今年第1号台风"蝴蝶"持续引发关注。 中央气象台12日18时继续发布台风黄色预警。台风"蝴蝶"的中心今天下午5点钟位于海南省三亚市 南偏东方向大约110公里的南海中西部海面上。预计，"蝴蝶"将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西北转偏 北方向移动，强度逐渐加强，即将于13日早晨到上午在海南三亚至乐东一带沿海登陆，14日早晨到上午 在广东徐闻到广西北海再次登陆，登陆后转向东北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。 从中央气象台历史统计来看，历年1号台风平均生成日期为3月25日，今年已偏晚两个多月。 "初台"一般是指当年首个登陆我国的台风。据中央气象台统计，"初台"的常年平均(1991至2020年) 日期为6月27日。一旦台风"蝴蝶"登陆，按照目前预报的登陆时间6月13日来看，将较常年平均日期偏 早。 台风姗姗来迟，会是在偷偷蓄力"憋大招"吗？12日，中国气象局举行线上媒体通气会，中央气象台 首席预报员张玲表示，这一说法没有科学依据。 张玲指出，台风的生成受到季风、西太平洋副热带高压、太阳运动等多种条件的影响。台风的活跃 季一般是每年的7月到10月，目前预测的今年台风整体活动，是正常的情况。后续气象部门也将密切关 注台风的发生、发展 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that as of the end of May, no tropical cyclones have formed in the Northwest Pacific, marking a rare occurrence in the past 76 years, potentially becoming the seventh year with a "zero typhoon" start from January to May [1][3] - Historical statistics indicate that the average formation date for the first typhoon is March 25, and this year is over two months late [3] - The absence of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere, including the North Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, is noted, with only the Northeast Pacific generating its first tropical cyclone on May 29 [3] Group 2 - The delay in typhoon formation has both positive and potential negative implications [4] - Positively, the late arrival of typhoons can reduce the risk of disaster overlap caused by frequent typhoons, benefiting agricultural stability and safety in fishing operations [5] - Conversely, the lack of typhoons can exacerbate drought conditions, as they typically bring much-needed rainfall, and their absence may lead to increased agricultural pest issues and higher management costs [5]