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北大西洋公约组织:《2025-2045年科学与技术趋势报告》
欧米伽未来研究所2025· 2025-11-11 01:21
Core Viewpoint - The NATO Science and Technology Organization's report emphasizes that science and technology (S&T) is becoming a core driver of strategic decision-making and shaping global competition, rather than merely a tool for geopolitical empowerment [2][3]. Group 1: Macro Trends - The report identifies six interrelated macro trends that will shape the strategic environment for NATO over the next 20 years, indicating a future that is increasingly complex and uncertain due to technological advancements [4]. - The first trend is the evolving competition landscape, highlighting the importance of space and cyber domains, with warnings about the potential for an arms race in space and increased gray zone attacks in cyberspace [4][5]. - The second trend focuses on the competition for artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum advantages, noting that the U.S. leads in R&D spending but China is rapidly catching up, particularly in AI research output [5]. - The third trend is the biotechnology revolution, with synthetic biology expected to drive the next technological cycle, presenting both revolutionary opportunities and significant risks, including the potential for new biological weapons [6]. - The fourth trend addresses the resource gap, where technological advancements increase demand for rare materials, leading to geopolitical tensions and potential resource cartels [7]. - The fifth trend discusses the decline of public trust in science and institutions, exacerbated by AI's role in spreading misinformation, which could lead to fragmented internet environments [8]. - The sixth trend highlights the integration and dependency on technology, raising challenges related to interoperability and the reliance on small and medium enterprises for military technology [9]. Group 2: Strategic Recommendations - The report calls for NATO leaders to strengthen technological cooperation among like-minded nations, emphasizing that no single country can achieve technological superiority alone [10]. - It stresses the need to balance open research with research security, particularly in high-risk areas like biotechnology, advocating for global biosafety standards [10]. - The report also highlights the importance of ethical considerations and legal safeguards in the development of AI and biotechnology, urging NATO to prioritize these aspects to build trust [11].