Core Viewpoint - The market predicts a GDP growth rate of 5.0%-5.4% for the first quarter, but the company forecasts it to be between 5.0%-5.1% due to narrow tracking indicators, low representativeness, and price disturbances in nominal indicators [1][8]. Group 1: Common Misconceptions - Misconception 1: The narrow sample range of tracking indicators fails to accurately analyze changes in the supply side of the economy. The commonly used industrial value-added growth rate overlooks the decline in small-scale industrial performance, with large-scale industrial value-added growth at 5.9% in January-February, while small-scale industrial growth is weaker [2][9]. - Misconception 2: The focus on industrial and commodity consumption in the first quarter ignores the weak performance of the service sector, which accounts for 56.7% of GDP compared to 30% for industry. Service retail and production growth rates fell to 4.9% and 5.6%, respectively [2][17]. - Misconception 3: The analysis of GDP growth using industrial and service production ignores the impact of fiscal spending and the decline in construction production. Public budget expenditure and related government consumption growth rates fell to 3.4% and 4.1%, respectively, which will also drag down GDP growth [3][27]. Group 2: Low Representativeness of Traditional Indicators - Consumption: Social retail does not equate to resident consumption, as social group retail significantly distorts the overall performance of social retail, accounting for 44% of the total [4][37]. - Investment: Fixed investment growth does not necessarily indicate strong GDP investment growth, as land acquisition costs are not included in GDP calculations. The rebound in fixed investment growth is primarily due to land acquisition costs, while construction investment growth fell to 1.1% [4][43]. - Inventory: Industrial enterprise inventory is only part of the total social inventory, with weaker channel inventory often overlooked. The market typically tracks industrial inventory but neglects small enterprise and wholesale/retail inventory performance [4][52]. Group 3: Nominal vs. Real Growth Rates - The market's confusion over social retail, investment, and export growth rates being lower than actual GDP growth rates stems from ignoring the differences between nominal and real indicators. Nominal values have been affected by declining PPI and export price indices, leading to lower nominal growth rates [6][56]. - In terms of external demand, the decline in PPI has dragged down export prices, with actual export growth significantly higher than nominal growth. For 2024, the export price is expected to drop by 5.5%, while nominal export growth remains at a high of 5.6%, indicating strong actual growth [6][57]. - For internal demand, the significant decline in PPI has also affected fixed investment prices, but the actual fixed asset investment growth rate remains robust at 5.6%, which is higher than the actual GDP growth rate [6][65].