黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。11 月 28 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 4.3/5.1/8.0 元 ， 周 环 比 分 别 +0.0%/+2.0%/+0.0%。 证券研究报告 | 2025年11月30日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（184） 优于大市 肉牛价格稳步上涨，看好肉奶周期共振反转 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。11 月 28 日生猪价格 11.19 元/ 公斤，周环比-4%；15kg 仔猪价格约 318.75 元/头，周环比+0.2%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。11 月 28 日，鸡苗价格 3.47 元/ 羽，周环比-0.3%；毛鸡价格 7.19 元/公斤，周环比+0.6%。 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏维持增长，中期供给压力较大。11 月 28 日，鸡蛋主 产区批发均价价 3.68 元/斤，周环比+1.24%，同比-26%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好 2025 年牛周期反转上行。11 月 28 日，牛 肉市场价为 66.54 元/kg，周环比+0.24%，同 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 11 30 年 月 日 农林牧渔 生猪去化趋势不改，择机参与板块配置 本月热点：2025/11/28 全国瘦肉型肉猪出栏价 11.09 元/kg，较上月下跌 9.1%。行业亏损持续，2025/11/28 自繁自养头均盈利-147.99 元/头，较 上月减少 58.66 元/头，外购仔猪头均盈利-248.82 元/头，较上月减少 69.1 元/头，且旺季出栏比重加大，亏损对各个养殖主体来说实际影响更大。10 月官方公布能繁母猪下降至 3990 万头，在政策驱动与低价的共同发力下， 后续产能还将持续下行。此外，冬季疫病以及欧洲非洲猪瘟进展也值得关 注，在低价影响下行业的突发因素或将增多。当前生猪股票关注度回到低 位，产业的变化却在持续酝酿中，我们仍建议择机参与生猪配置。 生猪养殖：2025/11/28 全国瘦肉型肉猪出栏价 11.09 元/kg，较上月下跌 9.1%。考虑旺季亏损，养殖参与者的损失较大，我们预计未来较长时间成 本偏高的参与者面临减量压力，母猪产能数据变化仍将继续催化。当前估 值仍位于相对低位，关注低成本的猪企的配置机会，关注牧原股份、 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 30 日 豆粕：关注中方采购美豆情况，盘面震荡 豆一：关注中美贸易情绪，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（11.24-11.28），美豆期价小幅上涨，因为中方采购美豆预期稳定、且有实际采购行动。从周 K 线角度，11 月 28 日当周，美豆主力 01 月合约周涨幅 0.95%，美豆粕主力 01 月合约周跌幅 0.38%。 上周（11.24-11.28），国内豆粕期价略偏强，豆一期价中性。豆粕方面，可能因为"中国暂停五家 巴西大豆企业对华出口资质"事件影响。据新闻讯，因在运输大豆船舶货舱中发现经农药处理的小麦，中 国已阻止 6.9 万吨巴西大豆入境。豆一方面，现货稳定，盘面可能受到贸易情绪影响。从周 K 线角度，11 月 28 日当周，豆粕主力 m2601 合约周涨幅 1.06%，豆一主力 a2601 合约周跌幅 0.02%。（上述期货价格 及涨跌幅数据引自文华财经） 期货研究 上周（11.24-11.28），国际大豆市场主要基本面情况：1）中方继续采购美豆，利多美豆。据 USDA ...

2025年11月30日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力 | 2 | | 工业硅：供需转弱 | 11 | | 多晶硅：波动放大，关注仓单注册情况 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：需求季节性走弱叠加大厂复产加速，上方承压 | 20 | | 棕榈油：短期技术反弹，等待产量拐点确认 | 28 | | 豆油：美豆驱动有限，区间震荡运行 | 28 | | 豆粕：关注中方采购美豆情况，盘面震荡 | 34 | | 豆一：关注中美贸易情绪，盘面震荡 | 34 | | 玉米：高位震荡 | 39 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 45 | | 棉花：短期震荡偏强 | 52 | | 生猪：限仓驱动期现背离，产业逻辑将回归 | 59 | | 花生：关注现货 | 65 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 不锈钢：库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍 ...

期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 随着中美贸易政策博弈尘埃落定，市场逻辑已从前期的政策驱动逐步回归基本面主导。供应端来看，本年度巴西大豆丰产为我国提供 了充足的进口来源，国内油厂大豆及豆粕库存均攀升至历史高位，市场供应呈现宽松格局。尽管未来美国大豆进口预期有所改善，但 豆粕价格并未出现大幅回落，核心原因在于...... 定价逻辑切换，静待供需改善 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询号：Z0023055 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询号：Z0023045 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 期货研究报告 | 饲料年报 2025-11-30 定价逻辑切换，静待供需改善 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of production capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3][9] - The report identifies several investment opportunities across different segments of the agriculture industry, including pig farming, feed, planting, and pet food sectors [3][32] Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The report notes a significant reduction in breeding sows, with the number decreasing to 39.9 million heads by the end of October 2025, a month-on-month decline of 1.1% and a year-on-year decline of 2.1% [9] - October saw a substantial increase in pig slaughtering, with 38.34 million pigs processed, representing a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 26.2% [9] - The average price for market pigs dropped to 12.27 yuan/kg in October, down 11% month-on-month and 32.4% year-on-year, indicating a challenging profitability environment for the industry [9][40] Feed Sector - The report indicates that raw material prices for feed are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices averaging 2329.8 yuan/ton, up 2.17% week-on-week, and soybean meal prices at 3107.43 yuan/ton, up 1.04% week-on-week [21][40] Planting Chain - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the planting and seed industry, with grain prices on an upward trend, highlighting significant investment opportunities in large-scale planting [3][32] Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry is experiencing growth, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and continuous market expansion, presenting investment opportunities in leading companies [3][32]

02 期现市场 05 需求端 蛋白粕周报 2025/11/29 南美降雨可能恢复， 大豆进口成本震荡 斯小伟（农产品组） 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F03114441 交易咨询号： Z0022498 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利润及库存 03 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 国际大豆：本周美豆震荡为主，中国持续购买及其国内库销比偏低提供支撑，但全球大豆库销比较高施压上方空间。本周巴西升贴水调涨15 美分/蒲左右，大豆到港成本上涨。巴西主要种植区11月同比偏干，不过12月初预计降雨恢复，然而东南部产区预计降雨量持续较少，产区 还未达到一帆风顺。USDA预测全球大豆供需格局由供需双增转换成供减需增，全球大豆预测年度库销比从2024年10月的33%落回到目前的 28.94%，这为全球大豆提供了底部支撑，但因为同比仍较高，尚不足以产生CBOT大豆盘面种植利润丰厚的行情，预计在南美天气没有出现显 著问题背景下大豆到港成本仍然震荡为主。 国内双粕：本周国内豆粕现货震荡，基差震荡，期货盘面跟随成本窄幅波动，油厂买船利润小幅亏损。国内豆粕成交尚可，提货处于 ...

饲料养殖周度报告 国内主要饲料养殖期现货价格走势 | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | 现货价格 | 品 | 种 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 主力合约 | 周变动 | 现货指标 | 周变动 | 2025/11/27 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/27 | 2025/11/20 | （%) | （%) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 豆粕 | ： | 43%蛋 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 粕 | 豆 | 白 | 汇总 | M2601 | 3055 | 3017 | 38 | 00 | 1 | 26 | 3010 | 29 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - International soybean new - crop supply is improving, while domestic soybean meal supply faces significant pressure [2]. - The subsequent price of US soybeans is mainly influenced by the weather in South American producing areas. The new - crop supply increase of international soybeans mainly comes from Brazil, and the international soybean price may be more affected by the growth of Brazilian soybeans [4]. - Domestic soybean meal is currently in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, with a possible slight improvement in inventory pressure, but the driving effect on the market may be limited. There is significant uncertainty in future supply and demand [4]. - The future of domestic rapeseed meal is mainly affected by demand. Currently, demand is average, and inventory is high. If the price of soybean meal rises, rapeseed meal may have some upward potential [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary Market Review - US soybeans showed a high - level oscillation in November. They rose due to improved export prospects and a downward adjustment of crop yield in the early stage, and then entered an oscillation and adjustment phase [3]. - The domestic soybean meal market also oscillated at a high level, influenced by cost - side changes and domestic supply [3]. - The domestic rapeseed meal market oscillated. It rose in the early stage due to uncertain rapeseed supply but declined later because of average demand and high granular rapeseed meal inventory [3]. Market Outlook - The subsequent price of US soybeans is mainly affected by the weather in South American producing areas. The new - crop supply increase of international soybeans mainly comes from Brazil [4]. - Domestic soybean meal is currently in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, with a possible slight improvement in inventory pressure and limited upward potential for the market [4]. - The future of domestic rapeseed meal is mainly affected by demand. Currently, demand is average, and inventory is high. If the price of soybean meal rises, rapeseed meal may have some upward potential [4]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: As weather influence increases, it is recommended to buy long positions in soybean and rapeseed meal on dips [6][57]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to buy long positions in M35 on dips [6][57]. - Options: It is recommended to buy a bull call spread [6][57]. 2. International Soybean Fundamental Situation US Soybeans: Slight Improvement in Exports and Inventory Pressure - The monthly supply - demand report in November was generally bullish, with a downward adjustment of yield from 53.5 bushels per acre to 53 bushels per acre and a downward adjustment of export estimates to 1.635 billion bushels [8]. - By November 16, the US soybean harvest progress reached 95%. Since November, the weather in US producing areas has been relatively dry. Exports and crushing have improved significantly [8]. - From November 18 - 24, US private exporters exported 1.707 million tons of soybeans to China. In October, the estimated US soybean crushing volume was about 227.647 million bushels [9]. Brazil: Limited Pressure on Old - crop and Loose Supply - demand for New - crop - The Brazilian monthly supply - demand report mainly adjusted new - crop data, with a slight downward revision of new - crop output to 177.602 million tons, an increase in exports to 112.108 million tons, and an increase in ending inventory [20]. - The pressure on old - crop soybeans is expected to be normal. In November, the estimated export volume was about 4.4 million tons, and the cumulative export is expected to reach 109 million tons [21]. - As of November 22, the Brazilian soybean sowing progress was about 78%, lower than the historical average. Dry weather has slowed down sowing, but the impact on growth is expected to be limited [26]. Argentina: Reduced Pressure on Old - crop Supply and Commencement of New - crop Sowing - In October, the soybean crushing volume in Argentina was about 4.3 million tons, and the export volume was 1.6 million tons. The pressure on old - crop supply is expected to decrease [30]. - From April to October, the domestic soybean selling progress was about 65%. The remaining sellable quantity is estimated to be 17.5 million tons, with a monthly average consumption of about 3.5 million tons from November to March next year [30]. - In November, Argentine soybean exports are expected to decline, and the export price has risen. The crushing profit has continued to decline, and the crushing volume is expected to decrease [31]. 3. Domestic Meal Fundamental Situation Soybean Meal: Improved Spot Market but Persistent Supply Pressure - In October, the soybean crushing volume and soybean meal pick - up volume reached record highs, driven by high domestic soybean inventory, good market demand, and normal crushing profit [35]. - In November, the domestic crushing volume was lower than expected but still at a high level. The soybean meal market maintained strong pick - up momentum, but there was obvious inventory accumulation pressure [36]. - The domestic soybean meal spot basis declined by 10 - 20 yuan/ton in most regions compared to the end of last month. Both spot and basis trading volumes increased significantly [36]. Soybean Meal: Expected Decline in Crushing Volume and Gradual Reduction of Inventory - The balance sheet predicts that domestic soybean meal inventory will gradually decline in the coming months due to a significant reduction in supply caused by losses in crushing profit and limited imports of US soybeans [47]. - Although the crushing profit has slightly recovered, it remains significantly in the red, and the subsequent improvement space is limited. The supply pressure in Brazil is not obvious, and the export volume may decline further [48]. Rapeseed Meal: Low Inventory and Persistent Price Pressure - The domestic rapeseed meal market has remained stable this month, with no spot trading and limited trading volume of granular rapeseed meal [49]. - There is no new import of rapeseed this month, and the crushing volume is low. Only the inventory of granular rapeseed meal is relatively high [49]. - In the short - term, the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to remain stable, but in the long - term, if there is no new import of rapeseed, the supply will tighten [49]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis and Future Outlook Comprehensive Analysis - International soybeans are expected to oscillate at a high level this month. There is still some pressure on US soybeans, but the supply in South America is relatively small. If the weather in Brazil improves, international soybeans may decline [55][57]. - Domestic soybean meal will remain in a state of relatively loose supply and demand in the future. The price is mainly affected by the cost side and crushing profit. If the weather in Brazil does not improve, the price may rise [57]. - The rapeseed meal market is mainly affected by soybean meal. Currently, demand is average, and inventory is high. If the fundamentals of soybean meal do not change significantly, rapeseed meal demand will remain weak, and prices will be under pressure [57]. Strategy Analysis - Unilateral: As weather influence increases, it is recommended to buy long positions in soybean and rapeseed meal on dips [6][57]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to buy long positions in M35 on dips [6][57]. - Options: It is recommended to buy a bull call spread [6][57].

油料周报 油料产业周报 2025/11/28 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司 ...