Group 1 - The first typhoon of the year, "Butterfly," formed on June 11, indicating the official start of the typhoon season, which is notably late this year compared to the average formation date of March 24 from 1991 to 2024, being over two months delayed [2][3] - "Butterfly" is currently classified as a tropical storm, with expectations of intensifying to a strong tropical storm or typhoon level (10-12 scale) due to favorable conditions such as high sea temperatures and moisture from the southwest monsoon [1][2] - The typhoon is projected to bring significant wind and rain impacts to Guangdong, with wind speeds reaching 7-10 levels in various coastal areas and heavy rainfall expected from June 13 to 15, marking the strongest precipitation event since the onset of the flood season [2][3] Group 2 - The delay in the typhoon season is attributed to a larger and stronger subtropical high-pressure system, which has suppressed the necessary convective development for typhoon formation, along with a southward shift in the tropical convergence zone and delayed summer monsoon onset [3]

Group 1 - The recent Dragon Boat Festival in Hangzhou was marked by significant rainfall, particularly on Children's Day, with the low-pressure system moving out to sea as the holiday ended [1] - Following the holiday, good weather is expected to return, with temperatures rising above 30°C [2] - The weather pattern in Hangzhou will shift to sunny conditions, with temperatures potentially reaching 35°C on Thursday and Friday [2] Group 2 - The southwest monsoon has recently erupted, marking the earliest occurrence since 2010, while the South China Sea summer monsoon has also emerged later than usual [3] - The current "typhoon drought" has lasted nearly six months, with the first typhoon typically forming by mid-March [3] - Forecasts suggest a possibility of typhoon formation in mid-June, contingent on atmospheric conditions [3]

Core Insights - The South China Sea summer monsoon has erupted this week, which is later than the usual onset time, indicating the beginning of the East Asian summer monsoon [1] - Following the eruption of the summer monsoon, the monsoon rain belt will gradually advance from South China northward, leading the country into the main flood season [1]