美国的"关税大棒"在全球掀起巨浪，但真正的问题在于：全球贸易体系将走向何方？近日，彼得森国际 经济研究所高级研究员杰弗里·肖特（Jeffrey Schott）在2025外滩年会期间接受了21世纪经济报道记者专 访，给出他的答案。 肖特认为，固守"没有美国的WTO"是不现实的幻想。他勾勒出一条更具韧性的未来路径：全球贸易体 系必须学会"三条腿走路"——即构建一个多边、区域与双边机制相互补充、协同运作的混合架构。在此 框架下，CPTPP和RCEP等区域协定并非对多边主义的背叛，而是其进化的"试验场"与"先锋"。当下的 战略是，通过区域实践积累共识与先例，为最终改革WTO铺平道路。这为困顿中的全球贸易提供了一 份务实的路线图。 0:00 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者郑青亭 上海报道 肖特是全球贸易政策与国际经济关系领域极具影响力的权威专家，曾担任美国财政部、美国贸易代表办 公室等多个政府机构的顾问。他长期专注于研究贸易协定、经济制裁及世界贸易组织（WTO）体系， 学术成果丰硕，著有《北美自由贸易协定：一个评估》和《应对被遗忘的债务危机》等多部著作。 ...

Group 1: U.S.-EU Trade Relations - The U.S. trade policy is causing a fundamental shift in U.S.-EU trade relations, moving away from a rules-based system to a more aggressive stance [1][5] - The EU is facing a "perfect storm" in its steel and automotive industries due to U.S. tariffs of 50% on steel and 15% on automobiles, leading to significant pressure on these sectors [2][6][7] - The recent framework agreement between the U.S. and EU is viewed as a "risk mitigation" measure rather than a stable foundation for trade relations [5][12] Group 2: EU's Strategic Response - The EU is adopting a "diversification" strategy to reduce reliance on the U.S. by pursuing trade agreements with countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and India [2][10][11] - The EU aims to strengthen its internal market resilience while avoiding a protectionist path similar to the U.S. [2][11] - The EU is committed to compliance with WTO rules while addressing the challenges posed by U.S. unilateral actions [2][11] Group 3: Future Trade Disputes - The digital regulation area is anticipated to be a new focal point for trade disputes, with U.S. tech companies pressuring the government to counter EU digital rules [2][13] - Potential conflicts may also arise from EU climate legislation, particularly regarding environmental regulations [2][13] - The U.S. has threatened to initiate investigations under Section 301 against EU digital regulations, indicating a risk of escalating tensions [12][13] Group 4: WTO Reform and Leadership - The EU is called to take a leadership role in WTO reforms, focusing on key areas such as subsidy rules, economic security policies, and dispute resolution mechanisms [3][14] - Cooperation with like-minded countries and key players like China is essential for effective WTO reform, particularly in subsidy rule discussions [3][14] - The EU's strategy includes enhancing its free trade agreement network, aiming to solidify partnerships that adhere to a rules-based trade system [17]

Group 1 - The global economy is facing multiple challenges including unilateralism, protectionism, and geopolitical conflicts, leading to a significant restructuring of global trade [1] - The WTO has revised its global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 down to 0.5%, highlighting the urgent need for enhanced international coordination and cooperation [1] Group 2 - The eighth Hongqiao International Economic Forum focused on "Global Trade Restructuring and WTO Reform," emphasizing the necessity of multilateralism to address global challenges [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce highlighted that multilateralism is essential for overcoming challenges, asserting that economic globalization cannot be halted by "de-globalization" [3] - The forum discussed the importance of strengthening communication and cooperation among countries to maintain a resilient and sustainable global supply chain [3] Group 3 - Reforming the WTO is crucial for leading global trade restructuring, as the multilateral trade system is the foundation of international trade [4] - China is a significant engine for global economic growth, contributing approximately 30% to world economic growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4] - The WTO Deputy Director-General emphasized the resilience of the multilateral trade system and the need for member cooperation to maintain its authority and relevance [4] Group 4 - Experts at the forum stressed the importance of the WTO in rewriting balanced trade rules and enhancing its institutional capacity to combat unilateralism [5] - There is a consensus that a rules-based multilateral trade system provides stability and predictability for global trade, and reforms are necessary to keep the rules up to date [5] - Participants expressed hope for China to play a more active role in improving the global governance system and promoting common development [5]

Core Points - The U.S. government has resolved an 8-month stalemate with the WTO regarding its membership fees, paying over $25 million in overdue fees despite previous criticisms of the organization by the Trump administration [1][2] - The U.S. is required to pay 11% of the WTO's annual budget, which amounts to approximately $25.7 million for 2024, and has communicated to WTO staff that the payment has been made, thus avoiding administrative penalties [2][4] - The U.S. continues to block the appointment of judges to the WTO's appellate body, which has been inoperative since 2019, and has been criticized for selectively enforcing dispute settlement rulings [3][4] Group 1 - The U.S. has paid its overdue fees to the WTO, which had been in a first-class arrears status, allowing the organization to maintain its daily operations [1][2] - The payment alleviates some budget pressure on the WTO, which had to reduce activities and technical assistance to developing countries due to financial constraints [5][6] - Despite the payment, the U.S. remains resistant to restoring the appellate body, indicating a lack of comprehensive support for the WTO [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. has been involved in a selective execution of WTO dispute settlement rulings, leading to a significant number of cases where the U.S. has been criticized for non-compliance [3][6] - Experts suggest that the U.S. is participating in the WTO in a manner that serves its interests rather than committing to a fundamental change in strategy [4][5] - The ongoing discussions about WTO reform are contentious, especially with the upcoming ministerial meeting in March 2026 [5][6]

Core Points - The U.S. has resolved an eight-month deadlock with the WTO by paying approximately $25.7 million in overdue fees, despite previous criticisms of the organization by the Trump administration [1][3] - The payment ensures that the U.S. is no longer subject to administrative measures for overdue fees, which could have included various penalties [3][6] - The U.S. is still not restoring the WTO's appellate body, which has been paralyzed since 2019 due to the U.S. blocking the appointment of new judges [3][5] Financial Obligations - The U.S. is required to pay 11% of the WTO's annual budget, which is approximately 205 million Swiss Francs (around $25.7 million) for 2024 [3] - The overdue fees had significant implications for the WTO's operations, leading to budget constraints and a reduction in technical assistance to developing countries [6][7] U.S. Participation in WTO - Despite the payment, the U.S. continues to undermine the WTO's dispute resolution capabilities by blocking the selection of appellate body members [4][5] - The U.S. is engaging in WTO technical work at an administrative level, indicating a selective approach to participation rather than a fundamental strategy shift [6][7] - Experts suggest that the U.S. payment is more about maintaining control over the WTO rather than a genuine commitment to reforming the organization [6][7]

Group 1 - China's Prime Minister Li Qiang announced that China will not seek any new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations, reflecting a proactive stance in the ongoing US-China rivalry [1][3] - The US has pressured China for three years regarding its developing country status, arguing that as the world's second-largest economy, China should not enjoy preferential treatment [2][3] - China's strategic response effectively neutralized US criticisms, allowing it to maintain its core interests while demonstrating flexibility in its approach to international trade [3][4] Group 2 - This move by China serves three strategic objectives: it eliminates a key point of attack from the US, allows China to participate in global rule-making on more equal terms, and showcases its role as a responsible major power [4][7] - The timing of this adjustment is significant, as it coincides with a deadlock in WTO reforms, potentially revitalizing discussions and enhancing China's international standing [4][7] - China's average tariff has decreased to 4.4%, nearing levels seen in developed countries, indicating its commitment to aligning with global trade standards [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Director-General of WTO, Iweala, welcomed China's announcement that it will no longer seek Special and Differential Treatment (S&DT) in future WTO agreements, highlighting its commitment to a more balanced and fair global trade system [1] Group 1 - Iweala expressed appreciation for China's decision, stating it represents a critical moment for the WTO [1] - The decision is seen as a strong signal supporting WTO reform and will contribute to creating a fairer competitive environment for all members [1] - This move is expected to stimulate discussions and assist in building a more flexible and efficient WTO for the 21st century [1]

Group 1 - Brazilian President Lula will convene a virtual meeting of BRICS leaders to discuss Trump's tariffs and trade policies [1] - The meeting aims to defend multilateralism, a core agenda for BRICS, and will also address the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference [1] - Lula seeks to rally support from other emerging market leaders against the tariffs imposed by the US, which have created challenges for BRICS nations in reaching a unified statement [1][2] Group 2 - Brazil's Foreign Minister Vieira stated that the Lula administration is pushing for WTO reform, highlighting concerns over the deteriorating multilateral trade system [2] - Brazil has engaged in dialogues with countries affected by US tariffs, including China, India, Mexico, and France, to address the asymmetry in bilateral negotiations under pressure from stronger nations [2] - The upcoming BRICS meeting follows significant discussions between Indian and Chinese leaders, suggesting potential for a more substantial resolution on tariff issues among BRICS nations [2]

Core Points - The core argument of the articles revolves around the recent confrontation between China and the United States at the WTO meeting in Geneva, highlighting China's stance against the U.S.'s unilateral trade policies and the support it received from 47 countries for multilateralism [1][3][5]. Group 1: China's Position - China submitted a written proposal emphasizing that the U.S.'s "reciprocal tariff" policy violates WTO rules and harms developing countries' interests, potentially destabilizing the global trade system [1][3]. - The Chinese delegation articulated the need for a stable, rule-based international economic order, advocating for transparency and predictability in trade policies to avoid unnecessary market disruptions [5][7]. - China proposed three main directions: prioritizing stability, focusing on development, and pushing for reform within the WTO to address outdated rules and new challenges [5][7]. Group 2: International Support and Reactions - A total of 47 countries supported China's and other nations' joint statement on maintaining the multilateral trade system, indicating a collective response to the challenges posed by unilateral actions [3][7]. - Countries like Brazil, Russia, and Pakistan expressed concerns over unilateralism and emphasized the need to strengthen the authority of WTO rules [3][5]. - The EU and Japan have also criticized U.S. policies, indicating a growing discontent among traditional allies regarding America's approach to trade [3][5]. Group 3: Challenges Ahead - Despite the consensus achieved at the Geneva meeting, WTO reform faces significant challenges, particularly due to the U.S.'s obstruction of the appellate body and the divergent interests of member countries on new issues [7]. - The EU highlighted the costs associated with the current chaotic global tariff system, underscoring the urgency for reform to prevent the multilateral trade system from becoming ineffective [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's proactive stance at the WTO meeting, emphasizing the need for multilateral trade system support and reform in response to unilateral trade measures, particularly from the U.S. [3][8][11] Group 1: China's Proposal and Work Philosophy - China submitted a written proposal titled "Statement on Supporting the Multilateral Trade System under Current Circumstances," expressing concerns over unilateral tariffs and suggesting collective responses from WTO members [3][8]. - The proposed work philosophy is summarized as "Stability First, Development Priority, Reform as the Path" (SDR), advocating for a stable trade environment and deeper WTO reforms [7][10]. Group 2: Key Recommendations from China - Stability First: China calls for unity among members to stabilize trade relations, enhance policy transparency, and ensure adherence to WTO rules to prevent trade tensions from escalating [9][10]. - Development Priority: China urges members to open markets to the least developed countries and support initiatives that provide effective assistance to developing members [10]. - Reform as the Path: China supports comprehensive WTO reforms, addressing contemporary trade issues such as climate change and supply chain resilience, while promoting new rule negotiations [10][11]. Group 3: Global Trade Impact and Responses - Unilateral tariffs and "reciprocal tariffs" are seen as serious threats to the legitimate rights of WTO members, potentially reducing global GDP growth by 0.7% to 7% and disproportionately affecting weaker economies [8][10]. - The WTO spokesperson highlighted that members can utilize the dispute resolution mechanism if they feel WTO rules are violated, indicating a pathway for addressing grievances [4][8]. Group 4: Support from Other Members - China's proposal received widespread resonance among other WTO members, including Brazil, Russia, and Pakistan, who echoed the need to uphold the most-favored-nation principle and strengthen the multilateral trade system [3][8][10]. - The WTO Director-General emphasized the necessity for meaningful reforms, indicating that incremental changes are no longer sufficient to address the challenges facing the organization [13][15].