全球贸易紊乱

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“我们正处于世界贸易史上最大一次紊乱中”,WTO改革为MC14中心优先事项
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 07:01
Core Points - The WTO is currently facing the largest disruption in global trade history, necessitating a focus on reform and repositioning ahead of the upcoming MC14 meeting in March 2026 [1][4] - The WTO Director-General emphasized the need for a credible roadmap to address issues arising from the current trade crisis [1][4] Group 1: WTO Reform and Priorities - Members have expressed a strong consensus on prioritizing the repositioning and reform of the WTO, highlighting its relevance and resilience amid global uncertainties [4] - Key areas for reform include addressing deficiencies in the existing rules, enhancing oversight and transparency, and improving negotiation and dispute resolution mechanisms [4] - The upcoming MC14 will also focus on agricultural negotiations, fisheries subsidies, e-commerce initiatives, and integrating investment promotion agreements into the WTO framework [4] Group 2: Dispute Resolution Mechanism - The WTO's dispute resolution mechanism is currently facing challenges, with the U.S. recently vetoing proposals to fill vacancies in the appellate body, reflecting ongoing concerns about its operation [5] - A significant number of members have shown support for proposals aimed at restoring a fully operational two-tier dispute resolution system, emphasizing the need for stability amid increasing trade turmoil [5] Group 3: Current Trade Outlook - A recent WTO report indicated a sharp deterioration in global trade prospects due to tariff policies, projecting a 0.2% decline in global goods trade volume for 2025, down from a previous forecast of 2.9% growth for 2024 [7] - The report also anticipates a significant decline in trade volume in North America, with exports expected to drop by 12.6% this year [8]