prefer shopping in destinations like Japan and Southeast Asia [2]. - A downgrade in consumer spending and the rise of domestic brands, with the luxury goods market in China experiencing its first decline in 15 years [2]. - Increased competition with the number of duty-free operators in Hainan rising to six, disrupting the previously dominant position of China Duty Free [2]. Profit Pressure - Despite a nearly 2 percentage point increase in market share, profit margins faced significant pressure: - The gross margin for offshore duty-free business fell by 2.03 percentage points to 23.73% due to increased discounting [4]. - Fixed costs, including rising airport channel rents and inventory impairment losses of 740 million yuan, further compressed profit margins [4]. - In Q4, net profit attributable to shareholders plummeted to 348 million yuan, a staggering year-on-year decline of 76.9%, marking the worst performance of the year [4]. Business Structure Adjustment - In response to the downturn in Hainan, the company is diversifying its channels to balance losses and gains: - Airport duty-free sales grew, benefiting from the recovery of international flights, with revenues at Beijing and Shanghai airports increasing by 115% and 32% respectively [6]. - The company secured operating rights for ten new airport and port duty-free projects, enhancing its channel advantages [6]. International Expansion - To counter domestic competition, the company is accelerating its international expansion: - New openings include duty-free stores at Singapore Changi Airport and Hong Kong International Airport, as well as operations in Japan and Sri Lanka [8]. - A new cargo route from Milan to Haikou has been established, reducing product transport time to two days, facilitating global inventory management [8]. Emerging Channel Potential - The company has won operating rights for six new cities, increasing its total to 13 city duty-free stores, which are expected to contribute significantly to sales [10]. - The membership program has surpassed 38 million members, although the value of consumer reward points has declined for two consecutive years, indicating a need to enhance repurchase rates and average transaction values [11]. Future Challenges and Strategic Outlook - Short-term challenges include uncertainties in consumer recovery and the potential impact of aggressive discounting by competitors on industry profit margins [11]. - Long-term strategies focus on internationalization and digitalization, leveraging initiatives like the "Belt and Road" to expand into South Asia and collaborating with domestic brands to establish overseas duty-free channels [12][13].