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西南证券:下调春秋航空目标价至66.48元,给予买入评级
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-05-07 04:40
Core Insights - Spring Airlines reported a revenue of 20 billion yuan for 2024, marking an 11.50% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 2.273 billion yuan, up 0.69% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.317 billion yuan, a 2.88% increase year-on-year, but the net profit decreased by 16.39% to 677 million yuan [1] Operational Performance - The overall Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) for 2024 grew by 16.1% year-on-year, and by 26.1% compared to 2019; Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) increased by 18.8% year-on-year and 27.0% compared to 2019 [1] - In Q1 2025, ASK increased by 6.9% year-on-year, with domestic ASK down by 3.3%, international ASK up by 66.1%, and regional ASK down by 58.08% [1] - RPK for Q1 2025 grew by 6.2% year-on-year, with domestic RPK down by 2.9%, international RPK up by 61.6%, and regional RPK down by 58.6% [1] Profitability and Dividend Strategy - The single aircraft profit for 2023 and 2024 was 19.05 million yuan and 18.184 million yuan respectively, indicating a recovery towards pre-pandemic levels [2] - The company plans to distribute at least 30% of its distributable profits in cash dividends from 2024 to 2026, with a total cash dividend of 798 million yuan for 2024 [2] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.71 billion yuan, 3.3 billion yuan, and 4.04 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.77 yuan, 3.38 yuan, and 4.13 yuan [3] - The target price for the company is set at 66.48 yuan, based on a 24x PE ratio for 2025, with a "buy" rating recommended [3]