Core Viewpoint - The A-share brokerage sector has shown strong performance, driven by improvements in policy, market confidence, and the fundamental outlook for the industry [1][2]. Policy Factors - The policy environment has provided a solid foundation for the brokerage sector's upward movement, with measures such as deepening the registration system, optimizing trading mechanisms, and introducing long-term capital [1]. - These initiatives have expanded the business scope for brokerages in investment banking, brokerage, and asset management [1]. Market Conditions - Market confidence has been restored, leading to active trading, with the average daily trading volume in A-shares reaching 2.1 trillion yuan in Q3, and some days exceeding 3 trillion yuan [1]. - The average margin financing and securities lending balance in the two markets exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of nearly 49% [1]. Fundamental Improvements - The brokerage sector's net profit is projected to reach 672 billion yuan by Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 87%, with a forecasted net profit of 1.8 trillion yuan for the first three quarters of 2023, up 55% year-on-year [2]. - The net income from brokerage business is expected to reach 136.4 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 82.5% year-on-year, while proprietary investment income is projected to be 146.2 billion yuan, up 14.1% [2]. Industry Transformation - The brokerage industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-value wealth management and institutional business, which provides independent alpha growth potential alongside market recovery [2]. - The sector is seen as having rare allocation value, with expectations for improvement in investment banking, derivatives, and public fund businesses [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest focusing on three main lines for future investments: companies with strong retail business benefiting from the Hainan Free Trade Port, those with advantages in overseas and institutional business, and firms excelling in wealth management [3].

7月14日晚间，国泰海通、中金公司、中信建投、申万宏源、东方证券、东吴证券等多家券商发布业绩预 告/快报，大批上市券商上半年"成绩单"浮出水面。 今年上半年，资本市场交投活跃，券商财富、投行、资管、自营投资等业务全面开花，上市券商也普遍赚 得"盆满钵满"。截至目前，已有23家上市券商发布业绩预告/业绩快报，悉数实现大幅业绩增长。值得一提的 是，不少于9家券商预计今年上半年净利实现同比翻倍增长，其中还有两家券商净利同比增幅超1000%。 赚翻了！券商上半年业绩出炉 7月14日晚间，国泰海通发布业绩预告，预计2025年上半年实现归母净利润152.83亿元至159.57亿元，同比增长 205%～218%。国泰海通称，上半年，公司全面推动零售、机构和企业三大客户服务体系建设，稳步发展各项 业务，取得较好经营业绩。同时，公司积极推进换股吸收合并海通证券股份有限公司相关工作，促进全面整合 融合，加快向国际一流投资银行迈进。 国泰海通还预计，公司2025年上半年实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润69.12亿元到73.96 亿元，同比增长52%到62%。该公司称，公司扣非后净利增长的主要原因为财富管理、机构与交 ...