全球金融和贸易秩序重构

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重塑布雷顿森林体系委员会执行董事马克·乌赞答每经问:当前正是重塑全球经济平衡的关键时机 中国需推动经济向内需驱动转型
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-17 18:24
Core Viewpoint - The Bretton Woods system, established 80 years ago, is facing calls for reform due to rising tensions and concerns regarding its framework, particularly in light of the shifting global economic power dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: Reasons for Reform - The shift in global economic power, particularly the rise of China and other emerging markets like Brazil and South Africa, has led to demands for greater representation in international institutions [5]. - The current governance framework is perceived as monopolistic, with leadership positions in key institutions like the IMF and World Bank traditionally held by representatives from Europe and the U.S. [5]. - There is a need for diversification and reform to ensure the legitimacy of international institutions, especially as China seeks to play a more significant role in global governance [5][6]. Group 2: U.S. and Global Economic Dynamics - The U.S. is questioning the post-World War II international order, suggesting it may no longer be suitable, which calls for a rebalancing of global governance and economic structures [6]. - The current U.S. financial policies are marked by uncertainty, which could impact the dynamics between the dollar, the yuan, and U.S.-China relations [6][8]. - A fundamental issue in global trade is the heavy reliance on the U.S. market, indicating potential systemic problems within the global trade framework [7]. Group 3: Path to Economic Rebalancing - A significant adjustment is deemed necessary, with China focusing on expanding domestic demand, while the U.S. should aim to reduce consumption and increase savings [7]. - Multilateral institutions are expected to play a crucial role in advising major economic players like the Eurozone, China, and the U.S. on achieving economic rebalancing [8]. - Recent global crises, including the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, have led to inflationary pressures, raising questions about the permanence of these inflationary trends [8].