可再生燃料义务目标调整
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建信期货豆粕日报-20260331
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 01:56
Report Overview - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: March 31, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - The current market fundamentals have little change. The new regulations issued by the US Environmental Protection Agency provide medium - to long - term support for soybean oil, but the positive effect on US soybeans is weak. South American soybean production is expected to be abundant. The market is waiting for the USDA's planting area forecast report at the end of March. Domestic soybean meal prices follow the cost of US soybeans and are in a narrow - range oscillation. Before the report, consider double - buying options to bet on increased volatility. After the report, if the area is indeed increased and prices fall, consider selling out - of - the - money put options. There may be potential positive factors due to Brazilian arrivals in April, and the downward pressure may decrease [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Review**: - For soybean meal contracts, the prices of different contracts had different trends. For example, the closing price of the "Doupo 2605" contract was 2937, up 4 or 0.14% from the previous settlement price; the "Doupo 2607" contract closed at 2866, down 10 or - 0.35%; the "Doupo 2509" contract closed at 3003, down 15 or - 0.50%. The trading volume and open interest also changed. The US soybean futures contracts were oscillating, with the main contract close to 1165 cents [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: - Before the USDA report, consider double - buying options to bet on increased volatility. After the report, if the area is increased and prices fall, consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Also, pay attention to potential positive factors from Brazilian arrivals in April [6]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - Due to the Iran conflict, US farmers' planting plans have been disrupted. Corn planting area will be reduced, and the sowing volume of spring wheat is expected to reach the lowest level since 1970. Some farmers will switch to planting soybeans, and the soybean sowing area is expected to increase significantly. The average expectation of analysts surveyed by Reuters is that the US corn sowing area in 2026 will drop to 94.371 million acres, lower than 98.788 million acres in 2025; the soybean sowing area is expected to reach 85.549 million acres, higher than 81.215 million acres last year; the spring wheat area in the northern plains is expected to drop to 9.843 million acres, lower than 9.99 million acres last year. The price of high - gluten wheat has been weak due to Canada's record harvest last year. In Argentina, as of the week of March 25, the rainfall has helped improve the soybean crop rating, and the harvest of early - sown soybeans will start soon [7][9]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - There are various data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the "Doupo 05" contract, the spread between different contracts of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][16]