Core Viewpoint - The Chinese National Climate Center predicts that this winter will not be a "super cold winter," with temperatures expected to be close to or warmer than the historical average, but with significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods [1][2] Summary by Relevant Sections Temperature Predictions - The average winter temperature across China is expected to be near the historical average to slightly warmer, with notable phase characteristics indicating significant temperature swings [1] - The definition of a cold or warm winter requires that more than half of the meteorological observation stations meet the respective temperature standards [1] Historical Context - Since the 1990s, China has experienced six cold winters, all occurring before 2012 [1] - The occurrence of La Niña events typically correlates with a higher probability of lower temperatures in China during winter months from December to February [1] Influencing Factors - The current state of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean is cooler than the historical average, indicating a developing La Niña condition [1] - Global warming has led to frequent occurrences of warmer winters in China, even during La Niña years, as seen in the winter of 2020/2021 [2] - The winter climate in China is influenced by multiple factors, including tropical sea temperature anomalies, Arctic sea ice, snow cover, and mid-to-high latitude atmospheric circulation systems [2] Climate Change Implications - There is a clear trend of increasing average winter temperatures in China, with Arctic temperatures rising significantly more than those in tropical and subtropical regions [2] - The reduction in temperature differences between mid-latitudes is causing more extreme fluctuations in winter temperatures in China, necessitating close monitoring of severe temperature changes and their impacts on daily life and production [2]