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看好全年业绩!从券商中期策略看券商…
券商中国· 2025-06-08 03:17
Core Viewpoint - The securities industry is expected to experience significant growth due to a series of financial policies, with a focus on transformation and asset allocation capabilities becoming crucial for firms [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Outlook - Analysts predict a net profit growth exceeding 30% for the securities industry in the first half of 2024, with a continued positive trend into 2025 [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to see a year-on-year net profit increase of approximately 50% for 42 listed securities firms [2]. - The industry is projected to maintain a net profit growth rate of 37.7% in the first half of 2025, with annualized ROE expected to rise to 6% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Capital market reforms are creating new growth opportunities for the securities industry, with a total stock market value surpassing 100 trillion yuan and an increasing rate of securitization [3]. - Analysts have differing views on the current valuation of the securities sector, with some seeing it as undervalued while others believe it has returned to a reasonable level [3]. Group 3: Business Segmentation - The industry is experiencing significant operational differentiation, with self-operated and brokerage businesses becoming key performance drivers [4]. - The investment business is highlighted as a critical factor for annual performance, with a shift from simple expansion in fixed income to a focus on self-operated transformation [5][6]. Group 4: Strategic Directions - Analysts emphasize the need for enhanced strategy trading capabilities and cross-border asset allocation in fixed income, while high-dividend equity investments are becoming a consensus [5]. - The current low-interest-rate environment is constraining the capital gains potential in bond investments, leading to a focus on equity self-operation as a viable alternative [6].