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永艺股份(603600):25Q3营收短期承压,订单已回暖
Guotou Securities· 2025-11-06 09:31
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 15.78 CNY, while the current stock price is 11.80 CNY [3][6]. Core Views - The company has experienced short-term revenue pressure in Q3 2025, but orders have begun to recover. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 34.83 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.75%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.91 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 14.83% [1]. - The company is focusing on expanding its domestic market and non-US markets, which have shown faster growth. The domestic sales of self-owned brands have improved significantly, contributing to better profitability [2][6]. - The company is expected to see a gradual improvement in revenue and profitability, driven by new overseas customers and channels, as well as the growth of its self-owned brand in the domestic market [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 12.94 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.26%, and a net profit of 0.59 billion CNY, down 40.15% year-on-year. The gross margin for the first three quarters was 21.31%, a decrease of 1.37 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 4.53%, down 2.94 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of trade wars and inflation in Europe and the US [3]. Market Dynamics - The company’s sales have been affected by trade tensions and inflation, particularly in the US market, where furniture demand has weakened. However, the uncertainty around tariff policies has started to ease, leading to a recovery in orders since August [2]. - The company has made significant strides in enhancing its brand presence and sales channels, particularly in high-end products, which have seen an increase in market influence [2][6]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 51.46 billion CNY, 58.02 billion CNY, and 63.33 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.36%, 12.73%, and 9.16% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 2.89 billion CNY, 3.78 billion CNY, and 4.45 billion CNY for the same period [6][7].