2026年2月，特朗普刚刚重返白宫，依旧高喊着对华强硬的口号，突然却做出了180度的转变。白宫接连 释放出缓和信号，并且已经敲定了4月访华的行程。美国主流媒体也不无感慨地表示，未来美对华的博 弈将不再是单纯的对抗，而是仅剩合作一条路。这个转变究竟意味着什么？是为了权宜之计，还是全球 格局正在悄然重构？ 特朗普重返白宫之初，延续了前任政府的强硬对华政策，试图通过极限施压迫使中国做出让步。一场大 规模的关税战随即爆发。然而，现实给了特朗普沉重的一击。中国精准而有力的反制，直接戳中了美国 的软肋。中国加强关键原材料出口管制、持续抛售美债、暂停进口部分美国农产品等一系列举措，让美 国农业陷入滞销困境，金融市场出现波动，民众的不满情绪逐步上升。而更加雪上加霜的是，美国最高 法院以6比3的裁定，判定特朗普政府的关税政策违宪。 这一裁决意味着，美国此前征收的超过1750亿美元的关税失去了法律依据。特朗普政府不仅要面对巨额 诉讼，还需应对国内12个州和数千家企业的反弹。从极限施压到主动求和，美国的困境，归根结底是单 边主义的破产。 美国的单边主义政策不仅未能拉拢盟友，反而让盟友纷纷选择与中国合作。加拿大总理访华后，达成了 2 ...

Group 1: Trade Relations with Africa - China announced a zero-tariff policy for 53 African countries starting May 1, 2026, which includes logistics hubs and green channels [1] - Trade between China and Africa is significant, with annual trade reaching approximately $350 billion, where exports to Africa are $225 billion and imports are $125 billion [4] - Lowering import tariffs on resource products from Africa will reduce domestic manufacturing costs and enhance international competitiveness for China [6] Group 2: Visa Policy Changes - From February 17, 2026, to the end of the year, ordinary passport holders from the UK and Canada will be able to enter China visa-free for up to 30 days [7] - The visa exemption is expected to boost business exchanges, tourism, and cultural interactions between China and these countries [9] - The diplomatic gesture reflects China's strategic flexibility and confidence in fostering international relations [11]

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner, while silver requires attention to spot market changes. The strength analysis indicates a neutral stance for both gold and silver. The price ranges are 1050 - 1150 yuan/gram for gold and 18000 - 25000 yuan/kilogram for silver [3][5]. - The long - term logic for gold remains solid, but there is a lack of short - term drivers around the Chinese New Year, resulting in a wedge - shaped oscillatory convergence pattern in prices. The adjustment of gold is considered relatively sufficient, and the possibility of further decline is low [4]. - For silver, the feedback from the fundamentals after the price drop this week is the core for subsequent price judgment. The contradiction of the tight spot structure is expected to continue until the second quarter. There is still potential for an increase in silver prices, but it depends on factors such as continued retail speculation, pre - April export rush, and no further inventory reduction in the US. There is a trend - based decline opportunity for silver if a second peak appears in the second quarter [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spread - Gold: This week, the spread between London spot gold and COMEX gold主力 rebounded to - 21.99 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 30.1 US dollars/ounce [11]. - Silver: This week, the spread between London spot silver and COMEX silver主力 rebounded to 0.225 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - 0.76 US dollars/ounce [17]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spread - Gold: This week, the domestic gold spot - futures price spread was 1.37 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [20]. - Silver: This week, the domestic silver spot - futures price spread was - 602 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [22]. 3.1.3 Inter - month Spread - Gold: This week, the gold inter - month spread was 6.92 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [26]. - Silver: This week, the silver inter - month spread was 476 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [29]. 3.1.4 Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - Gold: The total cost of cross - month positive arbitrage delivery for buying TD and selling Shanghai gold was 26.74 yuan/gram; for buying Shanghai gold December contract and selling June contract, it was 7.38 yuan/gram [31][32]. - Silver: The total cost of cross - month positive arbitrage delivery for buying TD and selling Shanghai silver was 343.18 yuan/kilogram; for buying Shanghai silver December contract and selling June contract, it was 418.60 yuan/kilogram [33][34]. 3.1.5 Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees for Gold and Silver Spot at Shanghai Gold Exchange This week, for gold at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the deferred fee was mainly paid from long to short, indicating stronger delivery power; for silver, it was mainly paid from short to long, indicating stronger receiving power [35]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - Gold: This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 11 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants rebounded to 51.9%. The domestic gold futures inventory increased by 1.02 tons [37][42]. - Silver: This week, the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 353 tons to 12270 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants declined to 26%. The domestic silver futures inventory decreased by 105 tons to 350 tons [39][42]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - commercial Positions This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold decreased slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver also decreased slightly [44]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - Gold: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF decreased by 10.87 tons, and the domestic gold ETF decreased by 2.4 tons [47]. - Silver: This week, the position of the silver SLV ETF increased by 667 tons [51]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio This week, the gold - silver ratio rebounded from 47 in the previous week to 66.27 [53]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.05%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 5.74% [55]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rates This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [60].

Group 1: U.S. Policy and Global Stability - The current U.S. unilateral policies are undermining global economic trade development and intensifying international conflicts [1][2] - Experts believe that the uncertainty in U.S. domestic politics and policies is a significant factor exacerbating global instability [1][2] - The U.S. has effectively abandoned its responsibilities in global governance, with its tariff policies harming both global supply chains and its own economic structure in the long term [1][2] Group 2: Rise of Right-Wing Populism - Right-wing populist movements are gaining strength in several major Western countries, leading to more emotionally charged national policies [3] - Nationalism is becoming a powerful force, driven by social media, which amplifies populist sentiments and makes international conflicts more unpredictable [3] - The conservative political trend in some countries is worsening exclusionary tendencies, further fragmenting the global economy and complicating regional and global governance [3] Group 3: Ongoing Conflicts and Peace Efforts - The Ukraine crisis remains a significant challenge for regional security, with ongoing military actions failing to achieve strategic goals [4][5] - The complexities of the Israel-Palestine conflict are highlighted, with current ceasefire agreements being fragile and not addressing deeper issues [6] - The overall situation in the Middle East indicates that achieving lasting peace will be difficult, with each subsequent step likely to be more challenging than the last [6] Group 4: Implications for Global Governance - The retreat of unilateralism is fostering a consensus for multilateralism, as countries accelerate their own development and the process of multipolarity [6] - The current international landscape is characterized by turmoil, but there are opportunities for establishing a more balanced global order through cooperative efforts [6]

Group 1 - The global perception is shifting, with a survey indicating that nearly all countries believe the U.S. hegemony is declining and that China will dominate the world in the next decade [1][3] - In South Africa, 83% of respondents expect China's influence to grow, while Brazil and Turkey report 72% and 63% respectively, indicating a widespread acknowledgment of China's rising power even among U.S. citizens, where 54% agree [3] - The survey reveals a significant shift in trust towards China among global South countries, reflecting disappointment in the U.S.-led order and a belief in the inevitability of the East's rise [3] Group 2 - China is recognized for its core hard power, with many EU citizens expecting it to lead in electric vehicles and renewable energy, thus gaining a voice in global industry standards [5] - The West's previous belief in technological superiority as a protective barrier has been challenged, as China now offers a comprehensive suite of low-cost, efficient modern solutions, contrasting with the U.S.'s limited competitive offerings in civilian industries [5] Group 3 - Ukraine and South Korea are notable exceptions in viewing China negatively, driven more by geopolitical tragedies than rational strategic assessments [7] - Ukraine's despair from ongoing conflict has led to a projection of blame onto China for not intervening against Russian aggression, while South Korea's hostility stems from a complex relationship with the U.S. and fears of losing industrial advantages to China [7] - The anxiety in South Korea regarding the loss of key industries to China has manifested as illogical anger towards China, which does not alter the reality of the shifting global landscape [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting narratives between the U.S. and China regarding economic stability, highlighting the recent milestone of China's stock market surpassing 100 trillion yuan, which challenges the U.S. narrative of China's impending economic collapse. Group 1: U.S.-China Economic Relations - U.S. Treasury Secretary's cautious tone reflects a complex understanding of the economic situation, moving away from absolute claims of China's collapse [1][3] - The U.S. needs to portray China as vulnerable to maintain its financial and manufacturing advantages, but real data and capital flows contradict this narrative [3][7] Group 2: Chinese Capital Market Developments - The A-share market crossing the 100 trillion yuan mark signifies a major milestone, indicating that China's market is now a significant player on the global stage [9][10] - The increase in trading volume and institutional investment in China's stock market suggests a recovery in market confidence and a shift away from a retail-driven market [10][13] Group 3: Comparison with U.S. Market - The U.S. stock market is experiencing slower growth and increased volatility, raising concerns about its long-term stability compared to the robust performance of the Chinese market [12][23] - The structural changes in China's market, with a growing presence of institutional investors, pose a challenge to the U.S. capital market's traditional advantages [13][15] Group 4: Debt and Economic Stability - U.S. household debt has reached 18.39 trillion USD, with rising delinquency rates indicating a potential risk to economic stability [17][20] - The contrast between China's market growth and the U.S. debt structure highlights differing economic trajectories, with China's market showing vitality while the U.S. faces increasing financial strain [20][25] Group 5: Global Currency Dynamics - The dollar's dominance in global reserves is declining, while the yuan's share in international payments is gradually increasing, signaling a shift in global financial power [22][23] - The potential for more countries to adopt the yuan for trade could further erode the dollar's supremacy, indicating a move towards a multipolar currency system [23][25]

Group 1 - The 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy report emphasizes a shift of focus back to domestic issues, which may initially suggest a retreat from global strategy, but is actually a carefully designed "retreat to advance" strategy [2][11] - The report indicates a potential reduction in direct U.S. security commitments to Europe, aiming to pressure Europe to take on more defense responsibilities while increasing tensions between Russia and Europe [8][13] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the strategy suggests a dual approach of public retreat and covert provocation, encouraging opportunistic countries to take aggressive actions that could disrupt the long-standing peace in the region [14] Group 2 - The report highlights a significant valuation gap between Chinese and U.S. markets, with China's GDP accounting for about 17% of the global economy, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks represent only 9% and 5% of global market capitalization, respectively [18] - U.S. stock market valuations are seen as high-risk, with the U.S. accounting for approximately 26% of the global economy but nearly 50% of global stock market value, indicating that this pricing may not be sustainable if the unipolar order begins to decline [18] - The report warns of potential geopolitical risks, including the possibility of opportunistic countries taking aggressive actions under U.S. strategic encouragement, which could lead to localized conflicts and impact global supply chains [20]

Core Viewpoint - The first BRICS People's Summit concluded in Rio de Janeiro, focusing on enhancing the role of civil society in global governance and promoting cooperation among Global South countries [1] Group 1: Economic Cooperation and Multilateralism - Over 150 representatives from 21 countries discussed topics such as economic cooperation, multilateralism, and the construction of a multipolar world [1] - The summit emphasized the importance of dialogue and collaboration among BRICS nations to create a fairer global governance system and achieve mutual benefits [1] Group 2: Civil Society Engagement - The Deputy Secretary-General of the China International Exchange Promotion Association highlighted the need for BRICS civil societies to advance the institutionalization of civil society forums [1] - The summit marked the establishment of a permanent dialogue channel between BRICS citizens and governments, as stated by former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff [1] Group 3: Future Initiatives - The BRICS Civil Council, which will be established at the 2024 BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, aims to gather social groups, political parties, intellectuals, and scholars from BRICS countries for civil exchange [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the decline of U.S. influence as South Africa hosts the G20 summit, achieving consensus without U.S. participation for the first time in history [1] - The global governance machinery continues to function without the U.S., indicating a shift in the global economic focus [1] - The narrative of economic "decoupling" promoted by the U.S. is largely unresponsive, with other nations emphasizing connectivity instead [1][2] Group 1 - The G20 summit in South Africa marked a historical moment where consensus was reached without U.S. involvement, suggesting a significant shift in global decision-making dynamics [1] - The absence of the U.S. did not disrupt the summit's proceedings, reflecting a potential transition in the global economic center of gravity [1] - Other countries are increasingly resistant to the ideological and economic constraints of a new Cold War, favoring collaboration over division [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government has increasingly relied on unilateral measures such as secondary sanctions and market entry threats, which are accelerating its influence decline [2] - Each sanction and export ban encourages countries to develop alternative systems and competitive technologies, reinforcing a multipolar world [2] - The repeated use of unilateralism sends a clear message to the world: do not rely on the U.S. [3]