Core Viewpoint - The winter of 2025-2026 has experienced higher than average temperatures across most of China, with the national average temperature recorded at -2.1°C, which is 1.5°C higher than the historical average, marking the second highest since 1961 [1][3]. Temperature Distribution - Most regions in China, except for parts of northern Northeast China, northeastern Inner Mongolia, and western Yunnan, have temperatures close to or above the historical average. Hubei and Hunan provinces recorded the highest temperatures since 1961, while Shandong, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Jiangxi, and Henan provinces recorded the second highest [3]. Causes of Higher Temperatures - The higher temperatures are attributed to a weak polar vortex and a lack of blocking high pressure in the Ural Mountains, leading to a weaker East Asian winter monsoon. This results in a reduced intensity of cold air affecting China, with its path shifting north and east [3][4]. - Additionally, the weakened subtropical high in the western Pacific and the Indian-Myanmar trough have led to less tropical moisture being transported to China, contributing to lower precipitation in southern regions [3][4]. Relation to La Niña - The current winter's higher temperatures are linked to global warming trends rather than La Niña events, which historically have been associated with lower temperatures in China. Since 1961, the average winter temperature in China has increased at a rate of 0.4°C per decade [4]. Impacts of Higher Temperatures - Health impacts include increased activity of pathogens, potentially raising the risk of infectious diseases in spring. Fluctuating temperatures may exacerbate respiratory and cardiovascular issues, and allergy sufferers may experience earlier symptoms due to pollen release [5]. - In agriculture, higher temperatures benefit the overwintering of crops like winter wheat and rapeseed, but may also lead to early pest outbreaks and increased risk of spring droughts due to accelerated soil moisture evaporation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unusually high winter temperatures in China during the winter of 2025-2026, highlighting the implications for public health and agriculture due to climate change and other meteorological factors [1][4]. Temperature Analysis - The average national temperature from December 1, 2025, to January 13, 2026, was -2.1°C, which is 1.5°C higher than the historical average, marking the second highest since 1961 [1]. - Most regions in China experienced temperatures close to or above the historical average, with Hubei and Hunan provinces recording the highest temperatures since 1961, while five provinces including Shandong and Shaanxi had the second highest [3]. Meteorological Factors - The high winter temperatures are attributed to a weak polar vortex and reduced cold air intensity, with the paths of cold air shifting north and east [3]. - The weakening of the subtropical high in the western Pacific and the influence of abnormal northeast winds have led to decreased precipitation in southern China, contributing to the overall rise in temperatures [3][4]. Climate Change Context - The article connects the current winter temperature trends to global warming, noting a consistent increase in average winter temperatures in China at a rate of 0.4°C per decade since 1961 [4]. - The occurrence of warmer winters under La Niña conditions has become more frequent in recent years, indicating a complex interplay of various climatic factors [4]. Public Health Implications - Warmer winter temperatures may increase the activity of pathogens, raising the risk of spring infectious diseases, and could exacerbate respiratory and cardiovascular conditions due to temperature fluctuations [5]. - Recommendations include enhanced monitoring and public awareness to mitigate health risks associated with these temperature changes [5]. Agricultural Impact - Higher temperatures may benefit the overwintering growth of winter wheat and rapeseed, but could also lead to early pest outbreaks and increased risk of spring droughts due to accelerated soil moisture evaporation [5]. - Experts suggest timely monitoring of pest warnings and irrigation facility maintenance to prevent potential agricultural issues [5].

Core Insights - The international research team, consisting of 56 scientists from 31 research institutions, reported that the global ocean heat content in the upper 2000 meters reached a record high for the ninth consecutive year in 2025, indicating a clear trend of global warming [1] - The global average sea surface temperature ranked third highest in history, with a slight decrease compared to 2024, primarily influenced by the La Niña event [3] Group 1: Ocean Heat Content - The ocean has absorbed over 90% of the heat from human-induced global warming, making ocean heat content a stable and reliable indicator of global warming [1] - In 2025, 57% of the global ocean area reached local historical top five heat content levels, particularly in critical regions such as the Southern Ocean, North Indian Ocean, tropical and South Atlantic, and the Mediterranean Sea [1] Group 2: Impacts on Ecosystems and Sea Level - The ongoing warming of the ocean has profound effects on marine ecosystems and human society, including reduced dissolved oxygen levels, increased risk of marine heatwaves, and coral bleaching [3] - The added ocean heat content contributed approximately 2.49 millimeters to global average sea level rise, exacerbating risks for low-lying coastal areas and coastal infrastructure [3]

Group 1 - The current La Niña state is characterized by cooler sea temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, leading to concerns about a cold winter, with some suggesting it could be a "super cold winter" [1] - La Niña state does not equate to a La Niña event; a La Niña event is recognized only when the state persists for more than five months [1] - La Niña influences weather patterns by cooling the eastern Pacific and warming the western Pacific, resulting in drier conditions in the east and wetter conditions in the west [1] Group 2 - The probability of a winter similar to the severe cold disaster of 2008 is low, as this year features a La Niña state rather than a stronger La Niña event [2] - Predictions indicate that this winter will have normal to slightly stronger winds, with unfavorable conditions for widespread low-temperature rain and snow events [2] - The analysis suggests significant temperature fluctuations in Guangxi this winter, with potential for extreme low temperatures and reduced precipitation, leading to possible meteorological droughts [2]

Group 1 - The La Niña phenomenon is characterized by a significant and sustained cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which can lead to various climate impacts [3] - The current La Niña state is expected to last until early 2026, but it is unlikely to develop into a La Niña event due to its duration being less than five months [3] - The average precipitation in Liaoning since the beginning of winter is 2.0 mm, which is 60% lower than the normal level, while the average temperature is -5.7°C, slightly lower than the historical average [3] Group 2 - La Niña years typically result in lower temperatures and increased precipitation in Liaoning, leading to a higher probability of extreme weather events such as cold waves and heavy rainfall [5] - The agricultural sector may face challenges due to snow and low temperatures affecting facility agriculture, while the energy sector must prepare for increased heating demand and potential peak energy usage [5] - The transportation sector needs to develop emergency plans to mitigate the impacts of rain, snow, and icy conditions on road traffic [5]

Core Viewpoint - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to persist until early 2026, with a low probability of developing into a full La Niña event due to its anticipated duration being less than five months [2][3]. Group 1: La Niña Status and Predictions - The La Niña state was observed in October 2025 and is projected to last until early 2026 [2]. - The likelihood of this La Niña state evolving into a full La Niña event is relatively low, as it is expected to last less than five months [3]. Group 2: Weather Impacts on China - This winter, most regions in China are expected to experience temperatures close to or above the historical average, with significant fluctuations in temperature [4]. - The overall precipitation across the country is anticipated to be below average, with a spatial distribution of "more in the north, less in the south" [4]. Group 3: Regional Preparations and Risks - Regions such as Northeast, North China, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang may face severe weather events, including strong winds, temperature drops, and snowfall, necessitating preparations for potential agricultural and energy supply impacts [5]. - Areas in Southeast and East China are at risk of winter-spring droughts due to higher temperatures and lower precipitation, suggesting a need for improved water resource management [5]. - The significant temperature fluctuations may affect public health, particularly respiratory and cardiovascular conditions, requiring attention to health impacts [5].

Core Viewpoint - The current La Niña state in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific is expected to persist until early 2026, with a low probability of forming a significant La Niña event due to its duration being less than five months [1]. Group 1: La Niña State Definition and Duration - The La Niña state is defined by the NINO3.4 index, which indicates that when the three-month sliding average of sea surface temperature anomalies is less than or equal to -0.5 degrees Celsius, it is considered a La Niña state [1]. - The National Climate Center reports that as of December 15, the La Niña state is ongoing, and its duration is currently less than five months, making the likelihood of a significant La Niña event relatively low [1]. Group 2: Impacts of La Niña State - The ongoing La Niña state is expected to lead to colder temperatures in central and eastern China during winter, as the prevailing cyclonic circulation enhances the winter monsoon [1]. - There is a historical trend of warmer winter temperatures in China under La Niña conditions, with instances of warm winters occurring, such as in the winter of 2020/2021 [2]. - The cyclonic circulation may also suppress moisture transport from the northwest Pacific and South China Sea, leading to reduced precipitation and an increased risk of drought during the winter and spring [2]. Group 3: Weather Predictions for Winter - This winter, most regions in China are expected to experience temperatures close to or above the seasonal average, with significant fluctuations and frequent cold and warm events [2]. - Overall precipitation is anticipated to be below average, with a spatial distribution of "more in the north, less in the south" [2]. - Specific regions such as Northeast China, North China, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang may experience strong winds, significant temperature drops, and snowfall, while southern regions may face risks of drought due to low temperatures and reduced precipitation [2].

Group 1: La Niña Phenomenon - The La Niña phenomenon refers to the significant and sustained cooling of sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean, with China entering a La Niña state in October this year [1] - La Niña state does not equate to a La Niña event; a La Niña event is defined by the NINO 3.4 index remaining below -0.5 degrees Celsius for five consecutive months [2] - The probability of a double La Niña event occurring this winter is low, despite the ongoing La Niña state having some impact on China's climate [2] Group 2: Impact on Weather Patterns - La Niña directly influences weather by generating a cyclonic circulation anomaly over the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, leading to prevailing northeast winds that suppress moisture transport to eastern and southern China, potentially causing drought conditions [4] - The expected winter conditions in regions like East and South China may lead to prolonged dry spells, particularly in the winter-spring period [4] Group 3: Freezing Rain and Its Effects - Freezing rain is a hazardous winter weather phenomenon where liquid rain freezes upon contact with surfaces below 0 degrees Celsius, posing risks to transportation, power supply, and daily life [5] - The formation of freezing rain requires two key conditions: sufficiently low temperatures (between -8 to 0 degrees Celsius near the ground) and the presence of precipitation [7] - Freezing rain can lead to the formation of ice layers on power lines and trees, increasing the risk of power outages and damage to vegetation [10] Group 4: Regional Analysis of Freezing Rain - Guizhou province experiences the highest frequency of freezing rain in China, with the winter months from December to February being the peak period for such weather [13] - This winter, the probability of widespread freezing rain in Guizhou is expected to be lower than usual, with average temperatures projected at 7.1 degrees Celsius [15] - The distribution of freezing rain in Guizhou shows a pattern where western regions experience more occurrences due to higher altitudes and stable weather systems [16][18]

Core Viewpoint - The National Climate Center of China predicts that a La Niña event will occur in late autumn and last until early 2026, with a lower probability of forming a significant La Niña event due to its shorter duration [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Temperature Predictions** - The average national temperature during winter is expected to be close to or above the historical average, with significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods [1] - **Precipitation Forecast** - Overall precipitation is expected to be below average, with a "more in the north, less in the south" distribution pattern. Regions in southern China are likely to experience less rainfall [1] - **Weather Risks** - The risk of widespread and prolonged low-temperature rain, snow, and ice events in southern regions is generally low [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding whether this winter will be cold or warm, emphasizing that definitive conclusions can only be drawn after the season ends [2][4]. Summary by Sections Climate Predictions - The determination of a cold or warm winter is based on the average temperature over three months, with specific criteria for single stations, regional, and national assessments [2]. - Since the 1990s, China has experienced six cold winters, all occurring before 2012 [2]. Current Weather Conditions - Recent monitoring indicates that average temperatures in regions such as northern Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, and Jianghan are 1°C to 3°C lower than the same period in previous years, with some areas experiencing drops of 4°C to 5°C [3]. Influencing Factors - The current state of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean is cooler than usual, potentially leading to a La Niña phenomenon, which historically correlates with lower temperatures in China during winter [4]. - Despite the likelihood of a colder winter, global warming has led to instances of warmer winters even during La Niña years, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting winter temperatures [4]. Extreme Weather Events - The article highlights that extreme cold waves can occur even in warmer winters, as public perception is often influenced by significant temperature fluctuations rather than average temperatures [4][6]. - The phenomenon of extreme cold waves is explained by the weakening of the westerly winds due to global warming, allowing polar air to move southward more easily [5][6].