中东局势再升级。当地时间6月13日凌晨，以色列宣布对伊朗发动空袭，导致伊朗多处建筑起火。次日 （6月14日），以色列进一步将打击目标扩展至伊朗能源设施，南部布什尔省两座炼油厂遭空袭。其中， 南帕尔斯第14期天然气处理设施发生爆炸并起火，法杰尔·贾姆炼油厂亦遭袭击并起火。 伊朗随后迅速展开反击。6月16日凌晨，伊朗向以色列发动新一轮导弹攻击，目标包括海法、特拉维夫、 佩塔提克瓦、布内布拉克等多地。多枚导弹击中海法的发电厂和炼油厂，造成进一步破坏。 华泰证券认为伊朗原油产量及出口短期或将下滑，油价将进入高波动阶段，霍尔木兹海峡关乎沙特等中东 产油国的共同核心利益，运输受阻风险有待进一步评估。全球石油需求增量持续受电、气冲击，供给端产 油国协同趋弱及新兴供应力量崛起，预计2025—2027年油价中枢仍将下行，基于边际成本及供给方"利重 于量"诉求的新一轮再平衡，油价中枢仍将高于60美元/桶。 兴业证券指出，当前地缘冲突导致全球大类资产再度波动，风险资产普遍承压，石油与黄金则表现强势。 尽管部分投资者担忧科技成长股是否将因风险升温而走弱，但复盘2020年初美伊冲突及2023年10月巴以 冲突可发现，地缘风险对市场的影 ...

图 一周摘要 图 市场概况： 上周（6月9日至6月13日）A股市场整体呈现回调态势。主要宽基指数中，科创50领跌，全 周下跌1.89%；低估值蓝筹类指数相对抗跌，沪深300、中证1000、上证50分别下跌0.25%、0.76%和 0.46%，流动性波动对市场情绪形成压制。全周板块轮动迹象明显，资金偏向业绩稳定的大盘价值股， 成长板块则受制于估值压力，上证指数下跌0.25%，深证指数下跌0.60%，创业板指上涨0.22%。 行业板块： 上周Wind百大概念指数上涨占比约64%。板块方面，42%板块获得正收益，有色金属、石 油石化、农林牧渔相对表现良好，分别上涨3.79%、3.50%、1.62%，医药生物、非银金融、国防军工等 均出现小幅上行，而建筑材料、家用电器、食品饮料则明显走弱，分别下跌2.77%、3.26%、4.37%。 基金发行： 上周 合计发行15只，其中股票型基金发行4只，混合型基金发行6只，债券型基金发行4 只， FOF型基金发行1只，总发行份额89.34亿份。 基金表现 ： 上周万得全基指数上涨0.10%。其中，万得普通股票型基金指数上涨0.21%，万得偏股 混合型基金指数上涨0.25%，万得债 ...

回顾2025上半年，特朗普导致全球市场动荡，令美元资产失去市场信任，"去美元"成为共识交易。 特朗普的第二任期开始，美元指数从2025年1月18日的最高点110.18，一路下行跌破100关口。美元指数现在处于什么位置？美元会开启贬值大周 期吗？作为全球第一大国际货币，美元的长期走向，将深刻影响未来全球大类资产交易的方向。 为了帮大家看清2025年下半年大类资产关键走势的影响，华尔街见闻邀请两位具有大类资产交易员背景的知名分析师举行Alpha线上闭门私享会， 与会员们分享他们的最新研判。 6月12日（周四）晚间，我们将邀请Clocktower Group首席策略师，研究部负责人王凯文老师，来为会员们围绕美元中长期走势展开分享，他认 为我们即将迎来"史上最大美元熊市"。在闭门分享中，他将从五大维度前瞻美元熊市大周期，推演美元大熊市对全球资产和中国资产意味着什 么，帮大家看清全球资产大趋势、理清思路。 Clocktower是一家总部位于美国加州洛杉矶的另类资产管理平台，其策略部门主要为全球机构投资者提供全球宏观，地缘政治和市场分析。 Clocktower的首席策略师王凯文老师毕业于约翰霍普金斯大学高等国际关系学院， ...

市场概况 过去一个月，国内各资产指数两级分化。股票方面各指数均上涨，其中万得微盘股涨幅最大，为 10.21%，中证 2000 上涨 4.34%，沪深 300 上涨 2.02%，中证 1000、中证 500、上证 50 和万得全 A 均上涨，分别为上涨 1.57%、1.00%、 1.81%、2.39%。债券方面，5 月份各期限债券指数部分上涨。其中，7-10 年信用债指数月涨幅最高，为 0.58%，1 年 以下信用债指数、1-3 年国债指数、3-5 年信用债指数和 3-5 年国债指数分别上涨 0.52%、0.14%、0.52 和 0.02%。7- 10 年国债指数分别下跌-0.15%。商品方面，5 月份南华分类商品指数均下跌，其中黑色跌幅最大，为 5.16%，农产 品、贵金属、能化和有色金属分别下跌-0.75%、-0.74%、-3.87%和-0.31%。 经济增长方面，制造业景气水平有所改善。虽从数量端看，4 月份工业增加值同比报 6.1%，较上月降低 1.6%，有所 下滑。但利润端有所改善，4 月份工业企业利润总额当月同比增长 3%，累计同比增长 1.4%。由于受到美国关税政策 冲击，4 月份出口金额同比增长 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the market share of the analyzed sector, with a growth rate of 91% in the last quarter, indicating strong demand and potential for further expansion [2][4]. - The report projects a 24% increase in revenue for the upcoming fiscal year, driven by strategic initiatives and market trends [2][4]. - Inflation rates are expected to stabilize around 2.3%, which may influence consumer spending and investment strategies within the industry [4]. Industry Overview - The industry is experiencing a robust growth trajectory, with key performance indicators showing a consistent upward trend in market demand and profitability [2][4]. - The report notes that the sector's performance is closely tied to global economic conditions, particularly in relation to commodity prices and supply chain dynamics [4][5]. - Emerging technologies and innovations are expected to play a crucial role in enhancing operational efficiencies and driving competitive advantages [4][6]. Financial Performance - The financial metrics indicate a strong balance sheet, with a projected increase in net income by 36% year-over-year, reflecting effective cost management and revenue growth strategies [4][6]. - Key financial ratios, such as return on equity (ROE) and profit margins, are expected to improve, suggesting a healthy financial outlook for the company [4][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining liquidity to navigate potential market fluctuations and capitalize on investment opportunities [4][6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding its product offerings and entering new markets to diversify revenue streams and mitigate risks [2][4]. - Strategic partnerships and collaborations are being pursued to enhance market reach and leverage complementary strengths [4][6]. - The report outlines plans for increased investment in research and development to foster innovation and maintain a competitive edge [4][6].

Core Insights - The report highlights a projected growth rate of 2.8% to 3% for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the upcoming period [4][6][8] - It emphasizes the importance of OPEC+ decisions on market dynamics, particularly in relation to supply and pricing strategies [4][17] - The analysis includes a detailed examination of various indices, showing significant performance variations across different markets, with DAX and S&P 500 showing notable trends [6][8][9] Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of global economic conditions on the industry, particularly focusing on inflation rates and monetary policies [4][6] - It notes that the industry is experiencing shifts due to technological advancements and changing consumer preferences, which are reshaping market strategies [4][17] - The analysis includes a comparison of performance metrics across major indices, highlighting the resilience of certain sectors amidst economic fluctuations [6][8] Company Analysis - Specific companies within the industry are identified as key players, with strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing market share and operational efficiency [4][17] - The report outlines financial performance metrics for these companies, indicating a trend towards increased profitability and investment in innovation [4][6] - It also addresses potential challenges faced by these companies, including regulatory pressures and competitive dynamics [4][17]

Core Insights - The report indicates a favorable opportunity for asset allocation in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in H-shares and A-shares, as they are expected to benefit from policy support and market recovery [2][6]. - The global economic outlook shows a gradual recovery, with China's economy improving and the U.S. facing potential economic challenges due to fiscal weaknesses [6][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring U.S. monetary policy, which is currently in a cautious stance, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts within the year [6][61]. Global Asset Strategy - Short-term allocation suggests favoring H-shares and small-cap A-shares, while medium-term strategies include A-shares and bonds [6]. - The report highlights a shift in global economic conditions, with China's economic indicators showing improvement, while the U.S. economy is experiencing a downturn [6][20]. - The report notes that U.S. monetary policy is in a state of observation, with potential rate cuts anticipated, which could influence market dynamics [6][61]. Market Performance - The report outlines that Chinese assets, gold, and currencies like the euro and yen have outperformed from March 16 to April 15, 2025 [10][13]. - A-shares and H-shares are expected to see increased capital inflows, benefiting from favorable policy changes and market sentiment [6][13]. - The performance of U.S. stocks is projected to decline, with concerns over trade policies and economic recession impacting market stability [6][13]. Economic Indicators - China's economic indicators, including PMI and credit growth, are showing signs of recovery, with March data exceeding expectations [20][58]. - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is facing challenges, with manufacturing and service sectors showing unexpected declines [20][66]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation trends in the U.S., as core CPI is showing signs of decline, which could influence future monetary policy [66]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariff policies and the potential for easing tensions, which could positively affect market sentiment [6][26]. - China's ongoing consumer policy initiatives are expected to stimulate domestic consumption and support economic recovery [45][46]. - The report highlights the need for continued observation of U.S. fiscal policies and their implications for global markets [6][28].