来源：新华社 1月9日，中国科学院大气物理研究所等全球31个研究单位的56位科学家组成的国际研究团队发布了2025年全球海温变化的研究报告。报告表 明，2025年全球海洋上层2000米热含量已连续9年刷新有观测记录以来的最高值；同时，全球平均海表温度位居历史第三高位，全球变暖趋势 十分明确。 海洋吸收了人类活动引起的地球系统增暖中超过90%的热量，因此，海洋热含量被认为是衡量全球变暖最稳定、最可靠的指标之一。2025年全 球海洋上层2000米热含量再度创下历史新高，延续了近九年来逐年破纪录的特征。 全球海洋上层2000米热含量变化时间序列，异常值相对于1981至2010年平均气候态定义。（中国科学院大气物理研究所提供） 2025年，全球平均海表温度相较2024年略有回落，但仍位居历史第三的高位，这一变化主要受到拉尼娜事件的影响，海洋热量从近表层向次表 层输送。 海洋持续变暖已对海洋生态系统和人类社会造成深远影响。例如，更暖以及层化更强的海洋降低了海水中的溶解氧含量，增加了海洋热浪和珊 瑚白化风险，进而加剧了对渔业、海洋生态系统稳定性及沿海地区可持续发展的压力。 与此同时，新增的海洋热含量通过热膨胀效应，对全球 ...

Group 1 - The current La Niña state is characterized by cooler sea temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, leading to concerns about a cold winter, with some suggesting it could be a "super cold winter" [1] - La Niña state does not equate to a La Niña event; a La Niña event is recognized only when the state persists for more than five months [1] - La Niña influences weather patterns by cooling the eastern Pacific and warming the western Pacific, resulting in drier conditions in the east and wetter conditions in the west [1] Group 2 - The probability of a winter similar to the severe cold disaster of 2008 is low, as this year features a La Niña state rather than a stronger La Niña event [2] - Predictions indicate that this winter will have normal to slightly stronger winds, with unfavorable conditions for widespread low-temperature rain and snow events [2] - The analysis suggests significant temperature fluctuations in Guangxi this winter, with potential for extreme low temperatures and reduced precipitation, leading to possible meteorological droughts [2]

Group 1 - The La Niña phenomenon is characterized by a significant and sustained cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which can lead to various climate impacts [3] - The current La Niña state is expected to last until early 2026, but it is unlikely to develop into a La Niña event due to its duration being less than five months [3] - The average precipitation in Liaoning since the beginning of winter is 2.0 mm, which is 60% lower than the normal level, while the average temperature is -5.7°C, slightly lower than the historical average [3] Group 2 - La Niña years typically result in lower temperatures and increased precipitation in Liaoning, leading to a higher probability of extreme weather events such as cold waves and heavy rainfall [5] - The agricultural sector may face challenges due to snow and low temperatures affecting facility agriculture, while the energy sector must prepare for increased heating demand and potential peak energy usage [5] - The transportation sector needs to develop emergency plans to mitigate the impacts of rain, snow, and icy conditions on road traffic [5]

Core Viewpoint - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to persist until early 2026, with a low probability of developing into a full La Niña event due to its anticipated duration being less than five months [2][3]. Group 1: La Niña Status and Predictions - The La Niña state was observed in October 2025 and is projected to last until early 2026 [2]. - The likelihood of this La Niña state evolving into a full La Niña event is relatively low, as it is expected to last less than five months [3]. Group 2: Weather Impacts on China - This winter, most regions in China are expected to experience temperatures close to or above the historical average, with significant fluctuations in temperature [4]. - The overall precipitation across the country is anticipated to be below average, with a spatial distribution of "more in the north, less in the south" [4]. Group 3: Regional Preparations and Risks - Regions such as Northeast, North China, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang may face severe weather events, including strong winds, temperature drops, and snowfall, necessitating preparations for potential agricultural and energy supply impacts [5]. - Areas in Southeast and East China are at risk of winter-spring droughts due to higher temperatures and lower precipitation, suggesting a need for improved water resource management [5]. - The significant temperature fluctuations may affect public health, particularly respiratory and cardiovascular conditions, requiring attention to health impacts [5].

Core Viewpoint - The current La Niña state in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific is expected to persist until early 2026, with a low probability of forming a significant La Niña event due to its duration being less than five months [1]. Group 1: La Niña State Definition and Duration - The La Niña state is defined by the NINO3.4 index, which indicates that when the three-month sliding average of sea surface temperature anomalies is less than or equal to -0.5 degrees Celsius, it is considered a La Niña state [1]. - The National Climate Center reports that as of December 15, the La Niña state is ongoing, and its duration is currently less than five months, making the likelihood of a significant La Niña event relatively low [1]. Group 2: Impacts of La Niña State - The ongoing La Niña state is expected to lead to colder temperatures in central and eastern China during winter, as the prevailing cyclonic circulation enhances the winter monsoon [1]. - There is a historical trend of warmer winter temperatures in China under La Niña conditions, with instances of warm winters occurring, such as in the winter of 2020/2021 [2]. - The cyclonic circulation may also suppress moisture transport from the northwest Pacific and South China Sea, leading to reduced precipitation and an increased risk of drought during the winter and spring [2]. Group 3: Weather Predictions for Winter - This winter, most regions in China are expected to experience temperatures close to or above the seasonal average, with significant fluctuations and frequent cold and warm events [2]. - Overall precipitation is anticipated to be below average, with a spatial distribution of "more in the north, less in the south" [2]. - Specific regions such as Northeast China, North China, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang may experience strong winds, significant temperature drops, and snowfall, while southern regions may face risks of drought due to low temperatures and reduced precipitation [2].

Group 1: La Niña Phenomenon - The La Niña phenomenon refers to the significant and sustained cooling of sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean, with China entering a La Niña state in October this year [1] - La Niña state does not equate to a La Niña event; a La Niña event is defined by the NINO 3.4 index remaining below -0.5 degrees Celsius for five consecutive months [2] - The probability of a double La Niña event occurring this winter is low, despite the ongoing La Niña state having some impact on China's climate [2] Group 2: Impact on Weather Patterns - La Niña directly influences weather by generating a cyclonic circulation anomaly over the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, leading to prevailing northeast winds that suppress moisture transport to eastern and southern China, potentially causing drought conditions [4] - The expected winter conditions in regions like East and South China may lead to prolonged dry spells, particularly in the winter-spring period [4] Group 3: Freezing Rain and Its Effects - Freezing rain is a hazardous winter weather phenomenon where liquid rain freezes upon contact with surfaces below 0 degrees Celsius, posing risks to transportation, power supply, and daily life [5] - The formation of freezing rain requires two key conditions: sufficiently low temperatures (between -8 to 0 degrees Celsius near the ground) and the presence of precipitation [7] - Freezing rain can lead to the formation of ice layers on power lines and trees, increasing the risk of power outages and damage to vegetation [10] Group 4: Regional Analysis of Freezing Rain - Guizhou province experiences the highest frequency of freezing rain in China, with the winter months from December to February being the peak period for such weather [13] - This winter, the probability of widespread freezing rain in Guizhou is expected to be lower than usual, with average temperatures projected at 7.1 degrees Celsius [15] - The distribution of freezing rain in Guizhou shows a pattern where western regions experience more occurrences due to higher altitudes and stable weather systems [16][18]

Core Viewpoint - The National Climate Center of China predicts that a La Niña event will occur in late autumn and last until early 2026, with a lower probability of forming a significant La Niña event due to its shorter duration [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Temperature Predictions** - The average national temperature during winter is expected to be close to or above the historical average, with significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods [1] - **Precipitation Forecast** - Overall precipitation is expected to be below average, with a "more in the north, less in the south" distribution pattern. Regions in southern China are likely to experience less rainfall [1] - **Weather Risks** - The risk of widespread and prolonged low-temperature rain, snow, and ice events in southern regions is generally low [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding whether this winter will be cold or warm, emphasizing that definitive conclusions can only be drawn after the season ends [2][4]. Summary by Sections Climate Predictions - The determination of a cold or warm winter is based on the average temperature over three months, with specific criteria for single stations, regional, and national assessments [2]. - Since the 1990s, China has experienced six cold winters, all occurring before 2012 [2]. Current Weather Conditions - Recent monitoring indicates that average temperatures in regions such as northern Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, and Jianghan are 1°C to 3°C lower than the same period in previous years, with some areas experiencing drops of 4°C to 5°C [3]. Influencing Factors - The current state of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean is cooler than usual, potentially leading to a La Niña phenomenon, which historically correlates with lower temperatures in China during winter [4]. - Despite the likelihood of a colder winter, global warming has led to instances of warmer winters even during La Niña years, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting winter temperatures [4]. Extreme Weather Events - The article highlights that extreme cold waves can occur even in warmer winters, as public perception is often influenced by significant temperature fluctuations rather than average temperatures [4][6]. - The phenomenon of extreme cold waves is explained by the weakening of the westerly winds due to global warming, allowing polar air to move southward more easily [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unpredictability of winter temperatures in China, highlighting that while this winter is expected to be warmer overall, significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods are anticipated [1][4]. Summary by Sections Winter Temperature Predictions - The classification of a winter as "cold" or "warm" is determined post-season based on average temperatures across various meteorological stations, with specific criteria for national, regional, and single-station assessments [2][3]. - The article notes that since the 1990s, China has experienced six cold winters, all occurring before 2012 [2]. Current Temperature Trends - Recent monitoring indicates that average temperatures in regions such as northern Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, and Jianghan have been 1°C to 3°C lower than the same period in previous years, with some areas experiencing drops of 4°C to 5°C [3]. Influencing Factors - The article mentions that the current state of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean is cooler than usual, which may lead to a La Niña event, typically associated with lower temperatures in China during winter [4]. - However, the impact of global warming has led to instances of warmer winters even during La Niña years, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting winter temperatures [4][6]. Extreme Weather Events - The article explains that despite the overall warming trend, extreme cold events can still occur due to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, particularly the weakening of the westerly winds that usually contain polar air [5][6]. - This phenomenon suggests that global warming can coexist with severe cold spells, leading to more pronounced temperature fluctuations during winter [6].

Core Viewpoint - A significant cold air mass is affecting China, leading to a sharp drop in temperatures across various regions, raising concerns about whether this winter will be colder than usual [1][8]. Summary by Sections Cold Air Impact - From October 16 to 21, a strong cold air mass moved southward, causing temperature drops of over 10°C in some areas. On October 20, the temperature in Beijing's southern suburbs reached -0.5°C [1]. - The cold air's influence is expected to continue, with another cold front forecasted to affect northern regions starting October 25 [3]. Meteorological Analysis - The Arctic pressure changes and mid-latitude pressure variations are linked, known as the Arctic Oscillation. A shift from a positive to a negative phase has allowed cold air to spread southward [1]. - The persistent strong western and northern subtropical high has contributed to continuous low temperatures in northern China due to the interaction with warm, moist air [2]. Future Weather Predictions - The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that from October 25 to 27, regions such as Inner Mongolia, North China, and Northeast China will experience winds of 4-6 levels, with local gusts reaching 9 levels and temperature drops of 4-6°C, with some areas seeing drops exceeding 8°C [6]. - Rain and snow are expected in various regions from October 29 to 31, with temperature decreases anticipated [6]. Winter Temperature Outlook - Current forecasts suggest that this winter's temperatures will be close to or slightly warmer than the historical average, but with significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods [8]. - The occurrence of La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific may increase the likelihood of lower temperatures during the winter months, although global warming has led to instances of warmer winters even during La Niña years [10].