然而，新出口订单指数下降至97.9，已跌破基准点100，进入收缩区间，预示今年晚些时候贸易增长将 放缓。 根据全球货物贸易景气指数的编制规则，数值100为基准点，意味着全球货物贸易增长符合中期趋势预 期。如果指数大于100，表示全球货物贸易增长高于预期水平，反之则表示增长低于预期水平。 世贸组织警告说，在某些情况下，比如美国"对等关税"完全付诸实施，或者贸易政策不确定性在全球范 围内蔓延，贸易收缩将有可能发生。 新华社日内瓦6月26日电（记者焦倩）世界贸易组织26日发布报告说，全球货物贸易在2025年头几个月 呈现强劲增长态势，但增长势头可能无法维持。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:钱中兵】 世贸组织发布的最新一期《货物贸易晴雨表》显示，全球货物贸易景气指数从3月发布的102.8升至 103.5，对关税上调的预期导致一季度进口激增。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The WTO's latest Goods Trade Barometer indicates a rise in the global goods trade index to 103.5, the highest level since August 2021, suggesting ongoing growth in global goods trade [1] Group 1: Trade Index and Growth - The global goods trade index increased from 102.8 in March to 103.5, remaining above the baseline of 100, which indicates growth in global goods trade [1] - The report anticipates strong growth in global commodity trade by early 2025, driven by importers preemptively purchasing ahead of expected tariff increases [1] Group 2: Export Orders and Future Outlook - Export orders are the only category showing negative growth, indicating potential challenges ahead for sustained trade growth [1] - The new export orders index has decreased to 97.9, falling below the baseline of 100 and entering a contraction zone, suggesting a slowdown in trade growth later this year [1]