然而，新出口订单指数下降至97.9，已跌破基准点100，进入收缩区间，预示今年晚些时候贸易增长将 放缓。 根据全球货物贸易景气指数的编制规则，数值100为基准点，意味着全球货物贸易增长符合中期趋势预 期。如果指数大于100，表示全球货物贸易增长高于预期水平，反之则表示增长低于预期水平。 世贸组织警告说，在某些情况下，比如美国"对等关税"完全付诸实施，或者贸易政策不确定性在全球范 围内蔓延，贸易收缩将有可能发生。 新华社日内瓦6月26日电（记者焦倩）世界贸易组织26日发布报告说，全球货物贸易在2025年头几个月 呈现强劲增长态势，但增长势头可能无法维持。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:钱中兵】 世贸组织发布的最新一期《货物贸易晴雨表》显示，全球货物贸易景气指数从3月发布的102.8升至 103.5，对关税上调的预期导致一季度进口激增。 ...

世贸组织总干事伊维拉指出，近期关税措施的全面影响在持续显现，关税不确定性使企业信心、投资和 供应链持续承压，是全球贸易环境中最具破坏性的力量之一。 新华社日内瓦8月8日电（记者焦倩）世界贸易组织8日发布最新一期贸易预测报告，将2026年全球货物 贸易增长预期从4月预测的2.5%下调至1.8%。 责编：张荣耀、刘强 报告预计，2025年全球货物贸易将增长0.9%，高于4月预测的负0.2%，但仍低于更早前基于低关税水平 预测的2.7%。报告说，较4月预测上调的主要原因是美国进口商抢在关税上升前囤货，导致该国今年上 半年进口量同比大增11%。此外，全球宏观经济前景与4月相比有所改善。 从地区来看，亚洲经济体2025年将继续成为全球货物贸易增长的最大引擎，而北美地区今明两年将持续 拖累全球贸易增长，欧洲对今年全球贸易增长也将产生轻微负面影响。 报告警告，近期关税调整将对全球贸易前景产生负面影响。美国7日生效的高额"对等关税"将在2025年 下半年及2026年拖累美国进口、抑制美国贸易伙伴出口。 ...

世界贸易组织15日发布的季度数据显示，由于对美国上调关税的预期，今年一季度全球货物贸易增长势 头强劲，但随着更高的关税付诸实施，后续增速预计将放缓。世贸组织说，今年一季度全球货物贸易较 上一季度增长3.6%，较去年同期增长5.3%，高于世贸组织先前预期。主要原因是，对美国上调关税的 预期导致北美地区进口大幅增长，环比增幅达13.4%，远高于其他地区。 ...

Core Insights - The global merchandise trade barometer index rose from 102.8 in March to 103.5 in June, marking the highest level since August 2021 and remaining above the baseline of 100, indicating ongoing trade growth [1] - Strong growth in global merchandise trade in the early months of the year was driven by importers' anticipatory purchasing behavior in response to expected tariff policy adjustments [1] - In contrast, the new export orders index fell to 97.9, dropping below the baseline of 100 and entering a contraction zone, suggesting a potential slowdown in global trade growth later in the year [1] Trade Dynamics - The global merchandise trade barometer serves as an early warning signal for short-term trade trends by collecting trade statistics from major economies [1] - The report highlights a stark contrast between surging import demand and weak export orders, reflecting an imbalance in the current global trade structure [1] - Export orders were the only category to show negative growth, indicating the fragility of trade growth despite strong import activity [1] Future Outlook - The World Trade Organization warns that increasing uncertainty in trade policies globally could exacerbate the risk of trade contraction [2] - Potential large-scale tariff implementations could pose significant challenges to global trade [2] - While short-term growth in global merchandise trade is observed, the medium-term outlook faces numerous challenges due to rising uncertainty factors in the global economic environment [2]

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) reported strong growth in global merchandise trade in the early months of 2025, but this momentum may not be sustainable [1] - The latest Goods Trade Barometer from the WTO indicates that the global merchandise trade index rose from 102.8 in March to 103.5, driven by a surge in imports due to tariff hike expectations [1] - However, the new export orders index has declined to 97.9, falling below the baseline of 100 and entering a contraction zone, suggesting a slowdown in trade growth later this year [1] Trade Growth Indicators - The global merchandise trade index increased to 103.5, reflecting a positive outlook for trade in early 2025 [1] - The surge in imports during the first quarter was influenced by expectations of tariff increases [1] - The decline in the new export orders index to 97.9 indicates potential challenges ahead for trade growth [1]