报告显示，2025年上半年，全球货物贸易量同比增长4.9%，以美元计价的全球货物贸易额同比增长 6%。北美地区为规避高关税提前扩大进口、宏观经济条件改善、人工智能相关商品需求激增是驱动增 长的主要因素。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:冯粒】 世贸组织经济学家强调，贸易限制措施和政策不确定性向更多经济体及行业蔓延，构成主要下行风险。 世贸组织总干事伊维拉当天在新闻发布会上表示，尽管单边关税措施和贸易政策不确定性带来强劲逆 风，但得益于多边贸易体系所提供的稳定性，以及成员针对关税变化采取的适当应对措施，全球贸易仍 展现一定韧性。 在该报告中，世贸组织将2025年全球货物贸易增长预期从8月预测的0.9%上调至2.4%。 新华社日内瓦10月7日电（记者焦倩）世界贸易组织7日发布最新全球贸易展望报告说，受全球经济复苏 乏力和美国关税政策等因素影响，2026年全球货物贸易增长预期大幅下调至0.5%，较8月预测的1.8%显 著降低。 受货物贸易和生产的关联影响，服务贸易也将间接受到关税冲击。报告预测，2025年全球服务出口增速 将从2024年的6.8%降至4.6%，2026年进一步降至4.4%。 ...

然而，新出口订单指数下降至97.9，已跌破基准点100，进入收缩区间，预示今年晚些时候贸易增长将 放缓。 根据全球货物贸易景气指数的编制规则，数值100为基准点，意味着全球货物贸易增长符合中期趋势预 期。如果指数大于100，表示全球货物贸易增长高于预期水平，反之则表示增长低于预期水平。 世贸组织警告说，在某些情况下，比如美国"对等关税"完全付诸实施，或者贸易政策不确定性在全球范 围内蔓延，贸易收缩将有可能发生。 新华社日内瓦6月26日电（记者焦倩）世界贸易组织26日发布报告说，全球货物贸易在2025年头几个月 呈现强劲增长态势，但增长势头可能无法维持。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:钱中兵】 世贸组织发布的最新一期《货物贸易晴雨表》显示，全球货物贸易景气指数从3月发布的102.8升至 103.5，对关税上调的预期导致一季度进口激增。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has downgraded the global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 from 2.5% to 1.8% due to recent tariff adjustments impacting global trade prospects [1] Summary by Sections Trade Growth Forecast - The WTO predicts a 0.9% growth in global goods trade for 2025, an improvement from the previous forecast of -0.2%, but still below the earlier estimate of 2.7% based on lower tariff levels [1] - The adjustment in the forecast is primarily attributed to U.S. importers stockpiling goods ahead of tariff increases, resulting in an 11% year-on-year increase in U.S. imports in the first half of this year [1] Regional Insights - Asian economies are expected to remain the largest engine for global goods trade growth in 2025 [1] - North America is projected to continue dragging down global trade growth over the next two years, while Europe is anticipated to have a slight negative impact on global trade growth this year [1] Tariff Impact - The WTO Director-General, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, highlighted that the comprehensive effects of recent tariff measures are becoming evident, with tariff uncertainty being one of the most destructive forces in the global trade environment, affecting business confidence, investment, and supply chains [1]

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) reported strong growth in global merchandise trade in Q1 due to expectations of increased tariffs by the United States [1] - Global merchandise trade increased by 3.6% quarter-on-quarter and 5.3% year-on-year, surpassing previous WTO forecasts [1] - The significant rise in imports in North America, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.4%, was a major contributing factor [1]

Core Insights - The global merchandise trade barometer index rose from 102.8 in March to 103.5 in June, marking the highest level since August 2021 and remaining above the baseline of 100, indicating ongoing trade growth [1] - Strong growth in global merchandise trade in the early months of the year was driven by importers' anticipatory purchasing behavior in response to expected tariff policy adjustments [1] - In contrast, the new export orders index fell to 97.9, dropping below the baseline of 100 and entering a contraction zone, suggesting a potential slowdown in global trade growth later in the year [1] Trade Dynamics - The global merchandise trade barometer serves as an early warning signal for short-term trade trends by collecting trade statistics from major economies [1] - The report highlights a stark contrast between surging import demand and weak export orders, reflecting an imbalance in the current global trade structure [1] - Export orders were the only category to show negative growth, indicating the fragility of trade growth despite strong import activity [1] Future Outlook - The World Trade Organization warns that increasing uncertainty in trade policies globally could exacerbate the risk of trade contraction [2] - Potential large-scale tariff implementations could pose significant challenges to global trade [2] - While short-term growth in global merchandise trade is observed, the medium-term outlook faces numerous challenges due to rising uncertainty factors in the global economic environment [2]

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) reported strong growth in global merchandise trade in the early months of 2025, but this momentum may not be sustainable [1] - The latest Goods Trade Barometer from the WTO indicates that the global merchandise trade index rose from 102.8 in March to 103.5, driven by a surge in imports due to tariff hike expectations [1] - However, the new export orders index has declined to 97.9, falling below the baseline of 100 and entering a contraction zone, suggesting a slowdown in trade growth later this year [1] Trade Growth Indicators - The global merchandise trade index increased to 103.5, reflecting a positive outlook for trade in early 2025 [1] - The surge in imports during the first quarter was influenced by expectations of tariff increases [1] - The decline in the new export orders index to 97.9 indicates potential challenges ahead for trade growth [1]