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养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20260401
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The long - term bullish factors for soybean oil continue, but the amplitude has increased. It is recommended to shift long positions to the 09 contract. The support level for the 09 contract is 8500 - 8550 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In the short - term, rapeseed oil may continue to fluctuate widely. It is advisable to wait and see and look for opportunities to go long after stabilization. The 05 contract's upper resistance range is 10000 - 10100, and the lower support range is 9450 - 9460 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Considering the positive factors such as biodiesel policies, geopolitical tensions, and strong exports of Malaysian palm oil, palm oil can be treated with a cautious bullish attitude, mainly adopting the strategy of going long on dips. The upper resistance range for the main contract is 10200 - 10220, and the lower support range is 9400 - 9410 [2]. - **Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal**: The cost - side support for the far - month contracts continues. It is recommended to arrange long positions in the 09 contracts of soybean No. 2 and soybean meal. The support level for the 09 contract of soybean meal is 2940 - 2950 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 3070 - 3080 yuan/ton. The lower support for the 05 contract of soybean No. 2 is 3700 - 3720, and the upper resistance is 3850 - 3860 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In the short - term, the price of rapeseed meal may continue to fluctuate and bottom out. It is advisable to wait and see and look for opportunities to go long after stabilization. The RM contract's lower support level is 2280 - 2300, and the upper resistance level is 2500 - 2510 [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The short - term futures prices may adjust slightly. It is recommended to wait and see or look for opportunities to go long on dips. The support range for the 2605 contract of corn is 2250 - 2280, and the resistance range is 2450 - 2480. The support range for the 05 contract of corn starch is 2670 - 2680, and the resistance range is 2850 - 2860 [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The upward driving force for soybean No. 1 is expected to be insufficient. It is not advisable to chase long positions. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The resistance level for the 05 contract is 4740 - 4760 yuan/ton, and the support level is 4400 - 4450 yuan/ton [6]. - **Hogs**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to change fundamentally. Cautious investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2607 contract lightly below 11000 points after the release of spot pressure. For options, a covered call strategy combination can be held [7]. - **Eggs**: Cautious investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can go long on the 05 contract below 3400 points. It is not advisable to chase short positions in the near - month contracts at historical low price ranges [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 05 contract is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see. Soybean No. 2 05 contract is in a wide - range adjustment. It is also recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Oils**: The 09 contract of soybean oil, 05 contract of rapeseed oil, and 05 contract of palm oil are all in a wide - range or oscillatory pattern. The 09 contract of soybean oil can be considered for long positions after stabilization, the 05 contract of rapeseed oil is recommended to wait and see, and the 05 contract of palm oil can be bought on dips [10]. - **Proteins**: The 09 contract of soybean meal and 05 contract of rapeseed meal are in an oscillatory pattern. It is recommended to go long after stabilization [10]. - **Energy and By - products**: The 05 contracts of corn and corn starch are in an oscillatory adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Livestock**: The 05 contracts of hogs and eggs are in an oscillatory bottom - seeking pattern. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Oilseeds**: For the 5 - 9 spreads of soybean No. 1 and soybean No. 2, it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Oils**: For the 5 - 9 spreads of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 05 spreads of soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and rapeseed oil - palm oil, it is also recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Proteins**: For the 5 - 9 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 05 spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: For the 5 - 9 spread of corn, it is recommended to go short on rallies. For the 5 - 9 spread of corn starch, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 05 spread of corn - corn starch, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Livestock**: For the 5 - 7 spread of hogs, it is recommended to hold reverse arbitrage positions. For the 5 - 7 spread of eggs, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, such as the arrival premium, futures prices, CNF prices, and import - duty - paid prices [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory changes and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, as well as their corresponding operating rates [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and import - duty - paid costs [18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, such as the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress of corn in deep - processing enterprises, as well as the inventory of corn starch enterprises [19]. 3.2.3 Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of hogs and eggs, including the spot prices, price changes, and key weekly data such as inventory, production rate, and profit of hogs and eggs [19][20][21][22]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts It includes a series of charts related to the livestock (hogs and eggs), oils and oilseeds, and feed sectors, such as the closing prices of futures contracts, spot prices, inventory, production, and trading volume of various commodities [23][31][55]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It shows the historical volatility of various commodities such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [93]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It presents the warehouse receipt situations of various commodities, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [101].
农产品日报(2026 年4 月1日)-20260401
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 05:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillatory and slightly weak trend in the short term, with limited downward price space. Policy and macro factors are in a game, and short - selling can be considered in the short term. Pay attention to weather, selling rhythm, and policy grain release [1]. - Soybean meal is in an oscillatory state. The cost is the main factor, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - Oils are in an oscillatory state with an upward - shifted oscillatory range. Short - long participation is recommended [2]. - Eggs are in an oscillatory state. The price is supported by cost, with a lifted bottom. Short - term trading is recommended, and follow - up inventory data and prices of surrounding commodities should be monitored [2]. - Pigs are in an oscillatory state. Before the supply pressure is effectively relieved, the price is likely to remain weak. Pay attention to the impact of feed cost and prices of surrounding commodities [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: On Tuesday, corn oscillated. The May contract decreased in price with reduced positions. The northeast corn price continued to decline slightly, and the market atmosphere weakened. The supply in the market is relatively sufficient in the short term, but the downward price space is limited. The price will continue to oscillate narrowly in the short term. Pay attention to weather, selling rhythm, and policy grain release. The price in the sales area is generally weak [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans rose due to lower - than - expected planting area. The domestic protein meal oscillated downward, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. The rising import cost helps to push up the price of protein meal. The decline in pig prices and the acceleration of breeding capacity reduction are not conducive to soybean meal consumption. The spot trading is sluggish, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - **Oils**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil rose. Indonesia will implement the B50 policy from July 1. The March export data is good. The domestic oil market rose accordingly. The import cost is the main factor driving the price. The spot price oscillates, and the soybean - palm oil price difference exceeds 1000 yuan/ton, which restrains palm oil consumption. The expected decrease in soybean crushing volume will lead to a decline in soybean oil inventory, and the spot basis is strong. Palm oil is stronger than soybean oil and rapeseed oil. Short - long participation is recommended [2]. - **Eggs**: On Tuesday, the main egg futures contract 2605 oscillated and closed down 0.38%. The spot price decreased. The egg - laying hen inventory increased in March, and the supply still exerts pressure on the price. The price is supported by cost, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - **Pigs**: On Tuesday, pig futures continued to weaken. The spot price was stable with a slight decline. The slaughter volume is average, and the second - fattening replenishment is cautious, which has limited support for the price. Before the supply pressure is relieved, the price is likely to remain weak [2]. Market Information - Trump said the US may end the war with Iran in two to three weeks [3]. - Iran's President said Iran has no intention to start a war and is willing to end it under certain conditions [3]. - China's three ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - Indonesia will implement a fuel rationing system and the B50 bio - fuel policy from July 1 [3]. - China's manufacturing PMI in March was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range [3]. - The predicted US soybean planting area in 2026 is 84.7 million acres, lower than the Reuters' expectation; the wheat planting area is 43.775 million acres, also lower than the expectation [4]. - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - The steel industry PMI in March was 50.6%, up 3.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range [4]. - Some glass production lines are planned for cold repair or stopped operation [4]. - CSPT decided not to set a reference price for spot copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2026 [4]. - The global battery energy storage cumulative installed capacity is expected to increase by 8 - 17 times from 2024 to 2035 [5]. - International precious metal futures generally rose, while crude oil futures mainly declined [5]. Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs, but no specific data analysis is given [6][7][9][10][14][15][17][21][22] Team Member Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won many awards and has rich experience [25]. - Hou Xueling is a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of futures experience and many awards [25]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher on eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures, with relevant research experience and honors [25].
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20260401
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The protein meal market: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal closed down. Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing, and although it is slower than last year, a bumper harvest is expected. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase due to the high soybean - corn price ratio and rising fertilizer prices. The medium - term domestic supply of protein meal is expected to be loose, suppressing prices [3]. - The oil market: Night trading of oils was strong. The US bio - diesel policy RVO quantity is in line with expectations, and Indonesia plans to implement the B50 bio - diesel policy, which is expected to boost palm oil demand. The oil market is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to the co - existence of fundamental pressure and positive policy expectations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are presented, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the soybean oil主力's previous day's closing price was 8668, with a decline of 46 and a decline rate of - 0.53% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: Spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, etc., are provided, along with their current and previous values [2]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of international futures like BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, etc., are given. For instance, BMD palm oil's previous day's closing price was 4666, with an increase of 221 and an increase rate of 4.97% [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices and their percentage changes of various products in different regions are shown, including soybean oil, palm oil, etc. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8990, with an increase rate of 0.45% [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads between different products are provided, such as the basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 322, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 630 [2]. Import Profit and Warehouse Receipts - **Import Profit**: Current and previous values of import profit for various imported products like Malaysian palm oil, US soybeans, etc., are presented. For example, the current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 495 [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Current and previous values of warehouse receipts for products such as soybean oil, palm oil, etc., are given. For example, the current warehouse receipt of soybean oil is 0, and the previous value was 13,019 [2]. Industry Information - **USDA Report**: The USDA's planting intention report predicts that the US soybean planting area in 2026 will be 84.7 million acres, and the wheat planting area will be 43.775 million acres, which are different from Reuters' expectations [3]. - **Brazilian Exports**: Brazil's March soybean and soybean meal export estimates are slightly lower than last week's forecasts [3]. - **Brazilian Harvest**: As of March 28, Brazil's soybean harvest rate is 74.3%, slower than last year but still expected to be a bumper harvest [3].
宝城期货品种套利数据日报-20260401
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 03:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report; it mainly offers various commodity and index-related data, including basis, spreads, and ratios 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from March 25 to March 31, 2026, shows values such as -45.4, -41.4, -40.4, -40.4, and -46.4 respectively; the spreads between different contract months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) are all 0.0 [2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt have corresponding basis and ratio data from March 25 to March 31, 2026 [5] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for various chemical products (natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP, etc.) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are provided; also includes spread data between different contract months and cross - product spread data [7] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for black metals (rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are presented; spread data between different contract months and cross - product ratio data are also included [11] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are provided [21] 3.4.2 London Market - LME data for non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on March 31, 2026, including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss [27] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for agricultural products (soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc.) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are provided; spread data between different contract months and cross - product ratio data are also included [34] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for stock index futures (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are presented; spread data between different contract months are also included [45]
豆粕:USDA面积报告偏多,盘面或反弹,豆一:现货稳定,盘面反弹震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:59
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The USDA area report for soybeans is bullish, and the futures market may rebound; the spot price of soybeans is stable, and the futures market rebounds and fluctuates [1] - On March 31, 2026, CBOT soybean futures closed higher as the USDA's soybean planting area forecast was lower than market expectations. The 2026 US soybean planting area is expected to be 84.7 million acres, a 4% year-on-year increase but lower than Reuters' pre-report forecast of 85.549 million acres. The quarterly inventory report shows that as of March 1, 2026, the total US soybean inventory was 2.1 billion bushels, a 10% year-on-year increase and higher than market expectations [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE Soybean 2605: The closing price was 4,641 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan (+1.62%) during the day session and 4,639 yuan, up 27 yuan (+0.59%) during the night session [1] - DCE Soybean Meal 2605: The closing price was 2,915 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (-0.75%) during the day session and 2,913 yuan, down 6 yuan (-0.21%) during the night session [1] - CBOT Soybean 05: The price was up 13.5 cents (+1.17%) to 1,172.25 cents/bushel [1] - CBOT Soybean Meal 05: The price was 316.4 dollars/short ton, up 1.8 dollars (+0.57%) [1] Spot - Shandong: The spot price of soybean meal (43%) was flat to -20 yuan compared to the previous day. The spot basis was M2605 + 260/+270/+300, with prices ranging from 3,180 to 3,220 yuan/ton. For April 20 - 30 delivery, it was M2605 + 200, flat; for April 20 - May 15 delivery, it was M2605 + 160; for May, it was M2605 + 100/+130/+160; for May - July, it was M2605 + 0/+20/+50; for August - September, it was M2609 - 30/-20/+0/+30/+60; for October - January, it was M2701 + 30/+40/+50/+70/+100 [1] - East China: The spot price of soybean meal was M2605 + 230, down 30 yuan compared to the previous day. For April 16 - 30 delivery, it was M2605 + 200, flat; for May, it was M2605 + 100, flat [1] - South China: The spot price of soybean meal ranged from 3,180 to 3,420 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan to flat compared to the previous day. For April 25 - May 10 delivery, it was M2605 + 180, flat; for April 16 - May 15 delivery, it was M2605 + 180, flat; for May, it was M2605 + 100, flat [1] - Bayan: The price of soybeans was 4,680 yuan/ton [1] Inventory and Trading Volume - The inventory of soybean meal was 63.1 million tons/week, compared to 64.18 million tons the previous week [1] - The trading volume of soybeans was 10.6 million tons/day, compared to 8.49 million tons the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On March 31, 2026, CBOT soybean futures closed higher as the USDA's soybean planting area forecast was lower than market expectations. The 2026 US soybean planting area is expected to be 84.7 million acres, a 4% year-on-year increase but lower than Reuters' pre-report forecast of 85.549 million acres. The quarterly inventory report shows that as of March 1, 2026, the total US soybean inventory was 2.1 billion bushels, a 10% year-on-year increase and higher than market expectations [3] - In Brazil, soybean harvesting in some areas is nearly complete, and there has been rainfall in many areas this week. Although the recent rainfall has slowed the harvesting progress in northeastern Brazil, it has helped the late - growing soybean crops in Rio Grande do Sul [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1; the trend intensity of soybeans is 0 (referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract during the day session on the report day) [3]
格林大华期货早盘提示:三油,两粕-20260401
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For vegetable oils, due to ongoing instability in the Middle East, the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, and Indonesia's clear B50 plan schedule, vegetable oils are expected to follow the trend of crude oil. It is recommended to hold long positions in vegetable oils [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), due to the lower - than - expected US soybean planting area, the short - term support for the main contract of continuous meal is at the 2900 yuan/ton level. Near - month short positions should be gradually closed for profit, and new buying opportunities for far - month contracts should be awaited after adjustment [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On March 31, palm oil led the rise in the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices of main and sub - main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showed varying degrees of decline, with different changes in positions [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - The US EPA requires the production and use of biodiesel and renewable diesel to increase by over 60% compared to 2025, and raises the proportion of the fuel quota for large refineries from 50% to 70% [1]. - Indonesia will implement a fuel rationing system, transfer the national institutional budget to "productive" uses, and implement the B50 biodiesel policy from July 1 [1]. - US NYMEX crude oil futures closed lower on Tuesday. The May crude oil futures contract fell $1.5, with a settlement price of $101.38 per barrel [1]. - From March 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.92% month - on - month, with different trends in different regions [1]. - Brazil's Abiove suggests increasing the proportion of biodiesel in regular diesel, while the energy minister calls for more tests [1]. - The US CPC predicts that La Nina will turn into ENSO neutral in the next month, and El Nino may form from June - August 2026 and last until the end of the year [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 increased by 38.4% compared to the same period last month, with an increase in exports to China [1][2]. - As of the 13th weekend of 2026, the total inventory of three major domestic edible oils increased by 0.36% week - on - week and decreased by 5.92% year - on - year, with different trends in each type of oil [2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, due to instability in the Middle East and the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, the US soybean oil futures are oscillating strongly at a high level. Indonesia's B50 plan tightens the future export expectation of palm oil. Vegetable oils mainly follow the trend of crude oil, and long positions in vegetable oils should be continued to hold [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Hold long positions in vegetable oils. Provide pressure and support levels for different contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On March 31, the spot market was weak, and double - meal continued to decline. The closing prices of main and sub - main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all showed varying degrees of decline, with different changes in positions [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the estimated soybean planting area in the US in 2026 is 84.7 million acres, higher than last year but lower than analysts' expectations [2]. - As of March 27, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 72.99%, lower than last year but close to the five - year average [2]. - Brazil's March soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts are both lower than last week's forecasts [3]. - As of the 13th weekend of 2026, domestic import soybean inventory increased, while domestic soybean meal contract volume decreased. Imported rapeseed inventory and imported rapeseed meal contract volume both decreased [3]. - Provide spot prices, basis prices, and trading volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal as of March 31, as well as soybean crushing profits and soybean and rapeseed arrival costs [3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US soybean futures closed higher due to the lower - than - expected planting area. The short - term support for the main contract of continuous meal is at the 2900 yuan/ton level. In the spot market, the price of soybean meal is expected to move down with the market, and short - term caution is advised for rapeseed meal. Near - month short positions should be gradually closed for profit, and new buying opportunities for far - month contracts should be awaited after adjustment [2][3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Gradually close near - month short positions in double - meal and wait for new buying points for far - month contracts after adjustment. Provide pressure and support levels for different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [3].
宝城期货资讯早班车-20260401
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic situation shows a mixed picture, with some indicators improving while others facing challenges. The geopolitical situation, especially the Iran - US conflict, has significant impacts on the global economy, trade, and financial markets. Central banks are implementing various monetary policies to maintain economic stability and promote growth [1][2][13] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile and relatively strong performance in the second quarter, and attention should be paid to international situation changes and crude oil import conditions [21] - The stock market is volatile, with different sectors showing different trends, and the public - offering fund market is making progress in implementing performance comparison benchmark regulations [30][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter and the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in March 2026 was 50.4%, up from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI: business activity was 50.1%, slightly down from the previous month [1] - In February 2026, social financing scale was 23855 billion yuan, M0, M1, and M2 year - on - year growth rates were 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% respectively. New RMB loans were 9000 billion yuan. CPI was 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 0.9% year - on - year [1] - In February 2026, fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year growth was 1.8%, and social consumer goods retail sales cumulative year - on - year growth was 2.8%. Exports and imports in February 2026 increased by 39.60% and 13.80% year - on - year respectively [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The US, Iran are willing to end the war, but Iran requires guarantees. The Iran - US conflict may cause significant GDP losses in Arab countries, rising unemployment, and increased poverty [2] - The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee suggests integrating incremental and stock policies, using various tools for monetary policy regulation, and maintaining financial market stability [3] 3.2.2 Metals - Goldman Sachs raised the Q2 2026 LME aluminum price forecast to $3450 from $3200. On March 31, domestic tin and copper inventories reached new lows, while aluminum inventory reached a new high [4] - Three Middle - Eastern aluminum plants cut production by about 2.63 million tons. On March 31, the gold持仓 of SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.11% to 1047.28 tons [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In mid - March, the price of rebar increased by 0.83% month - on - month to 3189.1 yuan/ton, the price of coke decreased by 2.08% month - on - month to 1346.4 yuan/ton, and the price of coking coal increased by 0.4% month - on - month to 1420.7 yuan/ton [6] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - US API crude oil inventory increased by 10.263 million barrels last week, causing oil prices to fall. Sadara Chemical Company temporarily shut down due to supply chain disruptions. Iran's oil discount has narrowed, and the average selling price has risen. The US Treasury Secretary said the oil market has a daily supply shortage of 10 - 12 million barrels [7] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In mid - March, the prices of soybean meal, soybeans, and cotton increased by 6.82%, 2.98%, and 2.15% month - on - month respectively, reaching new highs [9] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 31, the central bank conducted 32.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 15 billion yuan [10] 3.3.2 Important News - The US and Iran are willing to end the war, but there is no formal negotiation yet. Iran listed 18 US ICT and AI - related companies as "legitimate targets" [11][12] - China's economic sentiment improved in March, with manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indexes all returning to the expansion range [14] - From January to February, state - owned enterprises' total operating income increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the profit decreased by 2% year - on - year. The asset - liability ratio at the end of February was 65.4%, up 0.5 percentage points year - on - year [15] - A number of national regulations will be implemented in April. The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance arrangements for key - term, short - term, and ultra - long - term treasury bonds in Q2 2026 [15][16] - In February, government bond net financing decreased by 292.53 billion yuan year - on - year, and corporate bond net financing decreased by 18.02 billion yuan year - on - year. At the end of February, the bond market custody balance was 198.9 trillion yuan, with foreign institutions holding 3.4 trillion yuan [16] - New special bonds issuance accelerated in Q1 2026, reaching 1.1599 trillion yuan, a 21% increase from the same period in 2025 [17] - The trading association supported 370+ enterprises to issue 1.06 trillion yuan of science and technology innovation bonds. New bond indexes will be launched on April 1 [17][18] - Global central banks are selling US Treasury bonds at the fastest pace in more than a decade. The market trading logic has shifted from inflation trading to recession trading [18] - Some bond - related events include bond redemption options, asset transfers, and rating changes [19] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market was volatile, with most major interest - rate bond yields rising slightly. Treasury bond futures mostly strengthened. The inter - bank market liquidity was very loose [20][21] - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling. The convertible bond index and related indexes also showed different trends [21][22] - Money market interest rates mostly declined, and the yields of some domestic and foreign bonds also changed [22][24][25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 49 basis points at the 16:30 close. The US dollar index fell 0.62%, and most non - US currencies rose [26] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that accelerating the revitalization of existing assets helps local platforms transform and serve economic growth. The acceleration of government debt clearance for enterprises is expected to repair the balance sheets and valuations of industries such as construction [27][28] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the "South - bound Bond Connect" meets the needs of institutional diversification, and the Hong Kong bond market may expand, providing more choices for global asset allocation [28] 3.4 Stock Market News - The A - share market declined, with some sectors rising and some falling. The Hong Kong stock market had a mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising slightly and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling [30][31] - The public - offering fund market is making progress in implementing performance comparison benchmark regulations [31] 3.5 Today's Reminder - On April 1, 132 bonds were listed, 120 bonds were issued, 55 bonds were due for payment, and 173 bonds paid principal and interest [29]
棕榈油:b30消息刺激,短期偏强表现,豆油:播种面积不及预期,豆系情绪提振
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil shows a short - term strong performance due to B50 news stimulation [1] - Soybean oil is boosted by the sentiment of the soybean sector as the sown area is lower than expected [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,866 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.64%, and (night session) is 10,094 yuan/ton with an increase of 2.31%. Trading volume is 587,524 lots with an increase of 86,323 lots, and open interest is 245,751 lots with a decrease of 34,398 lots [2] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,668 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.53%, and (night session) is 8,768 yuan/ton with an increase of 1.15%. Trading volume is 272,706 lots with a decrease of 25,494 lots, and open interest is 464,075 lots with a decrease of 34,825 lots [2] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,884 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%, and (night session) is 9,951 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.68%. Trading volume is 201,426 lots with a decrease of 6,379 lots, and open interest is 195,830 lots with a decrease of 3,815 lots [2] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price is 4,829 ringgit/ton with an increase of 1.19% (day session), and 4,903 ringgit/ton with an increase of 1.55% (night session) [2] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price is 68.97 cents/pound with an increase of 0.73% [2] - **Spot Price Data**: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 9,930 yuan/ton with an increase of 150 yuan/ton [2] - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 9,150 yuan/ton with an increase of 130 yuan/ton [2] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Spot price is 10,220 yuan/ton with an increase of 70 yuan/ton [2] - Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price (continuous contract): Spot price is 1,215 dollars/ton with an increase of 25 dollars/ton [2] - **Basis Data**: - Palm oil (Guangdong): Basis is 64 yuan/ton [2] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Basis is 482 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Basis is 336 yuan/ton [2] - **Spread Data**: - Rapeseed - palm oil futures main contract spread: 18 yuan/ton (previous trading day), - 39 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [2] - Soybean - palm oil futures main contract spread: - 1,198 yuan/ton (previous trading day), - 1,216 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [2] - Palm oil 5 - 9 spread: - 22 yuan/ton (previous trading day), 30 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [2] - Soybean oil 5 - 9 spread: 40 yuan/ton (both previous trading day and two trading days ago) [2] - Rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread: 93 yuan/ton (previous trading day), 98 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia will implement a fuel procurement rationing system starting from July 1, 2026, and will implement the B50 biofuel policy [3] - The 2026 US soybean planting area is 84.7 million acres, lower than the Reuters' expectation of 85.549 million acres; the US corn planting area is 95.338 million acres, higher than the Reuters' expectation of 94.371 million acres [4][5] - As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of US old - crop soybeans is 2.1 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 10%. The farm inventory is 900 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 3%; the non - farm inventory is 1.2 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 16%. The soybean consumption from December 2025 to February 2026 is 1.18 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1% [5] - Analysts predict that the US soybean processors' soybean crushing volume in February 2026 may reach 6.43 million short tons (214.3 million bushels). If the average prediction of eight analysts is accurate, the crushing volume in that month will decrease by 5.9% compared with January and increase by 13.1% compared with February 2025. The average daily crushing volume in February will reach 7.654 million bushels, a record high. As of February 28, 2026, the US soybean oil inventory is expected to be 2.626 billion pounds, an 8.0% increase from the end of January and a 36.5% increase from the end of February 2025 [6] - As of the week of March 27, 2026, the US soybean crushing profit is 4.35 dollars/bushel, a 5.8% increase from the previous week, reaching the highest level since the week of October 27, 2023. The average crushing profit in 2025 is 2.46 dollars/bushel, higher than 2.44 dollars/bushel in 2024. The 48% protein soybean meal spot price of soybean processing plants in Illinois is 332.10 dollars/short ton, equivalent to 7.72 dollars/bushel. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Iowa is 67.35 cents/pound, equivalent to 7.95 dollars/bushel. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans is 11.56 dollars/bushel, up from 11.49 dollars/bushel a week ago [7] - Brazil's soybean export volume in March 2026 is estimated to be 15.86 million tons, slightly lower than last week's forecast of 15.87 million tons; the soybean meal export volume is estimated to be 2.24 million tons, lower than last week's forecast of 2.44 million tons [7] - In February 2026, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume is 951,353 tons, a 9.69% decrease from the previous month and a 7.79% increase from the same period last year. The rapeseed oil production is 408,564 tons, a 9.04% decrease from the previous month and a 9.41% increase from the same period last year. The rapeseed meal production is 548,424 tons, an 11.3% decrease from the previous month and a 5.75% increase from the same period last year. The cumulative rapeseed crushing volume in the 2025/26 season is 7.06655 million tons, the rapeseed oil production is 2.999801 million tons, and the rapeseed meal production is 4.131511 million tons [8] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 1; Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [9]
广发早知道:汇总版-20260401
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The conflict has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty. The end - conflict signals released by both sides have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals also play important roles in price trends [2][9][93]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the metals industry, some metals are affected by supply disruptions in the Middle East, while others are influenced by changes in domestic production and demand. In the agricultural products industry, factors such as planting area, harvest progress, and downstream demand affect prices. In the energy - chemical industry, the conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the supply and cost of raw materials [24][70][93]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Selections - **Tin**: With the US and Iran expressing the willingness to end the conflict, market risk appetite has recovered, and tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Supply has improved significantly, and demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to buy long positions [2][35]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and soda ash is oscillating downward. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, but the downward space is expected to be limited, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1150 - 1250 [3][117]. - **Rebar**: Raw materials are strong, supporting the steel price center. The supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [4][53]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts. The short - term price may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline [5][74]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific market is down, and the Q2 style tends to focus on fundamental verification. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The leaders of the US and Iran have expressed the will to end the war, the US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have rebounded significantly. In the short term, gold may have a technical repair, and silver may also have a band - trading opportunity. Platinum and palladium are in a state of shock and consolidation [9][12]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Iran's intention to end the war has led to a rebound in copper prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the medium - and long - term copper supply - demand contradiction logic has not changed significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract focusing on the pressure at 97000 - 98000 [14][18]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are continuously accumulating, and the market is running weakly. The industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of production cuts in the Middle East is fermenting, and the price is hitting the 25000 mark. The short - term core operating range is expected to be 24000 - 26000, and long positions are recommended to be held [22][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly supported by the price of primary aluminum, and the upward and downward spaces are limited. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23000 - 24500 [25][26]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have rebounded, and spot transactions are average. The supply - demand cycle is weak, and the smelting cost will support the zinc price. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy on dips [27][30]. - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the Indonesian export tax policy is still uncertain. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 134000 - 140000 [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strengthening, and the market is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 14200 - 14800, and a mid - term low - buying strategy is recommended [38][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply expectations are uncertain, and the market has fallen significantly. The short - term market may adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is oversupplied, and the futures are oscillating downward. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production control has not been achieved, and the futures are falling. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and strategies such as short - selling at high prices or long - buying at low prices can be considered [48][51]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw material prices support the steel price center. Supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [52][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term shipments have declined, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 780 - 830 [54][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Auction transactions have declined, and the market is affected by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1050 - 1250 [57][59]. - **Coke**: The spot price increase is about to be implemented, and the market is following the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1600 - 1800 [60][63]. - **Silicon Iron**: It is necessary to pay attention to the change in settlement electricity prices, and the market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to conduct range operations in the range of 5800 - 6200 [64][65]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production cuts have been implemented, and the cost support of manganese ore may weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 5700 - 6800 [67][69]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean planting intention has been slightly increased, and the domestic soybean meal spot market is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and the soybean meal lacks effective support [70][72]. - **Live Pigs**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts [73][74]. - **Corn**: The bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent policy release [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The spot trading is average, and the market is maintaining a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [78][80]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report shows an increase in the US cotton planting area, and domestic downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. It is necessary to focus on the actual orders of downstream enterprises, the change in the new - season planting area, and the weather in the main production areas [80][82]. - **Eggs**: Terminal sales are slow, and egg prices are generally falling. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and a weak trend [83][84]. - **Oils**: Indonesia's plan to promote B50 in July has boosted the oil market. Palm oil may rise in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the increase in US soybean planting area, and rapeseed oil is following the international oil market and maintaining a wide - range oscillation [85][87]. - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and fall to build a bottom. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 [88][89]. - **Apples**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the price is continuing to weaken. The 05 contract is supported by low inventory, and the 10 contract is affected by the weather expectation of the new - season flowering period [90][91]. 3.6 Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US and Iran have sent signals to cool down the conflict, and oil prices are running weakly. The short - term may be in a weak - oscillation pattern, but the supply shortage still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [92][93]. - **PX**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, PX is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, it is oscillating at a high level. The 4 - month inventory is expected to accumulate, and the demand may drag down the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the cost transmission of downstream products [98]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to be tight in April, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply will decrease significantly in the second quarter, and the inventory will be significantly reduced. It still has the potential to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see [103]. - **Styrene**: Similar to pure benzene, it is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply - demand has weakened, but it is still relatively tight. It is recommended to take the same strategy as pure benzene [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The market is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price has support at the bottom. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [106]. - **PP**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [107]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export expectation has been fulfilled, and the market has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [109][110]. - **PVC**: The chemical market sentiment has subsided, and the price is adjusting. The short - term may be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual production suspension rhythm of the devices [111][112]. - **Urea**: There is no strong unilateral driving force, and the price is running in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand and policy dynamics, with the main contract referring to the range of 1830 - 1900 [113]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and it is oscillating downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][117]. - **Glass**: Cost support has weakened, and it is approaching the previous low. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: The US and Iran have released signals to end the conflict, and rubber prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see, with the operating range expected to be 16000 - 17500 [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East is fluctuating, and BR is oscillating at a high level. It still has the potential to rise before the oil transportation in the Middle East is restored, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The off - season cargo - collection is under pressure, and the overall market is weakly oscillating. The 04 contract is oscillating widely around the spot price center, and the 06 contract is expected to oscillate widely following the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to risks [123][125].
全品种价差日报-20260401
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Not explicitly stated in the provided content Summary by Categories Black Series - For silicon iron (SF603), the futures price is 5978, the basis is 104, the spot price is 5874, the basis rate is 1.80%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 71.50% [1] - For silicon manganese (SM603), the futures price is 6600, the basis is 156, the spot price is 6444, the basis rate is 2.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 57.30% [1] - For rebar (RB2605), the futures price is 3121, the basis is 99, the spot price is 3220, the basis rate is 3.20%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 47.10% [1] - For hot - rolled coil (HC2605), the futures price is 3280, the basis is - 14, the spot price is 3294, the basis rate is - 0.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 13.60% [1] - For iron ore (I2605), the futures price is 808, the basis is 28, the spot price is 836, the basis rate is 3.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 23.50% [1] - For coke (J2605), the futures price is 1702, the basis is 54, the spot price is 1756, the basis rate is 3.20%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 86.80% [1] - For main coking coal (S1.3 G75, Mongolian No.5) at Shaheyi, the futures price is 1149, the basis is 130, the spot price is 1278, the basis rate is 11.30%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 61.60% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2605), the futures price is 95340, the basis is 260, the spot price is 95600, the basis rate is 0.27%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 77.70% [1] - For aluminum (AL2605), the futures price is 24610, the basis is - 265, the spot price is 24875, the basis rate is - 1.07%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 8.10% [1] - For alumina (AO2605), the futures price is 2788, the basis is - 39, the spot price is 2827, the basis rate is - 1.39%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 25.60% [1] - For zinc (ZN2605), the futures price is 23480, the basis is - 120, the spot price is 23360, the basis rate is - 0.51%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 32.50% [1] - For tin (SN2605), the futures price is 368000, the basis is 3550, the spot price is 371550, the basis rate is 0.96%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.90% [1] - For nickel (NI2605), the futures price is 135000, the basis is 220, the spot price is 134780, the basis rate is 0.16%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 65.80% [1] - For stainless steel (SS2605), the futures price is 14160, the basis is 410, the spot price is 14400, the basis rate is 2.90%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 70.60% [1] - For lithium carbonate (LC2605), the futures price is 157200, the basis is 5800, the spot price is 163000, the basis rate is 3.69%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 97.80% [1] - For industrial silicon (SI2605), the futures price is 8322, the basis is 795, the spot price is 9150, the basis rate is 9.52%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 53.80% [1] Precious Metals - For gold (AU2606), the futures price is 1015.7, the basis is - 4.4, the spot price is 1020.10, the basis rate is - 0.43%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 9.30% [1] - For silver (AG2606), the futures price is 18031.0, the basis is - 95.0, the spot price is 18126.0, the basis rate is - 0.52%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 7.00% [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2605), the futures price is 2915, the basis is 205, the spot price is 3120, the basis rate is 7.03%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 61.90% [1] - For soybean oil (Y2605), the futures price is 8668, the basis is 262, the spot price is 8930, the basis rate is 3.02%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 55.40% [1] - For palm oil (P2605), the futures price is 9866, the basis is - 46, the spot price is 9820, the basis rate is - 0.47%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 13.30% [1] - For rapeseed meal (RM605), the futures price is 2299, the basis is 11, the spot price is 2310, the basis rate is 0.48%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 49.70% [1] - For rapeseed oil (OI605), the futures price is 9884, the basis is 516, the spot price is 10400, the basis rate is 5.22%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.70% [1] - For corn (C2605), the futures price is 2351, the basis is 29, the spot price is 2380, the basis rate is 1.23%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 49.00% [1] - For corn starch (CS2605), the futures price is 2745, the basis is 155, the spot price is 2900, the basis rate is 5.65%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 76.90% [1] - For live pigs (LH2605), the futures price is 9770, the basis is - 420, the spot price is 10190, the basis rate is - 4.30%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 28.10% [1] - For eggs (D2605), the futures price is 3400, the basis is - 40, the spot price is 3440, the basis rate is - 1.16%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 36.40% [1] - For cotton, the futures price is 15295, the basis is 1352, the spot price is 16650, the basis rate is 8.86%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.00% [1] - For sugar (SR605), the futures price is 5398, the basis is 62, the spot price is 5460, the basis rate is 1.15%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 9.70% [1] - For apples (AP605), the futures price is 9800, the basis is - 26, the spot price is 9826, the basis rate is - 0.26%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 23.00% [1] - For red dates (CJ605), the futures price is 7900, the basis is - 850, the spot price is 8750, the basis rate is - 9.71%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 48.60% [1] Energy and Chemicals - For paraxylene (PX605), the futures price is 9700.0, the basis is 268.8, the spot price is 9968.77, the basis rate is 2.77%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 92.30% [1] - For PTA (TA605), the futures price is 6684.0, the basis is - 44.0, the spot price is 6640.0, the basis rate is - 0.66%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 42.60% [1] - For ethylene glycol (MEG), the futures price is 5218.0, the basis is 147.0, the spot price is 5365.0, the basis rate is 2.82%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 94.50% [1] - For ethanol (EG2605), the futures price is 8246.0, the basis is 74.0, the spot price is 8320.0, the basis rate is 0.90%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 62.90% [1] - For styrene (EB2605), the futures price is 10597.0, the basis is 158.0, the spot price is 10755.0, the basis rate is 1.49%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 60.30% [1] - For methanol (MA605), the futures price is 3229.0, the basis is 116.0, the spot price is 3345.0, the basis rate is 3.59%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 84.10% [1] - For urea (UR605), the futures price is 1874.0, the basis is 26.0, the spot price is 1900.0, the basis rate is 1.39%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 25.60% [1] - For LLDPE (L2605), the futures price is 8614.0, the basis is 86.0, the spot price is 8700.0, the basis rate is 1.00%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 52.90% [1] - For PP (PP2605), the futures price is 9103.0, the basis is 172.0, the spot price is 9275.0, the basis rate is 1.89%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 72.50% [1] - For PVC (V2605), the futures price is 5353.0, the basis is - 133.0, the spot price is 5220.0, the basis rate is - 2.48%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 45.10% [1] - For caustic soda (SH605), the futures price is 2340.0, the basis is - 36.9, the spot price is 2303.1, the basis rate is - 1.58%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 41.10% [1] - For LPG (PG2605), the futures price is 6339.0, the basis is 1009.0, the spot price is 7348.0, the basis rate is 15.92%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 95.50% [1] - For asphalt (BU2606), the futures price is 4512.0, the basis is - 92.0, the spot price is 4420.0, the basis rate is - 2.04%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 32.80% [1] - For butadiene rubber (BR2605), the futures price is 17350.0, the basis is 1150.0, the spot price is 18500.0, the basis rate is 6.63%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 99.50% [1] - For glass (FG605), the futures price is 1019.0, the basis is - 67.0, the spot price is 952.0, the basis rate is - 7.04%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 56.09% [1] - For soda ash (SA605), the futures price is 1177.0, the basis is - 20.0, the spot price is 1157.0, the basis rate is - 1.73%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 46.84% [1] - For pure benzene (BZ2605), the futures price is 8790.0, the basis is 150.0, the spot price is 8940.0, the basis rate is 1.71%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 98.80% [1] - For propylene (PL2605), the futures price is 8795.0, the basis is - 45.0, the spot price is 8750.0, the basis rate is - 0.51%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 36.90% [1] - For bottle chips (PR2605), the futures price is 8525.0, the basis is 335.0, the spot price is 8190.0, the basis rate is 4.09%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 98.50% [1] - For natural rubber (RU2605), the futures price is 16345.0, the basis is - 45.0, the spot price is 16300.0, the basis rate is - 0.28%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 90.35% [1] Financial Assets - For IF2606.CFE, the futures price is 4450.0493, the basis is - 74.2493, the spot price is 4375.8, the basis rate is - 1.70%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 2.50% [1] - For IH2606.CFE, the futures price is 2837.3064, the basis is - 22.9064, the spot price is 2814.4, the basis rate is - 0.81%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 5.70% [1] - For IC2606.CFE, the futures price is 7753.7234, the basis is - 193.1234, the spot price is 7560.6, the basis rate is - 2.55%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 0.30% [1] - For IM2606.CFE, the futures price is 7619.8503, the basis is - 240.4503, the spot price is 7379.4, the basis rate