8月中旬，中美刚在欧洲完成新一轮接触，美国财政部长贝森特表态很有意味。他公开说过，谈判"广泛、深入"，现行安排"运作得相当不错"。 几周前，他在右翼媒体活动上抛出一个比喻，用"海明威式的崩溃"来形容大经济体可能走向危机的过程，意思是先慢后快。 可在正式会谈后，贝森特并没有再重复"中国必然崩溃"的定论，他的语气里，有一份小心翼翼的分寸感。 这种反差耐人寻味。一方面，美国内部需要在舆论场上把中国描绘成岌岌可危的样子；另一方面，面对真实的数据和资本流动，美国财政部门又不敢说得太 绝对。 这种"嘴上强硬、心里焦虑"的姿态，反倒说明他们更清楚局势的复杂。 为什么要强调"崩溃"？因为美国觉得只有中国陷入困境，美国的金融与制造优势才能少点威胁。 过去几十年，美国早已习惯用"美元霸权"与"军事霸权"两根支柱维持地位。可眼下，美元的信用体系正在被更复杂的现实冲击。 通胀反复，赤字高企，利率长期居高不下，这些数据，美国自己都难以解释。 当中国资本市场突然给出一个新的信号，美国财政高官的那套叙事就显得格外尴尬。 如果真像他们说的那样，中国经济摇摇欲坠，那为什么资本市场却在冲关？ 今年7月，A股总市值跨过100万亿元大关，这是一个里 ...

美国2025年国家安全战略报告所呈现的"以退为进"，实质是在多极化浪潮中试图重新掌握主动权。对于A股投资者而言，既要警惕短期地缘波动，更应把 握全球资本再配置背景下中国资产的价值重估机遇。 要点 2025美国《国家安全战略》报告基调：表面收缩，实则迂回。 特朗普政府发布的2025年国家安全战略报告，以较大篇幅强调"将重心放回美国本土"，初 读可能给人以美国全球战略"总退却"的印象。然而，深入分析其文本脉络与政策指向，这更像是一种精心设计的"以退为进"策略。 美国对欧洲与亚太地区的"以退为进"。 风险与机遇：美国的"退"是其无奈之举。 我们应当重视这一战略带来的潜在地缘政治风险，但更应看到，这种迂回战略本身，正是美国承认单极格局不 可持续后的无奈之举。这恰恰印证了世界正加速迈向多极化格局的历史进程。 对金融市场的影响：继续看多中国股市，美股存不确定性。 三个风险提示： 风险提示： 地区冲突升级风险；美国国内政治反弹；不确定性对金融市场的冲击。 正文 2025美国《国家安全战略》报告的基本情况及基调 美国《国家安全战略》报告的基本情况。 当地时间2025年12月4日，美国白宫发布了特朗普政府第二任期内的《国家安全 ...

来自21个国家的150多名代表围绕经济合作与多边主义、多极化格局构建、应对全球治理挑战等议 题展开讨论。 金砖国家人民峰会是金砖国家民间理事会的议程之一，该理事会于2024年在俄罗斯喀山举行的金砖 峰会上成立，汇集了金砖各国的社会团体、政党、知识分子和学者，是金砖国家的民间交流机制。 （完） 中国民间组织国际交流促进会（中促会）副秘书长朱桂杰在发言中指出，在当今世界多极化的现实 背景下，金砖国家加强对话协商与合作，对于构建更加公平公正的全球治理、促进国家间实现互利互惠 至关重要。金砖国家民间社会需进一步推进民间社会论坛机制化建设，积极践行金砖精神，为实现金砖 宗旨目标贡献民间力量。 巴西前总统、金砖国家新开发银行行长迪尔玛·罗塞芙在视频致辞中表示，本次会议是金砖国家人 民首次拥有一个常设的与政府对话的渠道。她对与会者说："你们不是旁观者，而是我们想要建设的未 来的缔造者。" 新华社里约热内卢12月4日电（记者赵焱 陈威华）首届金砖国家人民峰会4日在巴西里约热内卢闭 幕。在四天的会议期间，与会人员共同探讨了如何扩大民间力量在全球治理中的参与度，推动全球南方 国家各领域合作。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the decline of U.S. influence as South Africa hosts the G20 summit, achieving consensus without U.S. participation for the first time in history [1] - The global governance machinery continues to function without the U.S., indicating a shift in the global economic focus [1] - The narrative of economic "decoupling" promoted by the U.S. is largely unresponsive, with other nations emphasizing connectivity instead [1][2] Group 1 - The G20 summit in South Africa marked a historical moment where consensus was reached without U.S. involvement, suggesting a significant shift in global decision-making dynamics [1] - The absence of the U.S. did not disrupt the summit's proceedings, reflecting a potential transition in the global economic center of gravity [1] - Other countries are increasingly resistant to the ideological and economic constraints of a new Cold War, favoring collaboration over division [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government has increasingly relied on unilateral measures such as secondary sanctions and market entry threats, which are accelerating its influence decline [2] - Each sanction and export ban encourages countries to develop alternative systems and competitive technologies, reinforcing a multipolar world [2] - The repeated use of unilateralism sends a clear message to the world: do not rely on the U.S. [3]

Core Insights - The report by OMFIF indicates that artificial intelligence (AI) has not yet become a core component of operations for most central banks globally, and digital assets are largely excluded from their investment portfolios [1][3] AI Utilization in Central Banks - A working group consisting of 10 central banks from Europe, Africa, Latin America, and Asia, managing approximately $6.5 trillion in assets, conducted the survey [3] - Over 60% of the surveyed central banks have not utilized AI tools to support their core operations, despite significant layoffs in tech companies and retail investment banks due to AI [3] - The majority of early AI applications are focused on routine analytical tasks rather than critical functions like risk management or portfolio construction [3] - Central banks are primarily using AI for basic tasks such as data summarization and market scanning [3] Digital Assets and Cryptocurrency - A significant 93% of central banks reported no investments in digital assets, maintaining a cautious stance towards cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, despite some interest in asset tokenization [3] Global Reserve Currency Dynamics - The survey reveals a global trend towards a multipolar reserve currency system, prompting central banks to diversify their reserve assets and focus on resilience and liquidity [4] - Nearly 60% of the surveyed central banks expressed a desire to reduce their reliance on the US dollar, although the unmatched liquidity of US Treasury securities continues to support the dollar's dominant position [4] - The report notes that while the euro and Chinese yuan may benefit from the current geopolitical climate, the dollar is expected to maintain its leading role in foreign exchange reserves for the foreseeable future [4]

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly focusing on the fluctuations in the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Theme Index and the significant developments in the rare earth materials sector, which could impact investment opportunities in the future [1][3][4]. Market Performance - As of November 24, 2025, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Theme Index (000811) decreased by 1.95%, with mixed performances among constituent stocks [1]. - Notable gainers included Huaxi Nonferrous (600301) up 6.95%, Huayu Mining (601020) up 5.16%, and Xiyue Co. (000960) up 1.81% [1]. - Conversely, Guocheng Mining (000688) led the declines with a drop of 10.00%, followed by Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) down 9.99% and Tianqi Lithium (002466) down 9.15% [1]. - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) fell by 1.94%, with a latest price of 1.41 yuan, but showed a 22.97% increase over the past three months as of November 21 [1]. Fund Flow and Liquidity - The Nonferrous 50 ETF saw a turnover of 1.68% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 48.4455 million yuan [1]. - Over the past two weeks, the ETF's scale increased by 120 million yuan, reaching a new high of 2.025 billion shares [3]. - The latest net inflow for the ETF was 183 million yuan, with a total of 271 million yuan net inflow over the last five trading days [3]. Technological Advancements - A breakthrough research achievement by universities in China and Singapore was published in Nature, addressing the efficient electroluminescence of insulating rare earth nanocrystals, which could transform China's rare earth resource strategy from raw material export to high-value technology output [3]. - This technology demonstrated a 76-fold increase in electroluminescent device efficiency and the ability to achieve full-spectrum emission through rare earth ion modulation [3]. Future Outlook - The outlook for industrial metals suggests that supply constraints will drive copper prices upward, while the profitability of electrolytic aluminum is expected to improve [6]. - The gold market is anticipated to continue its bullish trend, with silver showing greater elasticity due to macroeconomic factors such as interest rate cycles and global trade tensions [6]. - The lithium market is experiencing adjustments due to price drops affecting high-cost production, while demand from the electric vehicle sector remains strong [6]. - Tungsten, as a strategic metal, is expected to see price increases due to supply constraints and growing demand in emerging sectors [7]. Investment Opportunities - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its high "gold-copper content" at 46%, leading in its category [7]. - The ETF focuses on core strategic metals with high demand and supply gaps, featuring a high concentration of leading companies [7]. - The ETF has shown superior performance with a cumulative return leading its peers since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation increases [8].

Group 1: Technological Developments - The United States has historically dominated technology sectors such as chip manufacturing, aerospace, internet development, and artificial intelligence, but China has made significant advancements in these areas over the past decade [3][6] - China's increased investment in technology research and development, along with proactive policy adjustments, has led to substantial achievements in key technology fields, showcasing its independent R&D capabilities and international competitiveness [3][4] - The technological innovation chain in China has gradually formed and improved, narrowing the gap with global advanced levels and establishing a robust technological capability system [3][4] Group 2: Military Dynamics - The traditional military dominance of the United States is being challenged, particularly highlighted by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, where Russia's military actions have not yielded the expected results from Western sanctions [8][10] - The effectiveness of U.S. military interventions is diminishing as countries like Russia demonstrate resilience and strategic determination, altering the landscape of global military engagement [10][16] - The cost and complexity of military interventions have increased, leading to greater uncertainty for the U.S. in achieving its objectives through military means [10][16] Group 3: Financial Landscape - Despite challenges in technology and military, the U.S. dollar remains a cornerstone of American influence in global affairs, with its dominance in trade, investment, and settlement systems [12][14] - China and Russia are actively promoting the international use of their currencies, which poses a long-term threat to the dollar's supremacy, as more countries may opt for alternative currencies for trade settlements [12][14] - The U.S. strategy of using financial sanctions as a diplomatic tool has raised concerns among other nations, prompting them to seek alternatives to mitigate risks associated with U.S. financial policies [14][16] Group 4: Global Power Shift - The world is transitioning from a unipolar to a multipolar structure, with the U.S. losing its monopoly in technology and military while still relying on dollar dominance [4][16] - The ongoing changes indicate a shift towards a more balanced and diverse global development landscape, where countries are encouraged to enhance their influence and cooperation [18] - The future international order will depend on which nations can adapt and prepare effectively for the emerging multipolar dynamics [18]

Group 1 - The core idea presented is the emergence of a "G2 era," dominated by the economic powers of China and the United States, sidelining other nations like Russia, Europe, and Japan [1][13] - The combined GDP of China and the U.S. accounted for nearly half of the global total last year, highlighting their role as the dual engines of the global economy [2][12] - Economic actions or changes between China and the U.S. significantly impact the global economy, as seen during the trade war, leading to worldwide economic fluctuations [4][6] Group 2 - The sustainability of the G2 status is likely for the next few decades unless significant economic issues arise in either country, with China potentially surpassing the U.S. as the largest economy [6][12] - Political and diplomatic autonomy is crucial for maintaining the G2 position, which is a comparative weakness for Russia, Europe, and Japan [6][7][9] - Russia's economy is heavily reliant on energy exports, making it vulnerable to sanctions and conflicts, as evidenced by the impact of the Ukraine crisis [6][11] Group 3 - Europe and Japan lack political independence, often acting under U.S. influence, which limits their ability to emerge as global powers [7][9] - The G2 structure has gradually formed since the end of the Soviet Union, with the U.S. becoming the sole superpower, while other nations have struggled to achieve a multipolar world [11][13] - The acknowledgment of China's rise by U.S. figures like Trump reflects a significant shift in global power dynamics, moving away from U.S. dominance alone [13]

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund's latest prediction indicates that China's GDP will exceed $40 trillion this year, making it the world's largest economy, while the U.S. GDP stands at $30.51 trillion [2] - The concept of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is used to eliminate the effects of currency fluctuations and price levels, providing a clearer picture of a country's actual production capacity and consumer purchasing power [4] - China's economy is heavily rooted in substantial and complete industrial sectors, with significant contributions in steel (over 60% of global production), cement (50%), and home appliances (30%) [6] Group 2 - The PPP method reveals a new global economic landscape, with China and the U.S. together accounting for over one-third of the global economy, while emerging economies like India, Russia, and Indonesia are rising in prominence [8][10] - By 2025, Asia's GDP is expected to account for 48.6% of the global economy, indicating a shift in economic growth towards the East [10] - China's semiconductor market is projected to exceed $180 billion, capturing 30% of the global market, showcasing its technological self-reliance [12] Group 3 - Trade with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative has reached 42.2% of China's total foreign trade, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN, the Middle East, and Africa [14] - The U.S. faces structural challenges, including a national debt exceeding $37 trillion and rising inflation, which is eroding consumer purchasing power [16] - The PPP forecast for 2025 signifies a shift towards a development model that emphasizes the connection between economic growth and improvements in living standards [18][20]

Group 1 - The core message of the event is to reignite the hope from 80 years ago and to unite in facing global challenges, as emphasized by UN Secretary-General António Guterres [1][3] - Guterres highlighted unprecedented challenges facing the UN, including attacks on civilians in Gaza, Ukraine, and Sudan, as well as the spread of poverty and hunger, and climate crises causing disasters [3] - The importance of strengthening the UN and reshaping international cooperation is underscored, with references to the "2030 Agenda," "Future Pact," and the UN's 80th anniversary initiative [3] Group 2 - UN General Assembly President Annalena Baerbock stressed that this moment is not for celebration but for remembering lessons and choosing hope, urging nations to opt for dialogue over division [3] - The theme of the current UN General Assembly is "Working Together," which conveys a timeless truth about the importance of collaboration for a better future [3]