海内外嘉宾齐聚广州共探贸易冲突下的经济破局之道 中新网广州12月3日电 (记者 蔡敏婕)"贸易和关税在过去几十年推动世界经济快速增长，但当前的冲突 正给全球带来深刻冲击。"正在广州举行的"2025从都国际论坛"上，西班牙前驻华大使、世界领袖联盟 顾问拉法尔·德斯卡亚的开场白，点燃了全场的讨论热情。 在12月3日举行的大会讨论环节，海内外政商界人士围绕"贸易与关税冲突下的世界经济发展走势"这一 主题各抒己见。 意大利前总理罗马诺·普罗迪提出，当前全球贸易领域的纷争本质上并非经济冲突，而是政治摩擦的延 伸。这种反全球化的倾向正在改变全球化进程，甚至阻碍自由贸易的发展。他表示，中美作为全球最大 的两个经济体，各自面临经济结构调整的挑战，欧洲则需要建立独立、统一的决策机制。 "贸易不仅是经济手段，更是文明交流的桥梁。中国将继续坚定拥抱自由贸易，同时推动经济发展的普 惠性，让更多民众共享发展成果。"南京大学国际关系学院院长朱锋强调，没有任何国家能够脱离全球 贸易体系独善其身，公平对等的贸易合作仍是共同选择，"中美作为全球两大经济体，脱钩对双方都没 有好处，元首外交的持续推进有望为贸易合作创造更好环境。" 在探讨区域发展 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global trade system is at a crossroads, and a realistic approach is needed to adapt to the changing landscape, moving away from the idea of a WTO without the U.S. [2] Group 1: Future of Global Trade - The future of the global trade system should involve a mixed framework that includes multilateral, regional, and bilateral mechanisms working in tandem [2] - Regional agreements like CPTPP and RCEP are not a betrayal of multilateralism but rather serve as experimental grounds and pioneers for its evolution [2] - The current strategy aims to build consensus and precedents through regional practices to ultimately reform the WTO, providing a pragmatic roadmap for global trade [2] Group 2: Expert Background - Jeffrey Schott is a highly influential expert in global trade policy and international economic relations, having served as an advisor to various U.S. government agencies [2] - Schott has a strong focus on trade agreements, economic sanctions, and the WTO system, with numerous academic contributions including books on NAFTA and debt crises [2]

Group 1: U.S.-EU Trade Relations - The U.S. trade policy is causing a fundamental shift in U.S.-EU trade relations, moving away from a rules-based system to a more aggressive stance [1][5] - The EU is facing a "perfect storm" in its steel and automotive industries due to U.S. tariffs of 50% on steel and 15% on automobiles, leading to significant pressure on these sectors [2][6][7] - The recent framework agreement between the U.S. and EU is viewed as a "risk mitigation" measure rather than a stable foundation for trade relations [5][12] Group 2: EU's Strategic Response - The EU is adopting a "diversification" strategy to reduce reliance on the U.S. by pursuing trade agreements with countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and India [2][10][11] - The EU aims to strengthen its internal market resilience while avoiding a protectionist path similar to the U.S. [2][11] - The EU is committed to compliance with WTO rules while addressing the challenges posed by U.S. unilateral actions [2][11] Group 3: Future Trade Disputes - The digital regulation area is anticipated to be a new focal point for trade disputes, with U.S. tech companies pressuring the government to counter EU digital rules [2][13] - Potential conflicts may also arise from EU climate legislation, particularly regarding environmental regulations [2][13] - The U.S. has threatened to initiate investigations under Section 301 against EU digital regulations, indicating a risk of escalating tensions [12][13] Group 4: WTO Reform and Leadership - The EU is called to take a leadership role in WTO reforms, focusing on key areas such as subsidy rules, economic security policies, and dispute resolution mechanisms [3][14] - Cooperation with like-minded countries and key players like China is essential for effective WTO reform, particularly in subsidy rule discussions [3][14] - The EU's strategy includes enhancing its free trade agreement network, aiming to solidify partnerships that adhere to a rules-based trade system [17]

Group 1 - The global economy is facing multiple challenges including unilateralism, protectionism, and geopolitical conflicts, leading to a significant restructuring of global trade [1] - The WTO has revised its global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 down to 0.5%, highlighting the urgent need for enhanced international coordination and cooperation [1] Group 2 - The eighth Hongqiao International Economic Forum focused on "Global Trade Restructuring and WTO Reform," emphasizing the necessity of multilateralism to address global challenges [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce highlighted that multilateralism is essential for overcoming challenges, asserting that economic globalization cannot be halted by "de-globalization" [3] - The forum discussed the importance of strengthening communication and cooperation among countries to maintain a resilient and sustainable global supply chain [3] Group 3 - Reforming the WTO is crucial for leading global trade restructuring, as the multilateral trade system is the foundation of international trade [4] - China is a significant engine for global economic growth, contributing approximately 30% to world economic growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4] - The WTO Deputy Director-General emphasized the resilience of the multilateral trade system and the need for member cooperation to maintain its authority and relevance [4] Group 4 - Experts at the forum stressed the importance of the WTO in rewriting balanced trade rules and enhancing its institutional capacity to combat unilateralism [5] - There is a consensus that a rules-based multilateral trade system provides stability and predictability for global trade, and reforms are necessary to keep the rules up to date [5] - Participants expressed hope for China to play a more active role in improving the global governance system and promoting common development [5]

Core Points - The U.S. government has resolved an 8-month stalemate with the WTO regarding its membership fees, paying over $25 million in overdue fees despite previous criticisms of the organization by the Trump administration [1][2] - The U.S. is required to pay 11% of the WTO's annual budget, which amounts to approximately $25.7 million for 2024, and has communicated to WTO staff that the payment has been made, thus avoiding administrative penalties [2][4] - The U.S. continues to block the appointment of judges to the WTO's appellate body, which has been inoperative since 2019, and has been criticized for selectively enforcing dispute settlement rulings [3][4] Group 1 - The U.S. has paid its overdue fees to the WTO, which had been in a first-class arrears status, allowing the organization to maintain its daily operations [1][2] - The payment alleviates some budget pressure on the WTO, which had to reduce activities and technical assistance to developing countries due to financial constraints [5][6] - Despite the payment, the U.S. remains resistant to restoring the appellate body, indicating a lack of comprehensive support for the WTO [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. has been involved in a selective execution of WTO dispute settlement rulings, leading to a significant number of cases where the U.S. has been criticized for non-compliance [3][6] - Experts suggest that the U.S. is participating in the WTO in a manner that serves its interests rather than committing to a fundamental change in strategy [4][5] - The ongoing discussions about WTO reform are contentious, especially with the upcoming ministerial meeting in March 2026 [5][6]

Core Points - The U.S. has resolved an eight-month deadlock with the WTO by paying approximately $25.7 million in overdue fees, despite previous criticisms of the organization by the Trump administration [1][3] - The payment ensures that the U.S. is no longer subject to administrative measures for overdue fees, which could have included various penalties [3][6] - The U.S. is still not restoring the WTO's appellate body, which has been paralyzed since 2019 due to the U.S. blocking the appointment of new judges [3][5] Financial Obligations - The U.S. is required to pay 11% of the WTO's annual budget, which is approximately 205 million Swiss Francs (around $25.7 million) for 2024 [3] - The overdue fees had significant implications for the WTO's operations, leading to budget constraints and a reduction in technical assistance to developing countries [6][7] U.S. Participation in WTO - Despite the payment, the U.S. continues to undermine the WTO's dispute resolution capabilities by blocking the selection of appellate body members [4][5] - The U.S. is engaging in WTO technical work at an administrative level, indicating a selective approach to participation rather than a fundamental strategy shift [6][7] - Experts suggest that the U.S. payment is more about maintaining control over the WTO rather than a genuine commitment to reforming the organization [6][7]

Group 1 - China's Prime Minister Li Qiang announced that China will not seek any new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations, reflecting a proactive stance in the ongoing US-China rivalry [1][3] - The US has pressured China for three years regarding its developing country status, arguing that as the world's second-largest economy, China should not enjoy preferential treatment [2][3] - China's strategic response effectively neutralized US criticisms, allowing it to maintain its core interests while demonstrating flexibility in its approach to international trade [3][4] Group 2 - This move by China serves three strategic objectives: it eliminates a key point of attack from the US, allows China to participate in global rule-making on more equal terms, and showcases its role as a responsible major power [4][7] - The timing of this adjustment is significant, as it coincides with a deadlock in WTO reforms, potentially revitalizing discussions and enhancing China's international standing [4][7] - China's average tariff has decreased to 4.4%, nearing levels seen in developed countries, indicating its commitment to aligning with global trade standards [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Director-General of WTO, Iweala, welcomed China's announcement that it will no longer seek Special and Differential Treatment (S&DT) in future WTO agreements, highlighting its commitment to a more balanced and fair global trade system [1] Group 1 - Iweala expressed appreciation for China's decision, stating it represents a critical moment for the WTO [1] - The decision is seen as a strong signal supporting WTO reform and will contribute to creating a fairer competitive environment for all members [1] - This move is expected to stimulate discussions and assist in building a more flexible and efficient WTO for the 21st century [1]

Group 1 - Brazilian President Lula will convene a virtual meeting of BRICS leaders to discuss Trump's tariffs and trade policies [1] - The meeting aims to defend multilateralism, a core agenda for BRICS, and will also address the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference [1] - Lula seeks to rally support from other emerging market leaders against the tariffs imposed by the US, which have created challenges for BRICS nations in reaching a unified statement [1][2] Group 2 - Brazil's Foreign Minister Vieira stated that the Lula administration is pushing for WTO reform, highlighting concerns over the deteriorating multilateral trade system [2] - Brazil has engaged in dialogues with countries affected by US tariffs, including China, India, Mexico, and France, to address the asymmetry in bilateral negotiations under pressure from stronger nations [2] - The upcoming BRICS meeting follows significant discussions between Indian and Chinese leaders, suggesting potential for a more substantial resolution on tariff issues among BRICS nations [2]

Core Points - The core argument of the articles revolves around the recent confrontation between China and the United States at the WTO meeting in Geneva, highlighting China's stance against the U.S.'s unilateral trade policies and the support it received from 47 countries for multilateralism [1][3][5]. Group 1: China's Position - China submitted a written proposal emphasizing that the U.S.'s "reciprocal tariff" policy violates WTO rules and harms developing countries' interests, potentially destabilizing the global trade system [1][3]. - The Chinese delegation articulated the need for a stable, rule-based international economic order, advocating for transparency and predictability in trade policies to avoid unnecessary market disruptions [5][7]. - China proposed three main directions: prioritizing stability, focusing on development, and pushing for reform within the WTO to address outdated rules and new challenges [5][7]. Group 2: International Support and Reactions - A total of 47 countries supported China's and other nations' joint statement on maintaining the multilateral trade system, indicating a collective response to the challenges posed by unilateral actions [3][7]. - Countries like Brazil, Russia, and Pakistan expressed concerns over unilateralism and emphasized the need to strengthen the authority of WTO rules [3][5]. - The EU and Japan have also criticized U.S. policies, indicating a growing discontent among traditional allies regarding America's approach to trade [3][5]. Group 3: Challenges Ahead - Despite the consensus achieved at the Geneva meeting, WTO reform faces significant challenges, particularly due to the U.S.'s obstruction of the appellate body and the divergent interests of member countries on new issues [7]. - The EU highlighted the costs associated with the current chaotic global tariff system, underscoring the urgency for reform to prevent the multilateral trade system from becoming ineffective [7].